Chargers 2009 Draft Grade Revisions
The current philosophy in the NFL, as it relates to the draft, seems to be that in the first two rounds you can get NFL-ready players. I think in this year's draft, with more kids than ever playing football and coaching getting better at the high school and college levels, that was extended to the first three rounds. After that, you're looking for guys with flaws that you think you can fix. These guys may one day become good, or even great, but there's a chance they never amount to anything as well. These are called "Project Picks".
Looking through the first 2 rounds of pick for the Chargers in the past few seasons, you'll see names like Antoine Cason, Eric Weddle, Antonio Cromartie, Marcus McNeill, Shawne Merriman, Luis Castillo, Philip Rivers and Igor Olshansky. That's not all of them, but that's most of them. Each of these players had an impact in their rookie seasons, either as a starter or a backup, and (if they didn't already start as rookie) eventually forced the team's hand in getting rid of the incumbent to get them more time on the field. Cason's not there yet, but that's mostly due to the play of Cromartie and Quentin Jammer (another recent first rounder) rather than his own drawbacks.
So, in this year's draft, the Chargers went in with more holes than usual. There were holes along both lines, and the team needed to look for help at RB, LB and Safety. This was not the draft to be spending first-rounders or even third-rounders on "projects" that wouldn't see the field in year one. This was the time to find players that would make an immediate impact. How did the Chargers do?
Larry English, OLB, N. Illinois (Round 1, Pick 16 - 16th Overall)
In my initial review of the picks, I said that Larry English reminded me of Shawne Merriman and hoped he would be a ferocious pass-rusher when he got on the field. One thing that I didn't notice at the time: wingspan.
I've always known that a long wingspan helps pass-rushers just as much as it helps pass-blockers. The war at the line of scrimmage is all hands and arms. Elvis Dumervil is 5'11" (3 inches shorter than English), but reportedly (they don't keep stats on such things) has the wingspan of a 6'7" man. Merriman (2 inches taller than English) is built like a MAC truck, and his arms are long as hell (I saw reports of 8' wingspan).
You can tell wingspan is important when you start seeing it come up in scouting reports. Looking back at the pre-draft scouting reports on English, I should've noticed that just about all of them have (tucked away in the middle of a sentence usually) either "average wingspan" or "below average wingspan" in their description of him. I think this has been his biggest weakness, and unfortunately is not something that he can change.
Now, add in the fact that Larry is coming from a small school (NIU) where he faced lesser competition, and add in the position change from full-time 4-3 DE to 3-4 OLB. English was anything but a sure-thing in the NFL, which makes him a project in my book.
Looking back on the post-draft analysis that's out there, you see a lot of people commending the Chargers for finding depth behind Merriman and then saying something like "They were able to get a good pass-rusher in a draft where they're at a premium." To me it all adds up to this: Larry English should've been a 2nd rounder, which is really a mixed bag between NFL-ready players with average potential (Olshansky) and projects with incredible potential (Vincent Jackson). He falls somewhere in between those two groupings. However, to make sure they weren't left with nothing, the Chargers had to use a higher pick to secure a pass-rusher.
Career Outlook: My initial 2009 outlook on English didn't state anything more than he would be on the field plenty, which he has been. As much as I've been critical of him, and I don't expect Larry to ever be a dominating pass-rusher, I do think that his motor is good enough to make him a future starter at OLB and it will keep some of those broken-plays that tend to happen in the playoffs from happening to the Chargers. So that's good.
Pick Grade: B+ D (The Patriots showed in their draft that there were plenty of people willing to trade up in the first round. The Chargers would've been better off moving down, where they still could've gotten English or Clay Matthews, and trying to secure another 3rd round pick.)
Louis Vasquez, OG, Texas Tech (Round 3, Pick 14 - 78th Overall)
This was a project pick that has turned into a great one. Not only has Vasquez been a very capable starter, he has improved throughout the season (credit the O-line coach as well as the other O-linemen). Considering the Chargers gave first crack at the RG spot to Kynan Forney, I doubt they expected Vasquez to see this much time on the field this early. Also, since Louis told BFTB that he had never even spoken to San Diego it's doubtful that they knew he could run-block at all. This was a pick for the future that, lucky for the Chargers, has worked wonderfully in the present.
Career Outlook: Vasquez is Marcus McNeill Part II. Let's just hope that he can keep up this level of play, or get better, and that he stays a Charger for his entire career.
Pick Grade: B A (If the draft was re-done today, I think Vasquez would go in the second round.)
Vaughn Martin, DT, Western Ontario (Round 4, Pick 13 - 113th Overall)
I love this pick more and more as time goes on. After the draft I criticized it for being a reach, with many pre-draft analyses predicting Martin to go in the 7th round or being an UDFA. However, we're into the 4th round so it's "project time" and you really can't find a better project pick than Vaughn. He has everything: size, speed, strength, work ethic, character. Like Vincent Jackson, all Martin really needs is some refining, coaching and experience.
AJ Smith (and the late John Butler) is the King of finding players that nobody knew about and turning them into stars. He doesn't just get guys in that have potential, but somehow gets guys in that almost always eventually live up to that potential. I have seen steady progress from Vaughn, and the idea of a Martin/Castillo/Jamal Williams defensive look next season must have the team's LB's chomping at the bit.
Career Outlook: The next 8-9 months may be the most important time of Vaughn's life. I think he's played well enough in the past few weeks that he'll be active and on the field in the playoffs. If he can show some ability, mixed with consistency, in that environment the team will be eager to unleash him on the rest of the NFL as a starter next season. How hard he works in the offseason, when he'll really have a chance to catch up to the rest of the league, will do the rest.
A lot of the analysis on Vaughn at this point is opinionated and formed just by what I see when he's on the field. He hasn't produced much in the way of stats, but he's playing infrequently at a position that doesn't normally put up a lot of stats to begin with. I personally think he's a starter in 2010 and a difference-maker for his career if he can stay healthy.
Pick Grade: D B+
Tyronne Green, C OG, Auburn (Round 4, Pick 33 - 133rd Overall)
Can you see the trend of projects? Every pick comes with flaws. English has a number of them, Vasquez didn't know how to run-block/pull-block, Vaughn Martin might as well have been Bigfoot for all anybody knew. Now we make our way to Green, who was a pretty good Guard and was drafted to be Hardwick's replacement at Center. Based off the fact that nobody saw him play any Center for SD outside of training camp, and the Chargers have signed two off-the-street guys to be the backup Centers, I'm going to say that this project didn't work out so well. Green still has potential to eventually take over for Scott Mruczkowski as the future backup G/C, but if it's going to happen it's going to take some time.
Career Outlook: Best-case scenario for Tyronne is probably as a career backup.
Pick Grade: A C- (Something really bugs me about this pick now. This is Nick Hardwick's third straight season where he's missed time due to an injury. Jeremy Newberry obviously wasn't coming back. Getting a legitimate backup Center needed to be a priority. Instead, the Chargers try to fill the role with another "project" pick and have to scramble to move Mooch to Center when the project doesn't work out, which made their depth at OG that much worse. I would've rather they sign a FA Center to backup Hardwick and use this pick on something else.)
Gartrell Johnson, RB, Colorado St. (Round 4, Pick 34 - 134th Overall)
I still like Gartrell, but he no longer fits in the Chargers offense. He wasn't much of a receiver out of the backfield, his pass-blocking was poor (even for a rookie) and there was zero chance of a big play from him when he had the ball in his hands. He's a much better fit for a grinding, run-focused team like the Giants that is just happy to consistently get 4 yard carries.
Looking back, for the reasons why he doesn't really fit with the Chargers offense, this was a silly pick. However, with the possible exception of James Davis, by the time it had gotten to the 134th pick there weren't many good RBs left. This is a big reason why I'm pushing for the Chargers to use a 1st (or at least 2nd) rounder on a RB this season to replace LaDainian Tomlinson. There were only two good RBs that were taken in the 3rd round (Glen Coffee and Shonn Greene), both had questionable hands and Coffee was taken with the 10th pick in that round (which the Chargers have no shot at).
Career Outlook: Certainly not the future Brandon Jacobs, as I had foolishly predicted. Gartrell might have a career as a goal-line RB somewhere, but it's not with the Chargers.
Pick Grade: B D (The Chargers could've had Donald Brown, Beanie Wells or LeSean McCoy in the first round. All would've been better fits and NFL-ready. They waited too long to take a RB and were left with nothing.)
Brandon Hughes, CB, Oregon St. (Round 5, Pick 12 - 148th Overall)
I really hated this pick the day after the draft, but this is why I'm not a GM. Hughes went on IR in the preseason, and at his size he may have a hard time staying healthy in the NFL, but before he did he proved himself to be a very good all-around corner with excellent feet and very good ball skills. Hughes may have been the only player in this Chargers draft that wasn't a "project" in the sense that he wasn't being asked to switch positions or do anything he wasn't already doing in college.
Career Outlook: If he could stay healthy he has a future somewhere as a nickel CB. With the Chargers being more set at Safety in 2010 (Weddle, Oliver, Ellison....maybe Spillman), there will be a roster spot opening up. Whether or not Hughes makes the team, and plays in San Diego in 2010, has everything to do with how the team views Steve Gregory and what Antoine Cason does in the playoffs/offseason/training camp.
Pick Grade: D- C
Kevin Ellison, S, USC (Round 6, Pick 16 - 189th Overall)
The scouting report on Ellison was that he was very good at covering TEs, but if he ever got matched up on a RB or WR he would be burnt toast. Enter Ron Rivera, who has basically turned Ellison into a guy that's either blitzing or covering the TE in man coverage (even if the rest of the team is playing zone). One of my favorite looks is a crazy Dime, with Weddle and Paul Oliver playing the deep safeties and Ellison playing the role at the 4th CB that matches up against the opposing TE. It's brilliant really.
Is Kevin Ellison a full-time starting SS for the Chargers? Not really. Depending on the play-call he can be a CB (against TEs), a deep-cover Safety (rare), a blitzing Safety (up-the-middle) or a pass-rushing OLB (which is when you see him "blitzing" as Shaun Phillips or Kevin Burnett drop into coverage on his side). His versatility, along with Phillips', is what has been driving Ron Rivera and the defense and it's not unlike the role that was played by Brian Dawkins in a very similar scheme in Philly.
Career Outlook: In my 2009 outlook for Kevin, I said "Even if Ellison doesn't win the job out of camp, he could be the starter by the end of the season." Well, he's the starter at SS because he plays most of the snaps there. However, at least this early in his career, what's giving him the most success is having a Defensive Coordinator that knows how to use him. If Rivera leaves in the offseason, I don't know that Ellison is nearly as effective and may not even be the starting SS anymore.
Pick Grade: B- A (finding a potential Brian Dawkins clone in the 6th round is amazing.)
Demetrius Byrd, WR, LSU (Round 7, Pick 15 - 224th Overall)
We still know very little about Demetrius' health and how it has effected his ability to play football. I think he'll be given a chance to be the 4th WR next season, but his chances of getting that spot and making the team depend on if he can get back to where he was before the accident and what happens with Malcom Floyd, Vincent Jackson and Buster Davis.
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44 comments
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Comments
Very nice in-depth stuff man...
Still sad that Chargers didnt go for a Running back last year :(
Hopefully Vaughn Martin starts next year.. I saw him play quite a bit and he was such a monster (I live in Canada and go to western)… supposedly hes a pretty nice guy as well, some of my buds know him.
Loving the Louis Vasquez and Kevin Ellison picks. Hopefully Byrd comes back healthy, he was pretty sick at LSU
Very nice guy
“You spend some time with him…..you fall in love with him.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRnY_9XicMY
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Dec 30, 2009 6:22 AM PST up reply actions
Wow,
He seriously played some runningback in Canada.
I have always liked this pick, I am always a big advocate of bolstering a D-line.
Anatidaephobia-Fear that a Duck is watching you. Pryor, come January 1st, there will be millions watching you. We are banking on your overwhelming football prowess, blessed Juju.
FB
It was the “Fridge” formation.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Dec 30, 2009 9:40 AM PST up reply actions
Well,
I think our power back problems are finally solved!
Of course, not really.
Anatidaephobia-Fear that a Duck is watching you. Pryor, come January 1st, there will be millions watching you. We are banking on your overwhelming football prowess, blessed Juju.
overall good draft
I think overall, the best pick was Vasquez. As we’ve seen this year, Oline was the biggest issue. Vasquez is awesome. Before the season started I knew he would be amazing. That and I’m glad to see more latinos in the NFL. Ellison is in my opinion the second best pick, with English being the 3rd best. I hope the first pick next year is either someone capable of replacing Jamal Williams or, if something happens with Merriman and/or Jackson, we’ll need something for those two.
by Superduperboltman on Dec 30, 2009 7:56 AM PST reply actions
Nice analysis. I would give a higher grade for English because although he’s no Merriman he is not a glaring weakness and he’s healthy. Finding someone who can play that position and be effective and healthy is really hard. UFDAs at that position are a huge drop-off.
And english would not have been available later. And the patriots traded out of the 1st round right after English got picked. I heard somebody say that was the only guy they wanted
by not humble enough on Dec 30, 2009 8:08 AM PST reply actions
Finding someone who can play that position and be effective and healthy is really hard
Being healthy is easy when you’re playing less than 10 snaps per game, and I could argue that he hasn’t been very effective at all. About as effective as Jyles Tucker or Marques Harris.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Dec 30, 2009 8:12 AM PST up reply actions
that makes sense. hopefully he develops an inside move and a bull rush (i kinda know what those are) this off-season
by not humble enough on Dec 30, 2009 12:11 PM PST up reply actions
Inside moves take wingspan. Any inside move (spin, swim, rip, etc.), in it’s most basic form, is “get inside the tackle, extend arms out to push him out while sliding towards the QB”. I’m not saying English is incapable of doing it, but it’s going to be hard for him. I don’t even know that he has the speed to be an edge-rusher, even in the 3-4. His only hope is to work on developing a great bull-rush, because he has the type of body that he could be great at it.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Dec 30, 2009 12:23 PM PST up reply actions
English
He has been a bit of a disappointment this year. But remember that it is reasonable to take 3 years to evaluate a drafted player, especially with a guy like English who is coming from a small program. I think we will get a more accurate read next year on whether he is going to justify his 1st round pick or whether he will be nothing more than Tucker++.
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Dec 30, 2009 9:51 AM PST reply actions
I don’t buy the 3 years to evaluate a player. I think it’s 3 years to see the palyer reach his potential, but he should show me at least flashes of talent early on. I’ve seen nothing from Larry. At this point, I wouldn’t categorize him as being better than Tucker.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Dec 30, 2009 10:42 AM PST up reply actions
I think it depends on the position the player plays and where they came from
Vincent Jackson is a classic example. Coming from a small school and playing a demanding position. It took his 2+ years before everything came together for him. I know I was pissed every time Rivers threw him the ball until about half way through that 2007 season. VJ didn’t fight for the ball, didn’t use his big body to his advantage, and had suspect hands. Then, one magical day, it all came together for him (or so it seemed in my mind :-) and we’ve had the current VJ ever since.
The OLB is less demanding scheme-wise than WR so we would expect to see more from English early on, but he did have a position change to deal with and he does have the big jump from MAC to NFL to deal with. It’s possible we could have seen some flashes this year, but I think it is more appropriate to give him an off-season to assimilate everything he has learned and see what he shows us early next year.
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Dec 30, 2009 11:40 AM PST up reply actions
VJ was a known project
Every drat report on VJ said that a team would draft him high due to his upside. I didn’t see one report that thought h could make an impact in his first couple of years. English on the other hand was never listed as a project and it was thought that he’d be getting sacks in no time. Apples and oranges.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
I'm pretty disappointed in English.
The pass rush isn’t really improved at all over last year, which is what AJ claimed to be addressing with this pick. I wouldn’t be opposed to going after another premium pass-rusher SOMEWHERE, especially if Merriman is no longer with the team, or still isn’t the player he once was.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 30, 2009 6:30 PM PST up reply actions
Can't do it now
Too much money invested in English/Tucker to use another high draft pick (which is what it would take) on a pass-rusher. I honestly liked what I saw from Applewhite. If he’s given a legitimate chance, I could see him at least splitting time with English.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Dec 30, 2009 6:35 PM PST up reply actions
Can't we
Just release Tucker. Without a cap there’d be no penalty to just terminating his contract.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Tucker
He isnt making that much, you act as if he is getting big money. Tucker’s contract was back loaded with incentives, we could easily just cut him. In fact I bet we will considering he cant cover kicks.
8/25/2008: Signed a five-year, $14.65 million contract. The deal includes $6.5 million guaranteed and $4.5 million in escalators. 2009: $460,000, 2010: $570,000, 2011: $1 million, 2012: $1.225 million, 2013: Free Agent
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_contract.aspx?sport=NFl&id=4579
I don't understand what AJ was thinking with that contract.
I know he’s privy to information we aren’t, like practice performance and such, but it sure seemed like he gave Tucker that deal based on one good game vs. the Raiders at the end of 2007.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 30, 2009 7:45 PM PST up reply actions
Low Risk High Reward
For every one of those contracts there’s one like Gregory’s
8/25/2008: Signed a four-year, $4.8 million contract. The deal includes $2 million guaranteed. 2009: $535,000, 2010: $800,000, 2011: $1.02 million, 2012: Free Agent
I personally dont mind this approach, as long as you hit more than miss.
def impressed with Applewhite
i hated that he got hurt and didn’t get more playing time.
by boltsgamedayfootball on Dec 31, 2009 5:03 AM PST up reply actions
Their Adjusted Sack Rate has gone fro 5.6% to 6.3% this year.
Bolts from the Blue // "I have got to be the most boring GM in the league." - A.J. Smith
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Dec 30, 2009 8:59 PM PST up reply actions
by "their" you mean "our"??
Any idea what it was in previous years?
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Dec 30, 2009 9:10 PM PST up reply actions
I try to avoid saying “our.” I don’t always succeed, but I try.
Bolts from the Blue // "I have got to be the most boring GM in the league." - A.J. Smith
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Dec 31, 2009 7:59 AM PST up reply actions
Haha. Nice.
Bolts from the Blue // "I have got to be the most boring GM in the league." - A.J. Smith
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Dec 31, 2009 1:56 PM PST up reply actions
I guess it is improved slightly
but not by a whole lot. Certainly still below average. That doesn’t cut it, especially when the focus going into this year was supposed to be improved defense and pass rush. The former has actually gotten worse, while the latter has improved marginally.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 30, 2009 9:18 PM PST up reply actions
1st round pick, talented receiver who’s been injured. Almost always inactive
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/players/16806/Buster_Davis
Next Year Floyd is gone and maybe Jackson so he’ll get his chance to party
by not humble enough on Dec 30, 2009 12:15 PM PST reply actions
That's why I put
That’s not all of them, but that’s most of them.
Jackson’s not going anywhere. Neither is Floyd, since he’s a RFA.
A year away from the game is a smart move in Buster’s case. Buster’s issue has been health, not necessarily talent. When he’s gotten on the field and had the ball thrown to him, he’s made plays. What they’re basically doing is giving him a full year off to get completely healthy, and to learn what it’s like to be healthy for a full season. I think he’ll be an impact player next year.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Dec 30, 2009 12:27 PM PST up reply actions
He can return punts.
Bolts from the Blue // "I have got to be the most boring GM in the league." - A.J. Smith
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Dec 30, 2009 9:00 PM PST up reply actions
I thought we were talking about when he’s no longer inactive.
Bolts from the Blue // "I have got to be the most boring GM in the league." - A.J. Smith
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Dec 31, 2009 7:59 AM PST up reply actions
We should wait until his pads get used
Although I think Buster will be plenty of touches versus the Skins; should make for some good entertainment.
The homer in me
is still hoping that English is a late bloomer in the NFL (but not too late for the Chargers). But I suspect the “career outlook” that John wrote is probably the most likely scenario. Here’s to hoping that he gets a sack or two in the playoffs. Thanks for the analysis John; Time to start slicking back your hair like Kiper.
Its not too early to say English has had a disappointing first year for a 1st round draft pick
But it’s way to early to try and label his career.
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Dec 31, 2009 10:46 AM PST up reply actions
But is it too early to lower our expectations?
Mine weren’t that high to begin with and they’ve been lowered.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
by Wonko on Dec 31, 2009 12:48 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Up to this point I'm very disappointed
with the decision to go for English when Maualuga was on the board. I understand why we picked up English (potential successor to Merriman, we already aquired Burnett through FA etc.) but English is looking more and more like a reach every time I see him on the field, while Maualuga has produced in Cincy.
by SoCalBoltFan on Dec 31, 2009 2:57 PM PST up reply actions
Not sure
It’s fair to compare Maualuga’s production at OLB in Cincy to what he could have done at ILB in San Diego, but I see what you mean.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Clay Matthews is a better comparison.
Bolts from the Blue // "I have got to be the most boring GM in the league." - A.J. Smith
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Dec 31, 2009 6:04 PM PST up reply actions

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