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Power Rankings from Around the Web: Week 14

I've been following this here blog since about the time training camp started.  It's been my one go-to source for the latest Chargers news and insights and I have learned a lot about the Chargers, and football in general, by reading the stories and comments on here.

Why do I bring up this little back story?  Well, one of my favorite features done on here this season was the "Power Rankings from Around the Web" series that Steve (Grey Suit) was doing off–and–on.  It was an easy way to take the pulse of the rest of the league and see just what the consensus was across the board and see just where each team stood.

Over time, I've learned I'm a bit of a stat junkie and I enjoy looking at and analyze numbers from all different sources.  Being shown the wonder that is Football Outsider's website by this community here and all the various statistics and numbers available is like porn to a numbers-lover like myself.

Okay, it's gotten weird now.  Before I get too far off course, let's get to the meat of this post.

I noticed that the Power Rankings from Around the Web posts were were a bit spotty at times, and now I realized why: it's a bit of work to cull all those lists and write them down.  But I've taken a shot at it myself and added some further numbers breakdown and analysis and I think some of the results are a little interesting.

Check out the list and further analysis after the break.

Star-divide

Those familiar with Steve's posts know he listed the teams by name in the various columns.  I've decided to do things a little differently this time and I think it's a bit easier to follow.  The biggest change you'll notice is that the chart lists the source across each column, and each row is the team.  Then in each row, I list the position the team ranks on each source.

Average Ranking

This first chart is the ranking of each team based on their average ranking from the various sources.

Week 14 Power Rankings Average
(Click image for larger view)

This week, it looks like the Chargers are a solid 3-5 ranking, with a couple exceptions (more on those later). I guess a 7-game winning streak will certainly help the football analysts to like you. Other than that though, this chart should be pretty straight forward.

Now, I haven't been following the Power Rankings very closely the last few weeks so I can't compare it to last week or the week before yet, but as I do this more, I will be able to add in historical analysis as well

Standard Deviation

This second chart is one of the new additions: standard deviation. For those unfamiliar with the concept of standard deviation, it just basically is an indicator of how consistent the numbers are. The smaller the deviation, the closer to the average (mean) the data points are; inversely, the higher the deviation, the higher the variation of numbers. It's a way to measure how wildly the numbers fluctuate

Week 14 Power Rankings Standard Deviation
(Click image for larger view)

So this chart is the same chart, but now the teams are ordered by the standard deviation of their rankings. The teams at the top of the list have the most consistent rankings, meaning that everyone across the board is basically in agreement.

What does this tell us? Well, for starters, it tells us the Saints are the most consistent in their rankings, and that the consensus is they are the number one–ranked team. Surprisingly, the second most agreed–upon ranking? The Chiefs are a number twenty–eight ranking. The Giants, with the exception of one site, are a number-12 ranking, and the Browns are still generally agreed–upon to be the worst team in football.

The three teams that are most difficult to rank? The Bengals, Chargers and Jaguars (in that order), and all for the same reasons. This is because, if you look at the chart, the Football Outsider's rankings are drastically different from the other rankings. This is because FO's numbers use DVOA to rank the teams, so this shows that the Chargers and Bengals are grossly outperforming expectations based on their DVOA.

Conversely, the Eagles and Texans are grossly under–performing based on their DVOA ratings.

It's because of these wild fluctuations thanks to Football Outsiders that I drafted up the third chart.

Standard Deviation (Excluding Football Outsiders)

As pointed out above, Football Outsiders' numbers can be used in conjunction with the other Power Rankings to see which teams are and are not performing to their expectations based on DVOA. But what if we wanted to see where the more subjective rankings are in agreement.

Week 14 Power Rankings Standard Deviation (excluding Football Outsiders)
(Click image for larger view)

Things change quite a bit now. The absolute most-agreed-upon team now? The Chiefs at a 28th–place ranking. Across the board, everyone is in most agreement that the Chiefs are the 5th–worst team in football.

The Saints and Colts are next in their confidence numbers that the Saints are number 1, and the Colts are number 2. But (no surprise here), just as many people feel the Colts are a number 1 team as the Saints are a number 2 team. This just means the Saints and Colts are battling for the top spot with each other, but the consensus still is the Saints are the number 1. Again the Giants are a solid number 12, followed by the Browns being a solid last.

Once we take out the DVOA influence and go with purely subjective numbers, we can see the Chargers are actually more consistent and a solid number 4-5 ranking.

The team the pundits are having the hardest time pinning down: the Jaguars. They just don't know where to place them or what to think of them. They are have almost as hard a time placing the Raiders and Steelers too. Many are afraid to give the Raiders too much credit, while others have basically given up on the Steelers at this point

Conclusion

I realize this has been a rather lengthy analysis and wordy post, but since this is my first Fanpost, and first in what I hope is a series of Power Ranking analysis, I wanted to make sure I covered all my bases. Future posts won't have to explain nearly as much, nor give as much of an introduction.

On to You Guys

With that all said, I would love to get some feedback from all of you in the comments!

  • Most importantly what do you guys think? Do you like the extra analysis and break down? Or is it all a bunch of numbers you don't really care about?
  • How might you want me to change things in the future?
  • Is there something I missed or you'd like to know more about?

Comment away!

This FanPost was written by a member of the Bolts From The Blue community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bolts From The Blue editors or SB Nation.

13 recs  |  Comment 31 comments |

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Holy Crap!

Good Show my good man, good show!

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 10, 2009 3:22 PM PST reply actions  

Pretty sweet.

Please keep it up. Rec’d.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 10, 2009 3:24 PM PST reply actions  

Chargers have a very low standard deviation without FO

Which tells me that either everyone’s subjective rankings of the Chargers is completely off base or DVOA doesn’t do a very good job of considering abstract factors. Well I guess I already knew that. Touche self, touche.

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 10, 2009 3:26 PM PST reply actions   2 recs

One of the reasons FO is different than everyone else's power rankings

is because subjective power rankings tend to be based on just the last couple weeks, whereas DVOA takes the entire season into account.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 10, 2009 3:31 PM PST up reply actions  

I debated using FO's numbers in the Power Rankings

Like you said, Power Rankings are a snapshot of how the team has been doing in the relative short term. DVOA can drag a team down, or lift them up (see: Eagles), based on how they started the season.

But, it is nice to see, especially this late in the season, which teams are perceived to be, or actually are, under–performing based on DVOA like the Eagles, Redskins and Texans; and which ones are over-performing like the Bengals and Chargers.

by creanium on Dec 10, 2009 3:43 PM PST up reply actions  

It's also because

subjective power rankings don’t factor in opponents appropriately. I can’t begin to count how many times some guy who does rankings says something like “the light really turned on for so-in-so at QB this week” and turns out they were playing one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.

The Ravens strike me as a team its ranking a little higher than everyone else because their schedule is pretty tough.

On the other hand, DVOA doesn’t know about Schaub’s injury and so it won’t knock down the Texans until they show they are worse without him.

Finally, subjective analysis, in my opinion, doesn’t do a good job of evaluation how good a win was or how bad a loss was. Sometimes teams have the unfortunate luck of playing teams that, for whatever reason, play a little better than they had been. The Redskins seem to have run into this problem and so their wins and losses look worse because they caught teams on the wrong day. The opposite could be said of the Bengals who seem to catch teams on the right day (like their massacre of the Packers when they lost their LT midgame and couldn’t block anyone).

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 10, 2009 4:16 PM PST up reply actions  

I like the extra analysis and effort you've put in.

I always like the Power Rankings to see everyone’s subjective perceptions of how teams are performing.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 10, 2009 3:31 PM PST reply actions  

What I find really interesting

are the rankings that suddenly dropped the Vikings based on one bad performance.

The Vikings still belong at #3 to me, and if anything the Cardinals should be bumped up to #4-5.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 10, 2009 3:54 PM PST reply actions  

Didn't we find a couple other rankings based off of objective analysis?

I thought we did so that it wasn’t DVOA vs the world.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 10, 2009 4:04 PM PST reply actions  

If you come up with them again, please post them up, I’ll include them in future rankings.

This was just a continuation of Grey Suit’s posts

by creanium on Dec 10, 2009 4:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Great work!

I love the added colors too….way easier to read and get a feel for what belongs and what doesn’t. Great job.

Do or do not. There is no try.

by Clip Show on Dec 10, 2009 4:14 PM PST reply actions  

I found it

They are called Sagarin rankings. Someone mentioned them in week 5.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl09.htm

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 10, 2009 4:19 PM PST up reply actions  

There's also one

That uses some kind of “who-beat-who” analysis to create a power ranking. Not sure where I’d find the link to that.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 10, 2009 4:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Found that too

CoastalBronco mentioned it in week 3. It’s called beatpaths.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 10, 2009 4:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Wonko

You are a stat machine, thank you! Like I said, this is porn for a numbers junky like myself.

I’ll play with those numbers when I have some more time coming up and see how Objective vs Subjective lists compare. This might get to be a bit fun.

by creanium on Dec 10, 2009 4:29 PM PST up reply actions  

While your playing with those numbers

Don’t blow your statistical load before you can post it here.

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 10, 2009 4:34 PM PST up reply actions   3 recs

Rec'd

For making me literally laugh out loud

by creanium on Dec 10, 2009 4:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Premature Calculation?

"Live to love and love to live"!

by Desyrel on Dec 10, 2009 6:55 PM PST up reply actions   3 recs

Great Job

your hard work is appreciated.

by JeromeB on Dec 10, 2009 4:26 PM PST reply actions  

Quick Story

A few weeks ago I told Grey Suit to stop posting the Power Rankings because they were getting no response at all (no recs, no comments). He switched to the prediction by numbers, which is going much better, but obviously your system (with colors and deviations and all that) is a crowd pleaser (it got 10 recs overnight!).

Any time you want to do this type of analysis on power rankings (and now I’m interested to see you incorporate the sites that Wonko linked to above), it’ll go on the front page. Well done.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Dec 11, 2009 4:39 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

Thanks for the Background Story

I love the “Score by the Numbers” series. I may not comment on the stories (nor did I ever comment on the past Power Ranking stories), but they are appreciated.

As far as the Power Rankings Analysis, again I can only speak for myself here, but I did appreciate the post even if I didn’t rec or comment; I think that’s obvious given this FanPost I created. Grey Suit got the ball rolling, and when the posts stopped back in week 8, I had started toying with the idea of doing the rankings and analysis myself back in week 10, but didn’t actually do it until now.

For future posts, I will certainly expand the rankings a bit more and include Wonko’s other sites. I plan to actually create a mini-site on my website that will have interactive versions of these tables, but for now the screenshots of Excel will do.

I’m glad this has turned into quite the crowd-pleaser, and I’m still open to any additional comments/critiques/criticism.

by creanium on Dec 11, 2009 9:50 AM PST up reply actions  

additional comments/critiques/criticism

How about pictures of scantily clad women doing math

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 11, 2009 10:32 AM PST up reply actions  

Men!

The reality is, you guys are irrational!

And , that’s why we luv you!

"Live to love and love to live"!

by Desyrel on Dec 11, 2009 10:45 AM PST up reply actions  

obviously your system (with colors and deviations and all that) is a crowd pleaser

I’m in it for the colors…

by sd_Baby-B on Dec 11, 2009 7:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Nicely done...

Looking forward to the next one. Rec’d.

"As a confirmed melancholic, I can testify that the best and maybe only antidote for melancholia is *action*. However, like most melancholics, I suffer also from sloth." - Edward Abbey.

by Jeff (sliderockmpc) on Dec 11, 2009 11:40 AM PST reply actions  

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