Stat of the Day: LT the TD Machine?

by John Gennaro on Dec 10, 2009 11:12 AM PST in Statistics Comment 8 comments

Ask any Chargers fan how LaDainian Tomlinson is doing this season and you're bound to see a frown. He's not in the MVP conversation, not on pace for 2,000 yards and generally hasn't looked like the star running back we've all come to expect. However, when you look at the stats I think you'll be surprised with how effective LT has been since returning from injury. Let's look at his games in the month of November.

OAK - 18 carries, 56 yds, 2 TD
@NYG - 12 carries, 22 yds
PHI - 24 carries, 96 yds, 2 TD
@DEN - 20 carries, 73 yds, 1 TD
KC - 13 carries, 39 yds, 2 TD

Do you see what I see? 7 TDs in one month. 7 TDs in just 5 games. If you rate his games as pass/fail, you have to say that's 4 good games and only 1 bad one.

Tomlinson's return, and his rushing TDs, have coincided with the Chargers becoming a better team in the red zone. don't think it's a coincidence. LT still appears to have a nose for the end zone, scoring almost a touchdown and a half per game in the month of November.

Now....want to see a strange stat? In those 5 games, Tomlinson only had 3 catches. Actually, for the season (10 games), LT only has 11 catches. It's not his fault, but the weapons around him (the WRs, Mike Tolbert, Darren Sproles) are simply better receivers and usually do a better job at racking up YAC.

Plain and simple, the offense no longer revolves around LT and it no longer has to to survive. However, he's still an efficient RB in goal line situations.

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Which is really nice

because it allows us to take fewer risks up close. One of the reasons I think Phil’s TDs are down this year as opposed to last is because now we actually are having success running it in from a few yards out, where last year Rivers had to throw it in.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 10, 2009 11:26 AM PST reply actions

Not that effective

in my opinion. He has averaged a little over 3 yards a carry during the stretch that you mention, and he has scored on some short touchdown runs. My guess is that most average backs in the NFL could have accomplished what he has since the injury.

Granted he has bumped his numbers up from terrible to just way below average. I guess if you have him in a fantasy league the touchdowns are nice, but for the most part even the touchdown runs have been average runs that most NFL backs would score on.

by JeromeB on Dec 10, 2009 4:42 PM PST reply actions

I agree to some extent

I think LT’s role on the team has changed. He is no longer capable of putting the team on his back, but he is no longer asked to. I’m hoping he morphs into a “Marcus Allen with the Chiefs” style back. Savy short yardage and occassionally effective elsewhere.

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Dec 10, 2009 5:16 PM PST up reply actions

Allen is a good comaprison

but over the span that John was talking about LT has been getting a pretty good amount of carries each week, I think it works out to just over 17 carries a game. In this five game stretch he has gotten as many carries as most teams feature back.

by JeromeB on Dec 10, 2009 7:41 PM PST up reply actions

My point

was that last year, we couldn’t even depend on those short TD runs, leading Philip to have to put the ball up more, giving him more TDs and more INTs. This year we actually are having some success running it in from a few yards out. That not only lessens the risk of a turnover (the odds of LT fumbling are far less than the odds of Phil throwing a pick), but makes teams respect the run more and thus makes it easier on Phil when he does try to throw it in. Earlier in the season when we weren’t running as well in short yardage situations and Phil had to throw all the time in the read zone, teams were dropping tons of guys back and blanketing the receivers. Thus our early red zone problems. Since, we’ve become a lot more efficient up close.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 10, 2009 6:21 PM PST up reply actions

I was not trying to disagree

with your point at all, only with John’s thoughts of how well LT has been playing since his return from injury.

by JeromeB on Dec 10, 2009 7:37 PM PST up reply actions

Didn't know where to post this

but I thought it was an interesting stat. Today in the Browns game Quinn was 6-19 for 90 yards. Which means in their two Wins this year the Browns Qb’s were a combined 8-36 for 113 yards no tds and 1 int.

by elemenohpee on Dec 10, 2009 9:49 PM PST reply actions

Cribbs

Was their best QB, RB, WR, KR and PR for them on Thursday. Glad they took it easy on us with him. He had ~10 yards per carry against us, but less carries. And we only punted once and it was inside the 20 so he couldn’t get them a FG on one like he did against the Steelers.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 10, 2009 10:52 PM PST up reply actions