Predicting the Score by the Numbers

The Titans have really been the team of two halves this year.  After their six consecutive losses to start the season the Titans have tightened up their game and gone 7-1 since (only losing to the Colts).  Will the Chargers be able to end the Titans playoff hopes and lock themselves into the #2 spot in the AFC?  Click below to find out.

So far this season the Titans have score on average 22.9 points per game and have allowed an average of 24.8 points per game.   The Titans opponents have scored 21.8 points and allowed 20.7 points per game on average thus far this season.   If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Titans have scored 2.2 points per game higher than their opponent's average and have allowed 3.0 more points per game than their opponent's average.

Points For

Points Against

Titans

22.9

24.8

Steelers

22.5

20.0

Texans

23.4

20.4

Jets

20.1

15.8

Jaguars

19.0

23.0

Colts

28.1

17.7

Patriots

26.1

17.4

Jaguars

19.0

23.0

49ers

20.1

19.2

Bills

16.1

20.6

Texans

23.4

20.4

Cardinals

24.1

20.1

Colts

28.1

17.7

Rams

11.4

26.9

Dolphins

22.6

23.8

Average

21.8

20.7

Adjustment

2.2

3.0

 

The Chargers have scored 27.8 points per game and allowed 20.2 points per game on average so far this season, while their opponents have scored an average of 20.7 points per game and allowed 20.2 points per game on average thus far in the season.  If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Chargers are scoring 6.2 more points per game than their opponent's average and are giving up .05 fewer points per game than their opponent's average.

Points For

Points Against

Chargers

27.8

20.2

Raiders

12.5

23.9

Ravens

25.0

16.1

Dolphins

22.6

23.8

Steelers

22.5

20.0

Broncos

19.6

17.9

Chiefs

17.1

27.4

Raiders

12.5

23.9

Giants

27.6

24.4

Eagles

28.5

20.4

Broncos

19.6

17.9

Chiefs

17.1

27.4

Browns

14.2

24.9

Cowboys

22.9

17.9

Bengals

20.6

17.4

Average

20.7

21.6

Adjustment

6.2

-0.5

 

If you take the numbers from above and apply them to this week's game you get the following:

 

Titans

The Titans score on average 22.9 points, the Chargers allow 0.5 fewer points than average, the Titans should score 22.4 points.

The Titans allow on average 24.8 points, the Chargers score on average 6.2 points higher than average, the Titans should allow 31.0 points.

 

Chargers

The Chargers score on average 27.8 points, the Titans allow 3 points more than average, Chargers should score 30.8 points.

The Chargers allow on average 20.2 points, the Titans score on average 2.2 points more than their opponents average, Chargers should allow 22.4 points.

Points For

Points Against

Chargers

30.8

22.4

Titans

22.4

31.0

 

If we average the points scored and against together for each team you get the following score:

Chargers 31

Titans 22

Go Bolts!

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