Week 12 DVOA

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 1, 2009 4:40 PM PST Comment 25 comments

Always a touchy subject on BFTB, Football Outsiders has released their Week 12 DVOA Ratings. The Chargers have had some movement in some interesting places, as well as lack of movement in others. I don't have premium (talk to Wonko or Richard), so what follows is based only on the publicly available stats.

First, the Chargers' overall ranking hasn't changed. Last week, the Chargers were 13th overall, 12th weighted. Again, after Week 12 the Chargers remain 13th overall, 12th weighted. There has been some movement around us--Miami and NYG dropped below us and Houston and Denver moved back above--but the Chargers' overall spot is the same.

This is likely due to the San Diego defense improving, while the offense regressed. On offense they went from #6 overall (#4 weighted) to #7 overall (#6 weighted). Our passing offense improved to the best in football, ahead of the Colts, Pats, and Saints, while our rushing offense fell to next to worst in the league. DVOA apparently liked Philip's incredibly efficient performance, and didn't like LT's goal-line fumble.

The defense saw a noticeable climb. Last week the Chargers were #22 overall, and have improved to #19 (#18 weighted). Our pass defense remains slightly above average at #13, while our rush defense stays pretty abysmal at #25,

As for individuals, Philip ranks #6 in DYAR (total value) and #4 in DVOA (value per play).

Vincent Jackson, who for much of the season has lead all wide receiver categories, has fallen behind Reggie Wayne and Sidney Rice in DYAR, and behind just Rice in DVOA. His relatively quiet last three games is probably to blame for this. However, the Charger player who has been taking Vincent's touches away from him tops the charts.

Antonio Gates now leads all NFL tight ends in DYAR, and is #2 in DVOA behind Ben Watson of the Pats.

In the Playoff Odds charts, our overall chances of making the playoffs have improved to 92.2%, and our chance of securing a first round bye is 35.6%, which is better than every AFC team save the Colts.

So after improving for several weeks, we appear to be holding steady. As I mentioned in another comment, I think the Chargers have as good a chance as anyone in the AFC of reaching the Super Bowl.

As a side note, if Richard could post an updated version of the Chargers' weekly DVOA graph I'd be much appreciated.

2009_sd_weekly_dvoa_performance_w12_medium

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Playoff odds

To put it differently, right now at the bare minimum for the Chargers to miss the playoffs, they would have to lose 2 out of their remaining 5 and 2 of wildcard contenders (not including the Broncos and not including any “contender” with more than 5 losses) would have to go 5-0 and the Broncos would have to go at least 4-1 . And even then it would come down to tiebreakers to decide it.

If the Chargers lost 3 of their remaining 5. Then 2 of the wild card contenders would have to go at least 4-1 (or if they currently have 6 losses, then 5-0) and the Broncos would have to go at least 3-2. And, still, it would come down to tiebreakers to decide who moves on.

Obviously, the Chargers aren’t in a position where they can basically tank the rest of the season and still get in (like the Colts) or cruise the rest of the way (like the Vikings and Saints), but as long as they win a few along the way then it’s going to be tough for all those teams to pass them.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 1, 2009 5:04 PM PST reply actions

Also, why it's important to actually play the games

According to their projections, the Chargers should be 6-5 and the Ravens should be 8-3.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 1, 2009 6:01 PM PST reply actions

Are you talking about Estimated Wins? That assumes a league average schedule.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Dec 1, 2009 6:12 PM PST up reply actions

That is what I was referring to.

I was trying to get to the idea that the Ravens have played well in most of their losses, while we’ve played poorly in a couple of our wins.

Thanks for posting the updated graph. I’m a bit concerned that our upward trend is starting to flatten out. Part of that is probably because the Chiefs aren’t a good team, and we didn’t really play all that well. We gave up a lot of big runs, a big pass play, fumbled on the goal line.

Here’s to hoping that we can keep improving, because we’re still way behind the Saints and Vikings.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 1, 2009 10:44 PM PST up reply actions

I've another question for Richard/Wonko.

Why are we the #1 pass offense in the NFL, but Rivers isn’t the #1 QB?

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 1, 2009 10:46 PM PST reply actions

Off the top of my head

Penalties could be a factor. Receivers fumbling the ball might be a factor. Other than that, I’m not sure. You’ll have to ask them.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 1, 2009 11:14 PM PST up reply actions

quick thought on DVOA

One reason we don’t move in the ratings is that they take the whole year and add it up. Nothing is going to change the sum of all the prior DVOA games, so even if we blow it up, we are only adding a little. Tells more about the whole season rather than recent performance.

Also, the way SD gets its yards: not a lot of sustained, long drives but fast drives where we get a lot of yards quickly and score or we punt. DVOA likes long drives. I like whatever wins and I love that every defense has to fear anytime they have 1×1 with either VJ or Floyd they are going to be tested down the field with a jump ball pass.

On that topic, I don’t think I have ever seen a team consistently use height as much as SD. Typically it is about separation and timing, but SD is like “we don’t have to separate, just throw it high”. Could be brilliant. Probably easier to defend separation than height.

by jayman66 on Dec 1, 2009 11:08 PM PST reply actions

DVOA loves fast drives that end in TDs

It’s a rate stat, so those will rate high. DYAR will not like it because it is a counting stat. You could think of them as akin to Yards/Play (for DVOA) and Total Yards (DYAR). What DVOA will not like is a fast scoring drive followed by a couple 3 and outs. It would probably come out better if the team had 3 sustained drives that resulted in changing the field position and maybe a field goal or two. DVOA just likes whatever has been proven to help teams win, so you have something in common with it.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 1, 2009 11:19 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

I see us as being pretty competitive in the AFC

but for once the NFC has a couple really scary teams. It would suck to finally make it back to the Super Bowl only to have a redux of #29.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 1, 2009 11:40 PM PST reply actions

NO and Vikings

Look mighty good. Anybody know what the W/L split between the conferences is this season?

"Football is a physical sport, sometimes you have a disagreement on what's going on, and you have a discussion about it." Kris Dielman

by Brian (DaBolts) on Dec 2, 2009 9:54 AM PST up reply actions

Here ya go.

AFC: 90-86
NFC: 86-90

Each conference has 8 teams with winning records.

Still relatively even overall, but the NFC has two really good teams and the AFC only has one. I guess that decreases the chances of a good-average team upsetting one of the top two in the NFC, while the AFC has just the one great team, with several good teams below them.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 10:29 AM PST up reply actions

Thanks

I always think of the AFC being better overall, but I guess that’s not true anymore.

Who do you think the ‘great’ AFC team is. Oddly enough I would go with Pittsburgh if they have everyone on the field, I’m not sold on Indy.

"Football is a physical sport, sometimes you have a disagreement on what's going on, and you have a discussion about it." Kris Dielman

by Brian (DaBolts) on Dec 2, 2009 1:41 PM PST up reply actions

AFC has more depth, NFC (Saints, Vikings) have better top teams.

Although the Vikings wouldn’t be that great without Favre’s best season EVAR. As to the “great” AFC team, ESPN’s power rankings have the Bolts #4 behind the Saints, Colts, and Vikings… Just sayin…

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by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 2, 2009 1:59 PM PST up reply actions

Somebody

Called the Bolts dangerous, but not elite; I thought that seemed fair enough. The end of the season will tell the tale.

"Football is a physical sport, sometimes you have a disagreement on what's going on, and you have a discussion about it." Kris Dielman

by Brian (DaBolts) on Dec 2, 2009 5:11 PM PST up reply actions

I don't like that our DVOA has started trending downward.

It peaked against Philly, and has started down again. We’re going to have to play really well against Dallas and Cincy to get it back up.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 6:39 PM PST reply actions

I know

That’s going to really hurt our chances with the BCS committee.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 2, 2009 6:59 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

I probably phrased that the wrong way.

What I meant was that we need to play better against good competition. I’d like to know that the team is capable of actually beating good teams with superior play and not luck. The former bodes well for the playoffs, and the latter doesn’t.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 8:07 PM PST up reply actions

Part of that is the caliber of team they played against. You really, really have to obliterate a Kansas City to get a DVOA as high as we saw for the Philly game.

by Richard Wade on Dec 2, 2009 8:58 PM PST up reply actions

I figured that.

And that makes me think how incredibly well NE must have played to get a DVOA of over 100% against Tennessee

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 9:12 PM PST up reply actions

I just looked at the graph of our DVOA from 2008

and boy were we an up and down team. Literally one week we’d be well above average, and the next significantly below it. We won three games where we posted negative DVOA, and lost four games with a positive DVOA.

This year, we seem to be consistently slightly above or below average.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 9:22 PM PST up reply actions

I talked about this before

2008 is basically beyond the point of using it for any rational comparisons because the team was too inconsistent. The won games where they played well, they won games where they played badly, they lost games where they played well and they lost games where they played badly. It was a roulette game of which Chargers team would come to play combined with how well the opposition would play. Completely unpredictable. This year’s team has pretty much played around the average and then lately has played really well, so they make every team have to come out and beat them instead of giving away games here and there.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 3, 2009 10:22 AM PST up reply actions

I'm curious.

Do you think the current team has enough upside to have a realistic chance at a championship?

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 3, 2009 10:32 AM PST up reply actions

Championship?

Too hard to predict. I don’t really know that their is a way to determine who could be a champion beyond the logic “Any team that makes the playoffs can win a championship”. I posit that almost any team capable of qualifying for the playoffs is capable of going on a 3-4 game win streak against some of the league’s best teams. That’s all a NFL champion is to me, one of the top 12 teams in the league that went on a 3-4 game win streak to end the season. Pretending its anything more than that is delusional in my opinion.

Now, if you’re asking me if the current team has enough upside to be the best in the league, then I’d have to say “no”. From the moment Jamal went down, I felt like this team was not one capable of being an elite team this year. Still capable of being one of those top 12 with the shot at the championship, but not a team that was in the upper-echelon.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 3, 2009 11:31 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs