The Uncapped Year Is Coming

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Baseball players actually earn a higher percentage of league revenues that players do in any other sport. One might argue that the changes the owners are making would benefit the players, especially if the Cowboys, Giants, Redskins etc. can outspend. The problem for the players however are these restricted free agency rules. NFL players experience shorter careers than baseball players and by the time they got to free agency there wouldn’t be much reason for the owners to spend a ton of money on these guys. In baseball, one of the keys to building a successful franchise that wasn’t really understood by teams until late this decade is that you must draft well and get the maximum amount of value out of your players before they reach free agency. In the NFL, it seems to me that this is already happening. The majority of playoff team’s core players are guys that haven’t reached free agency yet and trying to keep together a core of guys that get old together ends up with an Kansas City Chiefs-like implosion (or more historically an early-2000s Tennessee Titans implosion). So, I’m not exactly sure how the small market teams would necessarily get priced out of the best players.

As for the smaller markets just tanking it and not spending money, it seems like if they were going to do that they would do it under revenue sharing where they’d just spend to the salary floor collect the revenue sharing check and let the fans suffer. If they try not to spend money under no revenue sharing then unless their fans basically treat the team like a local charity their operating profits will sink. I think the problem may be with teams that are run poorly by accident like the 2000s Lions under Millen. Teams like this would dig themselves such a deep hole revenue-wise from lack of attendance and revenue sharing that they won’t have the money to sign the top picks that they are being given. This will keep them as a talentless team for so long that the franchise won’t be viable business anymore.

Basically, a system without revenue sharing makes the teams more responsible for getting attendance figures and merchandise sales high. That doesn’t seem like such a bad thing to me. Teams like Pittsburgh and GB who are in small markets will do fine under this system as long as they continue to sell out games and given their passionate fan base that seems likely. However, teams like Jacksonville and Arizona might run into trouble, but that’s more of a sign that the NFL doesn’t really belong in those cities in the first place (especially Jacksonville) and revenue sharing was basically a crutch to make it look otherwise.

That to avoid the uncapped 2010 they need a new CBA before the free agent signing period begins. However, if you recall in 2006 they had something similar where they needed to do something before the free agent signing period began and they basically just delayed the start of that period until they hammered it out. I do not foresee the owners even coming to the negotiating table to revamp the CBA before 2010 at this point.

For 2011 the lockout would basically start at the conclusion of the Super Bowl. It remains to be seen if either will want to come to the bargaining table before that. Usually, waiting until the last minute for these things helps one side get leverage, however I’m not sure who would gain that leverage in this case.

In the last 25 years, baseball has seen 16 champions, football only 13.
In the last 20 years, they are tied with 12.
In the last 10 years, baseball has 8 and football 7.

I don’t think the salary structure will have that much of an effect on league champion diversity. And, as I keep saying (and nobody has a counter-argument yet), I just don’t see where this extra money gets spent. Free agents won’t be available until they are near the end of their primes.There will still be a draft, so there won’t really have an opportunity to pay higher prices for young talent without drafted players going all Eli Manning (and the NFL already wants to slot the draft picks salaries). I guess they could outbid everyone for RFAs and give up draft picks, but you can only get one of those a year because you only have one 1st round pick. It will be tough for a team to spend its way to a championship.

dat is just ruining da perfect sport

I’ve seen some things that say that if the franchise tag is withdrawn that the player becomes a UFA, but I think that assumes that he would be eligible for UFA. Sproles will not be eligible for UFA under the new rules, and I can’t seem to find anything that covers that corner case.

And pay him big bucks to come here?