Week 13 DVOA Rankings

via media.signonsandiego.com

It's that time of the week again. The Football Outsiders Week 13 DVOA Rankings have been released, and there's some good news, middling news, and some bad news for the Chargers. I bet you all can guess which is which. I know everyone isn't a fan of DVOA, and I'm well aware of its flaws, but I think it's pretty interesting to see what it says about where the Chargers stand in the NFL.

First, the bad news. As many likely predicted, the San Diego defense has plummeted even further down the list. The Chargers rank # 25, falling from #19 last week. Their weighted mark is only a couple spots better, #22. The pass defense is #20, and the rush defense is #27. This pretty much confirms the sentiment many of us got while watching the game Sunday that our defense was not very good. The opponent adjustment probably hurt here as well, given that they surrendered so many yards and points to the 28th best offense in the league. I realize that they were without three starters, but when you remember that one of those starters is going to miss at least one more game and the other two might as well, the abysmal performance of our backups against a terrible offense doesn't do much to inspire confidence going into the next three games. I think Wonko's comment a couple days ago is apt--our best defense is our offense, which can throw up points real fast and force other teams to abandon the run and throw every down. This leads me to the good news...

 

The San Diego offense continues to climb the charts. Last week the Chargers ranked #7 in offensive efficiency, while this week they move up to #5, with a weighted mark of #4, behind only New Orleans, New England, and Indianapolis. The Chargers also sport the #1 passing offense in the NFL, and it's not close anymore, with the Patriots being almost 10% behind San Diego in passing DVOA. So what's dragging the Chargers down? San Diego's rushing attack is #30 in football, better only than Chicago and Kansas City. While it hurts, the fact that the overall offense ranks so high is a testament to just how good Philip Rivers, his receivers, and his offensive line have been.

So what's the middling news? These two phases of the game mostly cancel each other out, leaving the Chargers again just about middle of the pack in overall team efficiency. There's been no movement from last week in overall DVOA (#13) or weighted DVOA (#12). Overall, the team remains slightly above average. FO head honcho Aaron Schatz finds it strange that despite this, the Chargers are tied with the Bengals for the 4th best record in football:

San Diego, allegedly the "hot team nobody wants to play in the postseason," is just 13th despite a 9-3 record. This warrants more analysis, but I've sort of run out of time and space for this week, so we'll analyze it next week, either in Any Given Sunday (if they lose to the Cowboys) or the DVOA Analysis (if they beat the Cowboys).

The fact that the Chargers are 9-3 instead of 7-5 or 6-6 is, to me, explainable by the awesomeness that is Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson, and Antonio Gates. They've likely helped San Diego win two or three more games than they should have (the first Oakland and New York games immediately come to mind). While it's nice to have this, it means that the margin for error on offense is razor-thin. Philip and his guys can't make very many mistakes, and the fact that they largely haven't made mistakes is probably why the team has gone on this streak. Whether that's sustainable or not, I have no idea. I'd like to think it is, but it doesn't bode well for the Chargers heading into the playoffs against another good team that also doesn't make lots of mistakes.

In the playoff odds department, the Chargers picked up another 5.4%, and now have a 97.6% chance of making the playoffs, as well as a 53.2% chance of securing a bye, which is the highest in the AFC behind the Colts. The hated Denver Broncos also significantly improved their playoff odds, and now stand at 92.9%, with 63.7% chance of securing a wild card berth.

San Diego skill players on offense continue to lead their respective positions. Philip Rivers now leads all quarterbacks in DVOA (value per play), and is #4 in DYAR (overall value) behind only Brady, Manning and Brees. He had the third best overall quarterback performance this week, and FO had this to say about Phil's performance in Cleveland:

In another weird down split, Rivers' first pass on second down was an incompletion to Antonio Gates. Suitably chastened, he promptly completed each of his other nine attempts on second down, gaining a total of 219 yards and picking up either a first down or a touchdown on each of the passes. That's nothing new for Rivers; 66.1 percent of his completions have resulted in either first downs or touchdowns, the highest such percentage in the league for any starting quarterback. Mark Sanchez is second at 64.6 percent; competing for last (minimum: 50 attempts) are 49ers quarterbacks Alex Smith and Shaun Hill, at 46.3 percent and 44.8 percent, respectively.

Antonio Gates leads all NFL tight ends in DYAR, and the disparity between him and the #2 tight end (Dallas Clark) isn't even close.

After a year off with various maladies, Gates has returned to the elite level of play he was at from 2004 through 2007. His total of 994 yards is already his second-best total as a pro, and he'll have four more games to get past his career high of 1101, set in 2005. The difference is that Gates is still only at four touchdowns this year despite having eight or more in each of the last five seasons. With plenty of options available near the goal line, though, the Chargers will be happy with the extra yards, even at the cost of fewer touchdowns.

Vincent Jackson has regained his place as the top wide receiver in both DYAR and DVOA, though he didn't rate among the top five receiver performance this weekend, and so wasn't mentioned.