Predicting the Score by the Numbers
by Steve (Grey Suit) on Dec 24, 2009 10:00 AM PST
in Statistics
35 comments
The Titans have really been the team of two halves this year. After their six consecutive losses to start the season the Titans have tightened up their game and gone 7-1 since (only losing to the Colts). Will the Chargers be able to end the Titans playoff hopes and lock themselves into the #2 spot in the AFC? Click below to find out.
So far this season the Titans have score on average 22.9 points per game and have allowed an average of 24.8 points per game. The Titans opponents have scored 21.8 points and allowed 20.7 points per game on average thus far this season. If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Titans have scored 2.2 points per game higher than their opponent's average and have allowed 3.0 more points per game than their opponent's average.
|
Points For |
Points Against |
|
|
Titans |
22.9 |
24.8 |
|
22.5 |
20.0 |
|
|
23.4 |
20.4 |
|
|
20.1 |
15.8 |
|
|
19.0 |
23.0 |
|
|
Colts |
28.1 |
17.7 |
|
26.1 |
17.4 |
|
|
Jaguars |
19.0 |
23.0 |
|
20.1 |
19.2 |
|
|
16.1 |
20.6 |
|
|
Texans |
23.4 |
20.4 |
|
24.1 |
20.1 |
|
|
Colts |
28.1 |
17.7 |
|
11.4 |
26.9 |
|
|
22.6 |
23.8 |
|
|
Average |
21.8 |
20.7 |
|
Adjustment |
2.2 |
3.0 |
The Chargers have scored 27.8 points per game and allowed 20.2 points per game on average so far this season, while their opponents have scored an average of 20.7 points per game and allowed 20.2 points per game on average thus far in the season. If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Chargers are scoring 6.2 more points per game than their opponent's average and are giving up .05 fewer points per game than their opponent's average.
|
Points For |
Points Against |
|
|
Chargers |
27.8 |
20.2 |
|
12.5 |
23.9 |
|
|
25.0 |
16.1 |
|
|
Dolphins |
22.6 |
23.8 |
|
Steelers |
22.5 |
20.0 |
|
19.6 |
17.9 |
|
|
17.1 |
27.4 |
|
|
Raiders |
12.5 |
23.9 |
|
27.6 |
24.4 |
|
|
28.5 |
20.4 |
|
|
Broncos |
19.6 |
17.9 |
|
Chiefs |
17.1 |
27.4 |
|
14.2 |
24.9 |
|
|
22.9 |
17.9 |
|
|
20.6 |
17.4 |
|
|
Average |
20.7 |
21.6 |
|
Adjustment |
6.2 |
-0.5 |
If you take the numbers from above and apply them to this week's game you get the following:
Titans
The Titans score on average 22.9 points, the Chargers allow 0.5 fewer points than average, the Titans should score 22.4 points.
The Titans allow on average 24.8 points, the Chargers score on average 6.2 points higher than average, the Titans should allow 31.0 points.
Chargers
The Chargers score on average 27.8 points, the Titans allow 3 points more than average, Chargers should score 30.8 points.
The Chargers allow on average 20.2 points, the Titans score on average 2.2 points more than their opponents average, Chargers should allow 22.4 points.
|
Points For |
Points Against |
|
|
Chargers |
30.8 |
22.4 |
|
Titans |
22.4 |
31.0 |
If we average the points scored and against together for each team you get the following score:
Chargers 31
Titans 22
Go Bolts!
1 recs |
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Comments
Wow
I expected a smaller margin, but given all the stats, the Titans Defense isn’t exactly that scary.
You were right about the 3 point differential last time
But should we include the first six games when breaking down the titans? Seems like a different team now.
"I sawed a woman in the park today"
Not bad grammar. Just recollections of a deranged killer.
Their defense still sucks
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 24, 2009 10:21 AM PST up reply actions
not to mention that Bulluck is out
and Vanden Bosch is hurt.
by Steve (Grey Suit) on Dec 24, 2009 10:29 AM PST up reply actions
In the last 8 games since their bye
The Titans are scoring an average of 29.5 pts and allowing an average of 18.6 pts.
So those first 6 games definitely weigh them down.
But then again, the cumulative record of the 7 teams they’ve beat this year: 42-56. Only barely beating one team with a winning record (Cardinals).
That is really inflated
by our 59-0 loss to the Patriots.
"We really feel like we can go 10-0 in these last ten games...we’re trying to do something nobody has ever done." Chris Johnson
"This is the only building in the NHL that the fans get up and cheer for no apparent reason just to support us." - Dan Ellis
Official Graphic Designer/Researcher/Grammar Police of MCM.
Official Graphic Goon of OTF.
by Aditya T (smashville) on Dec 24, 2009 10:29 AM PST reply actions
Well what'd you do that for?
Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play
Oh gosh
and guess what? We’re better than them.
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Dec 24, 2009 11:23 AM PST up reply actions
Buck's right
This will be the last blowout of the season for the chargers For some reason people think that A. The Titans are good B. The Titans are healthy C. The Titans didn’t have a short week too. D. The Titans are have any chance whatsoever to make the playoffs. FALSE!
by nicklusk on Dec 24, 2009 11:28 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
A. 7-1 in our last 8 games isn’t good?
B. We are very healthy except for our linebackers
C. But we don’t have to travel 2000 miles on Christmas Day
D. Uh…yes we do?
"We really feel like we can go 10-0 in these last ten games...we’re trying to do something nobody has ever done." Chris Johnson
"This is the only building in the NHL that the fans get up and cheer for no apparent reason just to support us." - Dan Ellis
Official Graphic Designer/Researcher/Grammar Police of MCM.
Official Graphic Goon of OTF.
by Aditya T (smashville) on Dec 24, 2009 11:34 AM PST up reply actions
Chargers are already in Tennesee
Have been since yesterday.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 24, 2009 11:46 AM PST up reply actions
You'll make the playoffs
If like a 3rd of the afc loses two weeks in a row
by nicklusk on Dec 24, 2009 11:46 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
We just need one upset
Either the Raiders need to beat the Ravens
or
the Chiefs need to beat the Broncos
"We really feel like we can go 10-0 in these last ten games...we’re trying to do something nobody has ever done." Chris Johnson
"This is the only building in the NHL that the fans get up and cheer for no apparent reason just to support us." - Dan Ellis
Official Graphic Designer/Researcher/Grammar Police of MCM.
Official Graphic Goon of OTF.
by Aditya T (smashville) on Dec 24, 2009 11:48 AM PST up reply actions
AND you need to win.
Or had you forgotten that bit?
"Wipe that golden tear from your mother dear, and raise what's left of the flag for me."-- Flogging Molly, "What's Left Of The Flag"
Ali Villanueva (OT/WR, Army) has 460 yards and 5 TDs in only 7 games with a mediocre quarterback. Just sayin'...
by StrangeBroP25 on Dec 24, 2009 11:49 AM PST up reply actions
Of course we need to win. Nothing else happens if we don't win.
I’m just amazed that we even have a shot at the playoffs after expecting the first draft pick in Week 7.
"We really feel like we can go 10-0 in these last ten games...we’re trying to do something nobody has ever done." Chris Johnson
"This is the only building in the NHL that the fans get up and cheer for no apparent reason just to support us." - Dan Ellis
Official Graphic Designer/Researcher/Grammar Police of MCM.
Official Graphic Goon of OTF.
by Aditya T (smashville) on Dec 24, 2009 11:50 AM PST up reply actions
Ha, yeah...
Got to give y’all some credit, it’s been a very good run for the Titans.
"Wipe that golden tear from your mother dear, and raise what's left of the flag for me."-- Flogging Molly, "What's Left Of The Flag"
Ali Villanueva (OT/WR, Army) has 460 yards and 5 TDs in only 7 games with a mediocre quarterback. Just sayin'...
by StrangeBroP25 on Dec 24, 2009 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
OK, let me set the record straight
We are better than the Pats & by saying that I implied that I expected a blowout. I expect us to win by 7-10 points. TN is certainly a better team than the one that the Pats beat. What will spell the difference is our passing game & your diminished LBers.
No blowout, but a strong win for the Bolts.
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Dec 24, 2009 1:27 PM PST up reply actions
And guess what?
This 7-1 team is probably better than those Patriots that beat us.
"We really feel like we can go 10-0 in these last ten games...we’re trying to do something nobody has ever done." Chris Johnson
"This is the only building in the NHL that the fans get up and cheer for no apparent reason just to support us." - Dan Ellis
Official Graphic Designer/Researcher/Grammar Police of MCM.
Official Graphic Goon of OTF.
by Aditya T (smashville) on Dec 24, 2009 11:33 AM PST up reply actions
Okay, fair enough
but you’re 7-7, not 7-1.
We are 11-3 and 8-0 over the same span. nicklusk is somewhat off base, but I do predict a handling of the Titans, even if CJ gets loose. (After all, McNabb threw for 450 yards and we beat the Eagles just fine!)
"Wipe that golden tear from your mother dear, and raise what's left of the flag for me."-- Flogging Molly, "What's Left Of The Flag"
Ali Villanueva (OT/WR, Army) has 460 yards and 5 TDs in only 7 games with a mediocre quarterback. Just sayin'...
by StrangeBroP25 on Dec 24, 2009 11:40 AM PST up reply actions
Ok. This 9-0 team is better than any other team in the NFL.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 24, 2009 11:48 AM PST up reply actions
Agreed. I would agree that you are the best team in the NFL right now
But the Titans are not far behind.
"We really feel like we can go 10-0 in these last ten games...we’re trying to do something nobody has ever done." Chris Johnson
"This is the only building in the NHL that the fans get up and cheer for no apparent reason just to support us." - Dan Ellis
Official Graphic Designer/Researcher/Grammar Police of MCM.
Official Graphic Goon of OTF.
by Aditya T (smashville) on Dec 24, 2009 11:49 AM PST up reply actions
I could care less if the Chargers lose this week
I just want them to get out of their healthy.
This is a terrible thing for the Padres. - Jerry Coleman
If I must choose
I choose healthy as well.
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Dec 24, 2009 1:28 PM PST up reply actions
Titans favored by 3..
just keep flying under the radar .. great call by oddsmakers
This has me worried.
I can’t help but think that it’s the CJ Factor.
Banned from Arrowhead Pride... and Music City Miracles certainly don't like me very much, either.
"Ah act the way ah feel." --Elvis Presley
by StrangeBroP25 on Dec 24, 2009 6:00 PM PST up reply actions
It's home field
Most teams get an automatic 3 points when playing at home. This game is essentially even.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Dec 24, 2009 6:54 PM PST up reply actions
It will be a test, that's for sure.
Also, while on our own home field, sorry about the Chargers Questions thread at MCM. I kind of dragged that into the mud… I’ll have to stay out of other teams’ houses for a while.
Banned from Arrowhead Pride... and Music City Miracles certainly don't like me very much, either.
"Ah act the way ah feel." --Elvis Presley
by StrangeBroP25 on Dec 24, 2009 7:25 PM PST up reply actions
John
What do you think the score will be? It would be cool if all the main writers for bftb had a predition each week about who will win and the final score. And it was tallied each week till the end of the year when a winner was declared
by nicklusk on Dec 24, 2009 8:28 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Cool Idea
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 24, 2009 11:19 PM PST up reply actions
The Casino that I work at
Has dropped the spread to Titans -2 today, and the money line has went from Chargers +140 on Tuesday to Chargers +110 today. So for whatever it is worth most of the public is betting on San Diego today.
In fact the lady that I was talking to at the Sportsbook said that almost every bet she has taken on the game today has been the Chargers on the money line.
Love this weekly offering, Steve
Would it get way too complicated to try to factor in how the home team in question plays at home and how the road team in question plays on the road?… Because the Titans are at home, I’m predicting that the score will be closer than if the game were in San Diego (naturally enough). The oddsmakers could be dead-on, but I’m going with Chargers 34, Tennessee 30. Definitely a slugfest, and also a shoot-out, of sorts….
It could go one of two ways — as far as my prediction goes (and of course it could go a myriad of other ways, too): either Tennessee gets a late score to make it look close (a la the Cowboys and Browns games); OR the Chargers could be driving for what could be a game-tying field goal, and, lo and behold, the Bolts under Norv are learning and cease to be conservative, and get the TD instead…(!)….
Wishful thinking?!… Maybe…. We shall see…. GO CHARGERS! ~ And Merry Christmas, Everyone — including all you Titans fans, too. Our teams have both had great runs these past 8-9 weeks, and this could/should be a very good game (barring dirty play from either side or emotions carrying someone away and ruining it for his respective team).
The short answer to your question is yes.
I’m trying to keep this as simple as possible so it is easy to follow along with my logic.
Also doing home/road splits would cut your sample size in half so your data would be less reliable, especially when the season is only 16 games long.
I thought about adding the standard 3 point advantage to the home teams score but I really don’t have a statistical basis for this so in the end I decided not to do it.
by Steve (Grey Suit) on Dec 24, 2009 9:02 PM PST up reply actions
In the end I really think the game will be won or lost by Vince Young.
I really don’t see the Titans being able to stop the Charger offence at all this week. With the injuries at LB and lack of corners this year I see Gates, Jackson, Floyd and Rivers all having big days.
I’m sure CJ will get his yards but at what cost? The titans can grind out a long drive but what good will it do them if the Chargers can comeback and score quickly. The Chargers have pulled ahead of a lot of games in the third quarter this season only to let their opponents back into the game in the fourth. Can VJ put together a couple key fourth quarter drives to win the game?
by Steve (Grey Suit) on Dec 24, 2009 9:12 PM PST reply actions
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