Predicting the Score by the Numbers
by Steve (Grey Suit) on Dec 3, 2009 10:00 AM PST
in Statistics
17 comments
It seems like each week the prediction is getting a little closer to the actual score. To see what I came up with this week click below.
So far this season the Browns have score on average 11.1 points per game and have allowed an average of 25.4 points per game. The Browns opponents have scored 21.9 points and allowed 19.6 points per game on average thus far this season. If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Browns have scored 8.5 fewer points per game than their opponent's average and have allowed 3.5 more points per game than their opponent's average.
|
Points For |
Points Against |
|
|
Browns |
11.1 |
25.4 |
|
31.1 |
18.5 |
|
|
17.8 |
17.2 |
|
|
23.4 |
17.1 |
|
|
21.0 |
15.8 |
|
|
16.9 |
22.0 |
|
|
22.5 |
18.5 |
|
|
26.9 |
19.5 |
|
|
19.6 |
23.7 |
|
|
Ravens |
23.4 |
17.1 |
|
17.5 |
30.5 |
|
|
Bengals |
21.0 |
15.8 |
|
Average |
21.9 |
19.6 |
|
Adjustment |
-8.5 |
3.5 |
The Chargers have scored 28.4 points per game and allowed 19.9 points per game on average so far this season, while their opponents have scored an average of 19.1 points per game and allowed 21.6 points per game on average thus far in the season. If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Chargers are scoring 6.8 more points per game than their opponent's average and are giving up 0.8 more points per game than their opponent's average.
|
Points For |
Points Against |
|
|
Chargers |
28.4 |
19.9 |
|
10.5 |
23.5 |
|
|
Ravens |
23.4 |
17.1 |
|
23.3 |
25.0 |
|
|
Steelers |
22.5 |
18.5 |
|
Broncos |
17.8 |
17.2 |
|
16.6 |
25.6 |
|
|
Raiders |
10.5 |
23.5 |
|
24.7 |
23.7 |
|
|
26.6 |
20.7 |
|
|
Broncos |
17.8 |
17.2 |
|
Chiefs |
16.6 |
25.6 |
|
Average |
19.1 |
21.6 |
|
Adjustment |
6.8 |
0.8 |
If you take the numbers from above and apply them to this week's game you get the following:
Browns
The Browns score on average 11.1 points, the Chargers allow 0.8 points more than average, the Browns should score 11.9 points.
The Browns allow on average 25.4 points, the Chargers score on average 6.8 points higher than average, the Browns should allow 32.2 points.
Chargers
The Chargers score on average 28.4 points, the Browns allow 3.5 more points than average, Chargers should score 31.9 points
The Chargers allow on average 19.9 points, the Browns score on average 8.5 fewer points than their opponents average, Chargers should allow 11.4 points.
|
Points For |
Points Against |
|
|
Chargers |
31.9 |
11.4 |
|
Browns |
11.9 |
32.2 |
If we average the points scored and against together for each team you get the following score:
Chargers 32
Browns 12
Go Bolts!
0 recs |
17 comments
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LoL 32-12 was my prediction :P
"It dont matter if you win or lose your still a loser... said the Chargers Fan"
by ChargersWitch on Dec 3, 2009 10:25 AM PST via mobile reply actions 0 recs
I'd be upset if we allowed 4 scoring drives.
Even if they’re just for FGs.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 3, 2009 10:28 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Here here!
Permitting the lead we should have (and given their extreme impotency on offense) I’d like to see us playing a much tougher style defense this week rather than this elimit-the-big plays/bend-don’t-break defense we’ve been seeing. It’d be great practice for when we have to knuckle down and play two minute defense.
by sd_Baby-B on Dec 3, 2009 10:43 AM PST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd
let’s go all mike tomlin and unleash hell
"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."
...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs
by notorioushbi on Dec 3, 2009 10:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s “hear hear.” Think “hear him, hear him.”
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Dec 3, 2009 3:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There There!
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 3, 2009 4:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the correction
I considered that as I was about to hit post, but couldn’t decide which I thought was more likely correct. Usually I’ll look it up so I don’t risk looking foolish, but posting from my itouch made that difficult. Oh well, I guess I couldn’t hide my foolishness forever :P
by sd_Baby-B on Dec 4, 2009 12:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
42 - 24
32-12 is a good prediction but
the defense will be flat and the browns come out throwing cause they’re just like ‘f* it! we’re going to throw it’
Makes for lots of points and embarrassing moments for the chargers. But also returned INTs
by not humble enough on Dec 3, 2009 11:30 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
No Way
A team avg 11pts scores twice that many on us.
My guess is we get up quick and go easy towards the end. 33-10
by AirNorval on Dec 3, 2009 11:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i don't have a good track record with this
but I’m winning my Fantasy football league so sometimes I know what I’m doing with football… gotto go with what you feel.
I will rest with…
Our run defense isn’t that great. They have a bunch of guys trying to make contracts for next year. And a good LT. They are going to run it out of throwing formations and it’s going to hurt. Still. We win 42 – 24
by not humble enough on Dec 4, 2009 12:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
30-3
Browns ST will get 3 midfield starts for Cleveland. Figure an average of one first down per drive, and they’ll be 1-of-2 on FG attempts. SD will put up 20 points by halftime, then bench Rivers; Volek will engineer 3 decent drives netting a TD and a FG.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Dec 3, 2009 1:12 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
28-0
The Browns would not score against the Chargers.
I like the 30-3 score a lot though.
by frenchcharger on Dec 4, 2009 2:04 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
31-6
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Dec 4, 2009 2:48 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
sd wins
24-7
okay i have cereal palsy arhrtis and chronic fatiue as well i have a grea life loveing folks some days are better that other days i got a make a wish in 2001 saw my favorive team the broncos was the trip of the lifetime i wish everyone couild gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that ok but i bleed organ and bule
by j-man on Dec 4, 2009 1:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
AT LEAST THE WEATHER CALLS
for no snow so it shouldnt be an all field goal day like last time we played there (18-6 i think it was?) 30-9 is my pick
by $#%@ eli and his daddy on Dec 5, 2009 8:10 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
38-10 chargers
"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."
...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs
by notorioushbi on Dec 5, 2009 10:50 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
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