Week 15 Chargers Playoff Scenarios
by John Gennaro on Dec 14, 2009 6:14 PM PST
in San Diego Chargers News
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The San Diego Chargers are closing in on clinching a playoff berth. The Chargers, who are 10-3 and have won eight straight games, can clinch their fourth straight AFC West title when they host Cincinnati on Sunday.
Here are the scenarios:
San Diego clinches AFC West division title with:
1) DEN loss
or
2) SD win or tie + DEN tie
San Diego clinches a first-round bye with:
SD win + DEN loss or tie + NE loss or tie
San Diego clinches a playoff spot with:
1) SD win or tie
or
2) NE loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + MIA loss or tie
or
3) NE loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
or
4) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
or
5) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + JAC loss or tie
or
6) MIA loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + JAC loss or tie
or
7) NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + JAC loss or tie
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This is like one of those grade school work problems, right?
Once you simplify, all you get is “just win baby”.
"Live to love and love to live"!
Yes, a playoff spot. That's what it says.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 14, 2009 6:47 PM PST up reply actions
He's right.
Even if Denver wins out and goes 11-5, SD needs to win just one to clinch the West, since they own the tie breaker.
"I'm a Michigan Wolverine, which means I'm the only one who watches 'Rudy' hoping he pulls a hamstring or pops a quad." - Rich Eisen
The Chargers don't own any tiebreaker.
If they finish with the same record and the Chargers have lost to the Bengals, then the Broncos would win the division.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 14, 2009 7:33 PM PST up reply actions
If they finish with the same record
and the Chargers have beaten the Bengals, it would come down to Strength of Victory, which is impossible to tell at this point in the season.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 14, 2009 7:34 PM PST up reply actions
Tiebreakers
If Denver loses to Oak or KC, it’s done. If Denver loses only to Philly, then they are guaranteed the tiebreaker on conference record and we need to win a game, any game. If Denver wins out and we lose to Cincy and Tennessee, it’s theirs even if we beat Washington, on conference record. If Denver wins out and we lose to Cincy and Washington, we lose on common games. If Denver wins out and we beat only Cincy, it goes to SOV, which is essentially a coin-toss (thank you for winning, Indy). In the bizarre event that SOV is a tie, it goes to Denver on SOS (Indy vs. Tenn).
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Dec 15, 2009 12:57 AM PST up reply actions
I know.
I was responding to his comment that the Chargers own the tiebreaker if the Broncos finish 11-5. They do not.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 15, 2009 7:02 AM PST up reply actions
A win next week for SD secures a wildcard spot
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 14, 2009 9:45 PM PST up reply actions
True, but ...
If the Broncos win out and the Chargers finish 1-2, Denver could win the division based on strength of schedule or victory. Don’t worry, though: I don’t see that happening…. I also don’t see the Broncos losing at home to a Raider team Qb’d by Jemarcus Russell, so regardless of what happens with the Bengal-Charger game, the Broncos probably keep their faint hopes of winning the division alive into Week 16….
If the Chargers win Sunday and win one more game, regardless of what ANYone else does, they’ll not only win the division but clinch the other 1st round bye.
Cable says he'll decide who'll start in a couple days
Gradkowski has a torn medial collateral ligament in his left knee and a partially torn MCL in his right knee; he didn’t play in the 2nd half against the Redskins. Russell did but was completely ineffective (again). If Gradkowski can’t go (and right now he’s doubtful), Cable says he’ll consider starting Charlie Frye over Russell, so you could be right.
actually,
If the Chargers beat the Bengals…. they win the division because they would have the most CONFERENCE wins. So it’s pretty much automatic.
I don't know where you got that from
If we were to go 1-2 in our last 3 games with a win against the Bengals and losses to the Titans and the Redskins while the Broncos would win out against the Chiefs, Raiders, and the Eagles. We would be 1-1 in conference while, the broncos would be 2-0. Our conference records are 7-3 and 6-4 respectively, which adding in my scenario we would both be 8-4 in conference records. Point is we don’t win the division with just a win.
The one and only AzDuck
People, puh-lease
Stop arguing about this. The post is an exact copy of what the NFL released as the playoff clinching scenarios. If they say:
San Diego clinches AFC West division title with:
1) DEN loss
or
2) SD win or tie + DEN tie
Then that’s that. No amount of internet arguing is going to change that. So, do you see a scenario up there where Denver wins and the Chargers clinch this week? Nope. Then it can’t happen.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
by Wonko on Dec 15, 2009 2:18 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
It's okay
I just didn’t think your argument was definitive since you assumed your audience knew the tiebreaker priorities involved. For instance, the tie breakers go:
TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.
Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss
So if you were explaining a scenario where the Broncos and Chargers both won in week 15, the Broncos win out and the two teams finish tied. You would really have to show which tiebreaker would come into play. Here, I’ll do it:
1. Tied at 1-1
2. Tied at 5-1
3. Tied at 9-3 (both teams lost to Redskins, Steelers and Ravens, were 4-0 in common divisional games and defeated the Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Browns and Bengals)
4. Tied at 8-4 (both teams are 2-2 vs AFC North, 5-1 vs AFC West and 1-1 in other conference games)
5. Broncos should win this (since all opponent victories are common except for Patriots and Dolphins, so the Broncos win the tiebreaker assuming that the Patriots finish with a better record than the Dolphins).
I’ve posted this before, but I guess each week deserves a rehash.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
Only if the Chargers lose at least two of their remaining games
And they aren’t to both the Bengals and Redskins.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
To add on to the next tiebreaker
If the Dolphins and Patriots finish with the same record, following your scenario we would lose in strength of schedule.
The one and only AzDuck
I really hope the Chargers win their next two games
so this all becomes moot.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 15, 2009 3:20 PM PST up reply actions
Sounds good.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 15, 2009 4:03 PM PST up reply actions
Bastards.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 15, 2009 4:03 PM PST up reply actions
short answer is
the division is more or less in the bag (barring a denver-esque collapse by us)
A win on Sunday means the 1st round bye is more or less in the bag.
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Dec 14, 2009 8:56 PM PST reply actions
After seeing what happened to Denver last year and how they blew a three game lead with three games to go, I wouldn’t call anything wrapped up until we actually clinch it.
by SteelAngel2000 on Dec 14, 2009 9:04 PM PST up reply actions
As long a Rivers is chucking it and Gates and Jackson are catching it
I’m going to go ahead and count my chickens. At this point last year, Denver was 8-5 and not even that good. We’re 10-3, it’s a whole different ballgame.
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Dec 14, 2009 9:18 PM PST up reply actions
Good point. I really hope the cards fall our way and we manage to lock up that first round bye this week… Though we’ve been winning, we’ve got some beaten-up players, especially on the defensive side. If we clinch this week, we can start resting players who positively need it
by SteelAngel2000 on Dec 14, 2009 9:46 PM PST up reply actions
Yup
We don’t have to worry about the meaningless “undefeated” nonsense. Colts will set themselves up for yet another early playoff exit.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 14, 2009 9:47 PM PST up reply actions
I don't really hate the Raiders anymore
It’s like rooting against the special Olympics.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 14, 2009 9:47 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I’m pretty sure your analogy doesn’t work.
Bolts from the Blue // "I have got to be the most boring GM in the league." - A.J. Smith
Bloody Elbow // "I win again. Engrish is my bitch." - Steven Zucconi
by Richard Wade on Dec 14, 2009 10:19 PM PST up reply actions
I know
But its close enough. I mean I could have said its like rooting against your handicap child’s rival in the Special Olympics, that would have made more sense, but its just simpler the other way.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 14, 2009 11:41 PM PST up reply actions
I still do and forever.
This is what we were hoping all along. To see this team do miserable.
The only AFC West I don’t hate is KC (ant the Seahawks before) Oak and Den I do hate.
by frenchcharger on Dec 15, 2009 2:45 AM PST up reply actions
Never thought I would admit to actually root for the (T)Raiders, but...
GO RAIDERS!!!
p.s. please don’t tell my girlfriend I said that
by carneypower2005 on Dec 15, 2009 12:47 PM PST up reply actions
IF
The chargers are on a train heading west at 60mph, and the Patriots leave going south at 50mph, and the Ravens are going North at 67mph, who will get to the playoffs first? Obviousman your posts are always insightful at the very least…lol
Pats, unfortunately
because the Super Bowl is held in Miami. Ravens will hit Canada, and the Chargers will be going out to sea within the hour.
"Wipe that golden tear from your mother dear, and raise what's left of the flag for me."-- Flogging Molly, "What's Left Of The Flag"
Ali Villanueva (OT/WR, Army) has 460 yards and 5 TDs in only 7 games with a mediocre quarterback. Just sayin'...
by StrangeBroP25 on Dec 15, 2009 4:33 PM PST up reply actions
Why all the Mia loss/tie stuff?
Miami has 6 losses, so they can’t beat us in wins, and we own the tiebreaker on them. They’re in the rearview. I guess they could get knocked out of their division and thus take New England out of WC contention, but that won’t happen this week.
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders!
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Dec 15, 2009 1:05 AM PST reply actions
depends on how many teams are tied
if we tie Miami head-to-head, we win that tiebreaker. but if we tie Miami and either Jacksonville or Baltimore (non-AFC East teams), we would have to beat both of them for head-to-head matchups to matter. we lost to Baltimore, and didn’t play Jacksonville. the next tiebreaker is conference record, and all of our losses to date are in the conference. Amazingly, even though we beat Miami and Miami beat Jacksonville, a 3-way tie between us would send Jacksonville to the playoffs based on conference record
Another possibility is a situation where we end up in a 3-way with Miami and either New England or New York. Theoretically, Miami’s absence means the other team wins the East and we take the wild-card. but if Miami takes the East based on division tiebreakers, we may then lose the wild-card tiebreaker head-to-head against the other team.
It gets even more complicated if you consider 4- or 5- way ties
All remote possibilities, as they require us losing out and at least two of those five teams winning out. but still mathematically possible, so it requires mention.
Completely off topic, but nowhere else to put it.
Did anyone else think Arizona had the Bill Simmons Madden “No f-ing way” game last night? Just everything they did turned to absolute crap. Run up the middle? Turnover. Stretch play to the outside? Turnover. Dump-off to the running back? Turnover. I mean, they’ll still win the west, but amazing that they could so thoroughly dominate the Vikings one week, and then the next lay an absolute egg to the Niners.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 15, 2009 7:18 AM PST reply actions
Bill Simmons Madden "No f-ing way" game
Is this a thing?
Bolts from the Blue // "I have got to be the most boring GM in the league." - A.J. Smith
Bloody Elbow // "I win again. Engrish is my bitch." - Steven Zucconi
by Richard Wade on Dec 15, 2009 8:14 AM PST up reply actions
Yes.
It’s when you’re trying to go 16-0 on the hardest difficulty setting, and the program just decides there’s “No f-ing way” you’re winning this game. Everything you do goes wrong—turnovers every other down, the opposing team hits impossible bombs and plays, etc.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 15, 2009 8:58 AM PST up reply actions
No effing way
Yup, but these games don’t just happen when you’re trying to go undefeated. I think there’s always at least one no effing way per season regardless of record.
by 'Eaters on Dec 15, 2009 10:21 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
that sounds like Blitz...
on the N-64…the computer was a world beater every 4th quarter…luckily there was no pass interference on that game
"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."
...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs
by notorioushbi on Dec 17, 2009 9:39 AM PST up reply actions
Seems a lot like last year for the cards
They dominate one week and then just don’t show up the next
by Stephen (shaynes41) on Dec 15, 2009 8:28 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
I thought the 49ers had a good chance in that game
They are a team that has a lot of lapses within a game, mostly due to inexperience. But, if you give them a little push (like a few turnovers, and let’s be realistic, they didn’t need all 7 to win that game) they have enough talent to pull off a win against almost anyone. 49ers played hard in a divisional game and the gap between them and Cardinals is not as big as some might think. I’m still baffled how the Cardinals team is the same one that stonewalled Adrian Peterson, but it’s not like they shut down ever opposing RB this season either.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
Until this week
the Cards were 7th in run defense, and the Niners were 25th in rushing offense. So you’d have expected Arizona to do a lot better against Gore than they did.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 15, 2009 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
In some ways I would
But the 49ers have been trying to figure out slowly how to run with the new shotgun stuff (because that’s Smith’s strength) and getting behind hasn’t helped. They also had injuries to their top 2 RBs early in the year that put them behind statistically. In this game they were never behind and may have found a better balance for Gore and Smith with shotgun/non-shotgun plays. The 49ers are a dark horse team that can play with anybody in the NFC, however they have set themselves back with too many close losses.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
I can go with that.
They seem fairly well coached. I’m a fan of their DC.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 15, 2009 10:28 AM PST up reply actions
When I was looking at
the playoff clinching scenarios where SD loses this week, it boils down to this:
If NE or Jax lose, then 2 out of Bal, Mia and NYJ have to lose.
If NE and Jax win, then Bal, Mia, and NYJ have to lose.
Not that it really matters since we have 3 weeks to go and we aren’t going to lose to the Bengals.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
Nope.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 15, 2009 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
We're gonna get a late night Christmas gift....
"It dont matter if you win or lose your still a loser... said the Chargers Fan"
by ChargersWitch on Dec 15, 2009 10:12 AM PST via mobile reply actions
for cryin' out loud
JUST WIN!
The peanut gallery has spoken!!!
What would happen if?
Chargers are 2nd seed and Colts 1st.
Chargers win playoff game and Colts lose.
Would the AFC championship be in San Diego or at the city that beat the colts?
San Diego
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 15, 2009 7:11 PM PST up reply actions
be careful
u shouild win the divison but if u do not beat ciny u couild be in troble
okay i have cereal palsy arhrtis and chronic fatiue as well i have a grea life loveing folks some days are better that other days i got a make a wish in 2001 saw my favorive team the broncos was the trip of the lifetime i wish everyone couild gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that ok but i bleed organ and bule
Boy, aren't you the big shot.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 15, 2009 10:27 PM PST up reply actions
He's just reinforcing stereotypes and assumptions
That we all already had about Arrowhead Pride and Chiefs fans.
Let him be, he doesn’t have much else to live for other than to troll other boards
Be glad he's not on your side!
This dude is a troll on his own teams site:
This is all well and good,but…. …they’re playing the Haley Vortex of Suck.The Chefs will disgrace themselves and Arrowhead,once the hardest place to win in the NFL.Cassell,the awesome QB he is,will throw for 89 yards and 2 picks,while Bradie Croyle sits on the bench,glad he’s not getting beat half to death because the line couldn’t prevent a high school cheerleader from getting into the backfield.And the defense will do the usual,after a middling,and losing,performance all the Kool Aid drinkers babble on about being awesome,which is about as good as they can do,they’ll lay down for the Broncos.
Broncos 41,Chefs 3.
And then we’ll get to read how awesome next season’s gonna be,when Haley gets his full Tard on and SAVE KANSAS CITY FOOTBALL.This team sucks,this coach is an idiot,and this owner is more than happy to sit and watch it completely fall apart as long as he’s making some kind of profit.
The rot that has pervaded this team for the past decade has finally killed it,and Clark Hunt doesn’t care if it’s ever healthy again.Next season is the last year of the salary cap,and do you people really think he’s gonna spend the money that’s gonna be required to be competitive?Please.This team will remain the Chefs for as long as it’s his.
"The way this works is you string together some good games, some good practices and you get momentum and you gain confidence," linebacker Mike Vrabel said. "It can be a real positive for your team. It builds on itself."
I think you're confusing us with the Colts
We’re the team with 3 playoff wins over the last two seasons. The Colts and Bengals are the ones with zero.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 15, 2009 11:21 PM PST up reply actions
Damn I thought he was a Bengals fan
Didn’t mean the feed the trolls, although I figured Chief fans could at least count to three.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 15, 2009 11:23 PM PST up reply actions
-1 Troll
Bolts from the Blue // "I have got to be the most boring GM in the league." - A.J. Smith
Bloody Elbow // "I win again. Engrish is my bitch." - Steven Zucconi
by Richard Wade on Dec 16, 2009 3:53 PM PST up reply actions
i am a broncos fan guys
i can see why u wouild think i was for other teams but i am a broncos fan
okay i have cereal palsy arhrtis and chronic fatiue as well i have a grea life loveing folks some days are better that other days i got a make a wish in 2001 saw my favorive team the broncos was the trip of the lifetime i wish everyone couild gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that ok but i bleed organ and bule
J-Man, do you think your guys can beat the Patriots again -- in New England?
I know a lot may change in the next 3 weeks, but I think NE will have the 4 seed, and Denver the 5th…. And, again, I know we haven’t even clinched a playoff birth yet, let alone the division, but I think even if we lose to the Bengals, we’ll still end up with either the #2 or #3 seed. Of course it’s better to have the bye, but I like our chances in a 1st round home game against any of the comers…. And then if we happen to lose to Cincy and have to go play them on the road in the playoffs (if they secure the #2 seed and the 1st round bye), I don’t like their chances of beating us twice, back-to-back….
New England’s 1-5 on the road this year with 2 games against somewhat decent opponents left on the road (the Bills and the Texans); plus next week they’ll get an angry and desperate Jacksonville team at home. I just don’t think the Patriots are going to win out. I think both NE and Denver will lose one more and both finish 10-6.
Sure didn't think the Broncos would lose to Oakland, though
JEESH: thanks for the help in our winning the division a week early, Denver (and the Raiders, too, for that matter…). Still, at 11-3 we didn’t need much help. ;)
The crushing win at Denver was huge — and came right in the middle of this winning streak.
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