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State of the AFC West Week 12

State of the AFC West is back this week after taking the holiday week off because I was out of state without my laptop. Actually, I had something prepared for last week but it's good that I didn't publish it because it would make me look less than prescient about the Chiefs and Broncos. On the other hand, Raiders suck-age is easy to predict no matter the circumstances.

I have to say that I didn't give the Broncos much of a chance against the Giants; although I will say I think that game probably said more about the Giants than the Broncos. The New York media is all saying how the Giants looked flatter than they've seen all season and that the team has lost its passion.

On the other hand, I was going to say how the Chiefs had improved; that was until the annoying Chief trolls came. It's a good thing that they did come because the Chiefs didn't really improve, they still suck; maybe just slightly less so with the release of Johnson. Jamaal Charles looks like the only good player on that team though.

Anyhoo, the Chargers are the first team in the division to finish division play, completing the tour with a 5-1 record. The Raiders and Chiefs still have a chance to play spoiler and affect the playoff picture; the Chiefs still have both games against the Broncos and the Raiders also play the Broncos once more.

One thing that I thought was interesting is that if you look at points allowed San Diego and Denver are almost identical when earlier in the season there was a wide gap. I wonder if its San Diego's defense improving or Denver's regressing. With the emergence of Vince Young, the Chargers have three tough games left: @Dallas, vs. Cinci, and @Tenn. The Broncos have two tough games left @Indy and @Philly. The tiebreaker scenario may end up to be important so I think it will also be difficult for Denver to sweep the 3 remaining division games.

Jump the break, yo.

 


AFC West Standings

W L T PF PA
San Diego 8 3 0 312 219
Denver 7 4 0 196 189
Oakland 3 8 0 115 258
Kansas City 3 8 0 183 282

(updated 12.1.2009 at 1:12 AM PST)


Star-divide

 

I'm not going to post the injury widgets anymore because they suck and are inaccurate.

 

Oakland Raiders: A week after a big upset win the Raiders returned to their getting blown out ways. They gave up 24 points to the Cowboys who have had an enormous struggle with scoring points in recent weeks. Bruce Gradkowski similarly regressed and simply didn't play very well. It seems like neither Russell or Gradkowski is the answer at  QB and they will have to look at the draft and try not to fail. Again. *cough* Russell, Heyward-Bey, McFadden *cough* DE Greg Ellis re-injured his surgically repaired knee in the loss and is questionable to play against the Steelers. The only other important injury is Justin Fargas who also is questionable. It looks like Ben will be back on Sunday so the Raiders will have their hands full with the Steelers and will try to play wildcard spoiler as well.

 

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs thought that one win turned around the franchise. Think again. Its going to take a lot more than that to turn that mess around. That being said, Charger fans are definitely Chief fans for the rest of the season. Well, I guess they are getting better in that case. The only two games they have been blown out in were the two against the Chargers. If they limit the mistakes and stick to the run maybe they can help the Chargers out in the playoff picture. The Chiefs didn't sustain any additional injures, just the same ones as last week (Vrabel, Rogers, Savage, Herron). Bowe is still out from his PED suspension. With the Chiefs season over, the only story worth thinking about besides being spoiler is Charlie Weis' firing from Notre Dame. There is a strong possibility that Weis may take over as offensive coordinator at Kansas City given his connection with Scott Pioli and Haley request to focus more on overall game management. We'll have to see how it plays out.

 

Denver Broncos: After their embarrassing 4 game losing streak, the Broncos absolutely laid wood on the G-Men who looked like little girls on Thanksgiving. What does this mean for the Broncos? Probably a first round playoff loss. We'll have to see how they respond against a weak opponent in the Chiefs on Sunday. Either way, I still think teams have figured out how to scheme against them and the defense is going to play old. Eddie Royal left the game with a thigh injury and I haven't heard anything else about that. Losing Royal for any amount of time would be a huge loss. They are only 4.5 point favorites right now so the rest of the world hasn't regained their confidence yet. Not much else going on in Bronco land right now as things seem to have settled down after the win although Brandon Marshall has been real ornery lately.

 

San Diego Chargers: Another week, another win, another injury. The only thing stopping the Bolts right now from making a deep playoff run is injuries. Good thing we have a bye week to rest the walking wounded and let Hardwick and Runyan settle in. From what my inside sources tell me, Eric Weddle is out for probably two weeks, Luis Castillo and Shawne Merriman will likely rest against the Browns. Everyone else looks ok. Larry English will probably get alot of playing time and we might be able to see what he can do in that role. I just got the exclusive scoop that OLB Marques Harris is re-signing today. That should help with depth at that position.  The DL by committee shuffle win continue as is without Luis; we are definitely weaker against the run without him but we will manage. Hopefully he can return for the Dallas game because they have some dynamic backs. At safety, Oliver and Gregory should do the job just fine with Cason in the nickle and Ellison in on running downs.

Hopefully everyone will be rested up and healed in time to make a playoff run. I don't think this Cromartie thing is going to distract anyone with Phil and Norv at the helm and he'll play at least until he gets suspended or convicted. We'll have to see how it plays out but I assume Cason would take over if it comes to that. Let's hope his teammates who are saying he didn't do anything are telling the truth.

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Comments

Display:

I think we can definitely let some starters rest this week

Our entire 2nd string should be able to be the Browns. Personally I’d like to see Larry English get a start under his belt.

by Harsh_619 on Dec 1, 2009 11:36 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

That's how you lose to inferior teams

I think Norv will play everyone until the 4th quarter and when the game is in hand second stringers come in.

by Dude52089 on Dec 1, 2009 11:50 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That and

you don’t play some of your more worrisome injuries. Don’t push Merriman, Burnett or Castillo into playing and you don’t pressure Hardwick or Runyan to be ready for this game.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 1, 2009 11:54 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree you need to play the #1s until the game is in hand in the 2nd half

but like you said in cases such as Merriman, Castillo, and Burnett it would probably be better to have them rest and be ready for Gauntlet #2. Sounds like they’re also going to use this game to ease in Nick and John so they can start @ Dallas.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 1, 2009 11:58 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

play to win

u keep winning i will back u

okay i have cereal palsy arhrtis and chronic fatiue as well i have a grea life loveing folks some days are better that other days i got a make a wish in 2001 saw my favorive team the broncos was the trip of the lifetime i wish everyone couild gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that ok but i bleed organ and bule

by j-man on Dec 1, 2009 7:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

I should of stated that also. Starters that are 100% would have been more accurate then everyone.

by Dude52089 on Dec 1, 2009 12:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

ESPECIALLY NOW THAT WE

control our own destiny as far as the #2 seed after the patriots loss last night. we cant afford to take anyone for granted now

by $#%@ eli and his daddy on Dec 1, 2009 12:25 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

HARRIS

KA reporting this guy should sign today, looks like we will finally be able to get rid of the 3rd center the team has been carrying.
Stinks Lights wont play but this should upgrade our STs

by AirNorval on Dec 1, 2009 12:28 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Bye bye Norman

We hardly knew ye.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 1, 2009 12:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hopefully he stays right side up; Im curious if we can get a real cheap multi year deal out of him.

by AirNorval on Dec 1, 2009 12:31 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I think we've got as good a chance as anybody in the AFC to get to the Super Bowl.

But were we to get there, I sure wouldn’t want to see the Vikings or Saints staring back at me.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 1, 2009 12:41 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I just noticed "my inside sources."

= Kevin Acee twitter.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 1, 2009 12:56 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

anyone else worried

That the colts might phone in their game against the donks? I saw something that said the colts will play untill they lock up the no. 1 seed then rest players. Since they have clinched the div. anyone think they will rest starters against the donks? I’m sure they would rather play denver than us in the playoffs. JMO

by irishlad on Dec 1, 2009 3:20 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Depends on when they lock up the #1 seed

and whether Jim Caldwell is as dumb as Tony Dungy.

Who am I kidding? Caldwell doesn’t do anything on that team. It depends on whether Manning feels like chasing records or not.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 1, 2009 3:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The Colts will not have #1 seed locked up by then

The Chargers and Bengals are currently 8-3 and the Colts 11-0.
Mostly likely after next week the Chargers and/or the Bengals are 9-3 and the Colts 12-0. That still leaves the door open for the Chargers or Bengals to get the #1 seed. So they won’t have it “locked up.” It’s also a home game for the Colts and much like the preseason, I think the team with at least try to shine it on for the home crowd.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 1, 2009 3:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If the Chargers win out, or 4 of 5

…and the Colts lose the equivalent number, we’re the #1 seed. Sorry, 3/5 doesn’t cut it due to tiebreaker rules.

"Wipe that golden tear from your mother dear, and raise what's left of the flag for me."-- Flogging Molly, "What's Left Of The Flag"

Ali Villanueva (OT/WR, Army) has 460 yards and 5 TDs in only 7 games with a mediocre quarterback. Just sayin'...

by StrangeBroP25 on Dec 1, 2009 8:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Even if they do...

… the Chargers are more-or-less done losing for the year; you can expect them to win at least 4 games. The Donks would have to win out, and the Iggles will be motivated at home in Week 16.

by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Dec 1, 2009 6:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

4?

I can just as easily see them going 2-3 over the rest of the season.

by Dalton on Dec 1, 2009 7:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If we do that

With our remaining schedule. That hoping for any playoff success seems kind of pointless.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 1, 2009 11:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

*Then hoping for any playoff success seems kind of pointless.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 1, 2009 11:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Right

and they could win 4 games. And I do think and hope that they have playoff success (and win the Super Bowl).

I’m just not prepared to say that 4 wins down the stretch are in the bag.

by Dalton on Dec 2, 2009 11:11 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Good Job

Hey Broncos fan here and Im not here to hate haha. Even though I despise your team more than any other in the NFL.

But It looks like you guys have the high road to the playoffs again unless there is a melt down against either the Cowboys and Cinci. The Broncos have to win 4 of 5 which means the most likely being a win in Philly along with 3 division wins.

If so hope to see you in the AFC championship game. Good luck on the rest of your season and great posts from your Bolts from the blue staff!

by gwbushby on Dec 1, 2009 7:45 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

A

logical and non hater post from another fan is always appreciated here.

by GABOLT on Dec 1, 2009 8:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

More than any other team?

Even the Raiders?

I think the only teams I hate are the Raiders and Pats. I guess I have a mild dislike of the Broncos and Steelers maybe, but that’s probably more particular players than the teams in general.

by Dalton on Dec 1, 2009 9:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I totally hate the Broncos

I’ve said it many times. I enjoy rooting against the Broncos as much as I enjoy rooting for the Chargers. It pains me almost as much to see the Broncos win as it does to see the Chargers lose.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 1, 2009 11:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Me too

If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!

Robert Hunter

by Buck Melanoma on Dec 2, 2009 3:53 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If he hated the Chargers when they were in second place he wasn’t the only Charger fan that did so.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Dec 2, 2009 1:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

My hate shifts to whichever douchebag AFC West team is threatening my Broncos...

which means I only despise the Chargers right now. I hope you get Norv’d! And I hope the real Broncos are the Weeks 1-6 and 12 Broncos and not the Weeks 7-11 Broncos. There is apparently no inbetween…

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The guy formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Dec 2, 2009 12:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Norv is a good head coach

This team just comes out flat every year.

by Dude52089 on Dec 2, 2009 1:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Even when they went 14-2 and fired Marty?

I am almost certain that the Chargers hopes for a Super Bowl were killed by that firing…the Chargers have how many playoff wins under Norv?

I’m not trying to stir the pot, but my perspective changed drastically after Mike Shanahan was fired….I realized how easily my orange and blue goggles cloud my vision. Enough so that I truly thought the Broncos were in the same category as the Chargers last year.

I don’t think the Broncos are yet in the same category as the Chargers, but we are the closest we’ve been since 2005! And if we will this division this year it will be more because the Chargers blew it than it would be because the Broncos siezed it. 2010 will be a whole different story…this year might be the last “cakewalk” season for the Chargers and their AFC West dominance.

And Norv is not a good coach…he took a 14-2 football team and turned it into an above average playoff team. Certainly not a Super Bowl contender. Mike Shanahan was a good coach…even good coaches need a nice large foot up their ass once in a while – the Chargers need a disciplinarian…then you will see those slow starts turn into dominating starts and finishes.

I really believe your franchise squandered a perfect chance to build a dynasty when they fired Marty…of course, if you all win the Super Bowl this year I may just have to eat some crow. :P

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The guy formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Dec 2, 2009 2:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Chargers have 3 playoff wins under Norv and 0 under Marty

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 2, 2009 2:11 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

3 Playoff Wins is good enough to tie him for most by any Chargers coach in the franchise’s history.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Dec 2, 2009 2:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Just personal opinion

I know you are entitled to yours but Marty didn’t have playoff success, both years Norv has been here, whether he inherited a 14-2 team or not, he has made the playoffs and won at least one game. I should of clarified that we come out flat under Norv. Maybe its my bias as a team but Norv’s 3 postseason wins > Marty’s 0 postseason wins.

by Dude52089 on Dec 2, 2009 2:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

People get blinded by 14-2.

The truth is that team wasn’t as good as their record indicated. They played a cream-puff schedule and even then were barely eking out wins against below-average teams to close out the season. The 2007 team was better, especially at the end of each respective season. The 2009 team may be better than the 2007 one, though that remains to be seen.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 2:24 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

This point will be further proven

When the Chargers play the NFC West again next year.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 2, 2009 2:28 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

How about when we sweep the NFC BEAST this year?

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 2, 2009 2:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That's just a sign of our awesomeness

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 2, 2009 2:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Touche Salesman

I too have an uncle

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 2, 2009 2:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You know,

the Broncos went 13-3 in 1996 and lost their first playoff game. Good thing Pat Bowlen didn’t overreact and fire Mike Shanahan because he was a loser in Oakland in the 80’s.

The Broncos went on to win SEVEN playoff games in two years…going a combined 33-6 over that span. Such is how the dynasty is made.

After a 14-3 season, the Chargers have gone:
13-6 and 9-9

Still no Super bowl…8-3 now though, so perhaps this is finally the year all the pieces are put together!

I just don’t think so. The Chargers are not as good as they were…though the AFC is not as good as they were either….who knows!

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The guy formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Dec 2, 2009 2:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We will see

If we can wrap up a 2 seed this year, very optimistic approach at it, then i feel really confident considering we would have wins against @Dallas Cinci and @Tenn (they look so much better after VY took over) The colts don’t scare me but I’ll keep cheering for those chargers good luck the rest of this year.

by Dude52089 on Dec 2, 2009 2:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Very well said.

More on Marty’s suggestions for coaches: He wanted to bring in his brother to interview for DC. Dean Spanos told him not to. Marty went ahead and made travel arrangements for his brother to come in and interview.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Dec 2, 2009 3:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think

We need a post somewhere that is like the one that explains how to the reply button, etc. that explains the Marty decision in full to anyone in denial about it. That way we can just point them to it when they try to re-write history to suit their purposes.

Might as well put up the Brees/Rivers history as well.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 2, 2009 3:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That’s a good idea.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Dec 2, 2009 3:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

FAQ Section?

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 2, 2009 3:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sort of.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Dec 2, 2009 3:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Plus 1995 was Shanny's second year.

And he immediately followed it up with a pair of Super Bowls.

2006 was Marty’s 5th year, and his track record by that point was well established in San Diego and elsewhere. There was zero reason to believe he would suddenly become someone he wasn’t.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 2:49 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I mean 1996.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 2:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And after 1996 Shanny only had three full years as an HC under his belt.

Marty had over 300 after 2006. Like I said, Marty’s track record was well established, while Shanny’s wasn’t.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 2:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Marty had over 300 games.

Man I’m typing like Wonko.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 2:52 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

It's easy to type like me

It’s harder to aggressively ignore reading what you typed before clicking “POST”

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 2, 2009 2:56 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I also submit

That in 2006 the Chargers went 14-2 against the 3rd easiest schedule in the NFL.
In 1996, the Broncos went 13-3 against the 17th hardest schedule.

That seems to me to exemplify the difference between a team feeding on a cream puff schedule and one legitimately beating at least average teams. It’s the difference between one team obviously needing to give their coach another year and another team not needing to give their coach any extra credit for a high win total.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 2, 2009 3:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

In that vein

we’ve played so far the 22nd hardest schedule, and have the 25th hardest in front of us (by DVOA). Dunno what that says about us.

New Orleans appears to have played one of the easiest schedules in the league. #29 so far, and only #26 going forward.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 3:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It says a lot about us

It says less about New Orleans since they have manhandled the few good teams they have played.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 2, 2009 3:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sigh.

Well I guess we’ll see what happens as the season progresses.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 3:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It also says a lot about the Chiefs and Raiders

No other division has two teams in the bottom 5 in DVOA.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 2, 2009 3:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

True dat

But if you do have an easy schedule and you want to think of yourself as a SB contender, it would inspire more confidence if your DVOA was at the top instead of floating around the middle of the pack.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 2, 2009 3:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

In regards to that

I take a bit of solice in the fact that the team is definitely playing better now, and our overall DVOA probably won’t move that much due to the number of neutral to negative DVOA games we had early in the season.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 3:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Our weighted DVOA will though

I think that’s the one to keep an eye on. If we don’t get that think moving, I’m not going to feel good about playing the NFL heavies in the post season.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 2, 2009 4:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Aaron mentioned in an earlier post

that weighted still won’t be that different from overall.

If we keep playing well, those crappy early games we played against Oakland, Baltimore, and Denver should lose weight and the latter ones should get more. Also would be nice for Denver and KC to win more, as that would help our opponent adjustments and we’d get more credit for blowing them out, and less blame for losing to Denver earlier.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 4:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Look at SD in 2007

We 18.4% in DVOA (ranked 7th) and 25.5% in Weighted DVOA (ranked 3rd) to end the year. That was a nice improvement and the team did pretty well in the playoffs to the point of even holding their own against one of the greatest teams of all time. I’d prefer to see something like that.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 2, 2009 4:13 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Or in 2006

Where the Patriots actually finished with a lower total DVOA than the Chargers, but a higher weighted DVOA. And we know how that turned out.

Of course, there is some confirmation bias here. In 2008 the Colts improved their weighted DVOA wrt their total DVOA and lost to us.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 2, 2009 4:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I know that the Chargers probably aren't as good as their record indicates.

We have to hope they continue to improve, though I don’t know how likely that’s going to be given that the injury situation keeps getting worse, instead of better.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 5:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sure, I'd like to see that too.

And maybe it’ll happen. It’ll probably depend on our performance vs. Dallas, Cincy, and Tennessee, given I doubt we’ll get much credit for beating Cleveland or Washington.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 4:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder...

where does Denver rank in DVOA played and upcoming?

It’s felt like a solidly brutal schedule….but then again, 7-4 could end in 9-7 and no playoffs or 11-5 and some playoff experience.

As for Marty, the guy coached the best AFC team of the mid 80’s…if it weren’t for John Elway’s greatness he would have gotten to that Super Bowl. A young team needs playoff experience…they just don’t go out there the first time and win it all. I’d argue that the Chargers would have won those playoff games regardless of who was coaching them – they were that talented. Norv seriously holds this team back…you should go get Mike Shanahan next year – we’ve all seen what he can do with talented players. FYI, Jay Cutler is NOT talented. :P John Elway and Terrell Davis were talented. Phillip Rivers is talented and LT was/is(?) talented.

You guys need a SUPER BOWL WINNER as your head coach…Norv Turner is LOL! not.

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The guy formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Dec 2, 2009 4:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Denver's schedule

Past: 7th hardest
Future: 28th hardest

Variance: 26th
Why include variance. Teams with a high variance are more likely to lose to a bad team or beat a great team, it just depends on how well they show up that week. Their future schedule becomes less meaningful because of that. I guess they’ll just have to play the games.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 2, 2009 4:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think it's bad reasoning

to assume that a coach who historically implodes in the post-season would suddenly not do so.

I’m not trying to say Turner is perfect, but it’s incorrect to assume that retaining Marty would have made everything OK. It wouldn’t have. It probably would have hurt.

Teams need the coach that is right for them. We got to the point where Marty wasn’t that guy anymore. Shanny was the right coach for you guys in the late 90’s, and lately he wasn’t anymore. Just because a coach has or hasn’t won a Super Bowl doesn’t make them a terrible or great coach.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 4:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Imploded seems like an overstatement

I can follow the logic that he didn’t have a lot of success in the postseason and that may lead to believing that he wouldn’t attain future success. But, I never really got the feeling that he was imploding in the postseason. At least with the Chargers, they played the same way that got them there, but came out on the losing end. With Norv, they’ve eeked out a few victories and kudos to those teams for doing so. I really haven’t seen that much of a difference “implosion”-wise.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 2, 2009 4:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I guess that's probably fair.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 5:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I’d really be interested in seeing you defend your position with facts rather than just making assertions like “Norv seriously holds this team back.”

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Dec 2, 2009 4:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

14-2.

That solves everything.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 4:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Funny

I also find that “Regression to the mean” solves things as well. Yet they seem to be in contradiction here.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 2, 2009 4:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

By regression to the mean

I’m not sure what you’re referring to.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 5:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

G0d these "Norv will never take the team to a superbowl" people piss me off

Can we just write a disclaimer at the top that if you start nonsensically Norv bashing without any reason you will be automatically banned? How the hell does 3 playoff wins in 2 seasons worse than the 0 playoff wins Marty got? Since when is success in the regular season better than success in the post-season. Norv bashing is the worst kind of stupid and it doesn’t even make sense.

GO BACK TO YOUR SHANTIES.

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 2, 2009 5:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

A smidgen excessive there…

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Dec 2, 2009 5:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Something needs to be done!

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 2, 2009 5:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

2006 team was better than you remember

They did play a fairly easy schedule but for the most part they hammered everyone. Only 2 of their wins that season were by less than a touchdown and both of their losses were by 3 points. To end the season they beat Denver by 28, KC by 11, SEA by 3 and the Cards by 7. They were not that far away from having an undefeated season. They outplayed the Pats in the play offs but had some tough plays go against them and lost. They were the best team in the nfl that season in my opinion.
I am not trying to defend Marty, as I have no problem with him being fired when he was, but I don’t think you are giving that team the credit that they deserve.

by JeromeB on Dec 2, 2009 7:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

DVOA agrees with

It also said they were the best team in the NFL that season.

It also thought that their schedule was really easy and they should have only won 12 games. I can’t help but think that was pretty accurate.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 2, 2009 7:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Nice to be in agreement with the DVOA

I was just pointing out that Maestro was a little harsh to say that the team was “not as good as their 14-2 record”. And when he said that they were “eking out wins against below average teams to close out the season”, that just was not the case. The only team that they “eeked” out a win against down the stretch was Seattle, and the Seahawks won their division (granted a weak one) then beat Dallas in the Play offs, then lost in OT to the bears in the second round.
I enjoy reading the posts that you guys put up about DVOA and I think I am getting a better grasp on it each week.

by JeromeB on Dec 2, 2009 8:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Anyone remember the home game against Oakland?

Where we trailed 14-7 with 10 minutes left and had to convert a 4th down to get into position to tie the game?

And barely hanging on to beat Buffalo 24-21?

Down the stretch they played about as well as they did in the playoffs against the Pats. Which wasn’t very good, especially Philip.

Maybe I was a little harsh, but I’d like to see how they performed week-to-week the last 5-6 games of the season. The Denver and Arizona games they played all right, but against Oakland, Buffalo, Kansas City, and Seattle probably not so much. Rivers, in particular, played particularly poorly, completing less than 50% of his passes every one of those games I mentioned except at Buffalo.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 2, 2009 8:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If you want to go back 6 weeks

I would agree that the Raider game was a tough win against a not very good team. But I the rest of the wins in the final five games I do not see as eeking out games against below average teams.

The Buffalo game was a cold weather game @ Buffalo (7-9 that season) and the Chargers had a 24 – 14 lead in the 4th quarter, the bills did score a touchdown in the 4th but it was hardly eeking out a win.
They then beat the Broncos (9-7) 48 -20.
Followed by the Chiefs (who sucked that year) 20-9, the game was not in doubt.
Then the Seahawks (hardly a below average team that year), but I will grant you it was a close game.
Then the last game of the season the season they beat the Cardinals (another crappy team). While the final of the Cardinal game was 27 – 20, in the 4th quarter the Chargers had a 27 -10 lead. To me this game was never in doubt either.

The two games they lost were actually very close to being wins.
Tynes kicked a 53 yarder to beat them in the Chiefs game, and Baltimore scored late to give them their other loss.

by JeromeB on Dec 3, 2009 12:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually I would like to retract

My comment about the Chiefs sucking that year. I think they might have even been a wild card team.
So in their final 6 games they beat 2 play off teams, wiped out a 9-7 Bronco team, beat a 7-9 bills team on the road, handled a crappy card team fairly easy, and were lucky to beat a crappy raider team.

by JeromeB on Dec 3, 2009 12:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Dec 3, 2009 4:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

God that's good

I think I got aroused a little.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 4, 2009 1:40 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

How do you like that nice downward trend at the end?

Bolts from the Blue // "I have got to be the most boring GM in the league." - A.J. Smith
Bloody Elbow // "I win again. Engrish is my bitch." - Steven Zucconi

by Richard Wade on Dec 5, 2009 3:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I just really like that only 1 game is below that bold 0.0% line

And that 10 of those yellow squares are above that 25.0% line.

So much better than looking at that 2008 graph.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 5, 2009 9:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Denver fans are ok

I’ve gone to two games in Denver. one at Mile High and one at Invesco sporting Charger gear both times and never got hassled, just friendly banter.

i dislike Pittsburgh and NE way more than Denver.

by boltsgamedayfootball on Dec 1, 2009 10:40 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I too have been too a few Bronco games...

The first in 1998 in San Diego…ran into several pricks who apparently didn’t like John Elway. Luckily the stadium was filled with bandwagon fans and it was more like a Bronco home game.

The second was last year in Oakland on Monday Night Football…41-14. My brother overheard one guy in the bathroom who wanted to find a Bronco fan to drown in the clogged urinals.

I think I’ll take the pricks from San Diego over the pyschotics in Oakland any day. :P

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The guy formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Dec 2, 2009 1:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

As a Chiefs fan

I find it unfortunate that “Chief trolls” came here and started whatever. I do know there has been some issues between certain members of BFTB and AP, but I’m not involved in it and dont plan to. I’m not one of those trolls.

However, to be fair, I think its too early to say whether the Chiefs have improved or not, so I disagree with the “It’s a good thing that they did come because the Chiefs didn’t really improve, they still suck; maybe just slightly less so with the release of Johnson.” comment.

The Chargers smashed on us this past week. And earlier in the season. However, earlier this season, we were smashed straight up. This past week, we were smashed..except we were smashing ourselves ON TOP of what the Chargers were putting on us.

Charles had a couple of good runs on the same drive which could have led to a TD to tie the game at 14. Instead, the extra effort resulted in a fumble..that the chargers eventually scored on. Then you have Cassel’s fumble into the hands of a Charger, who raced for another TD. You got the Chiefs Center snapping the ball over Cassels head..TWICE (Niswanger isnt a good center..but in the 2 1/2 seasons hes been a starter, I’ve NEVER seen him do that. A pass bounced off a Charger helmet and into the hands of Jammer. How often does that happen? Seriously.

All 3 mistakes led to 3 TD’s. Take away those mistakes and maybe its a respectable game. Maybe those 3 mistakes NOT happening changes the whole face of the game.

Of course, this is all “maybe this, maybe that”..but I think its fair to say that the Chiefs may have lost either way, BUT I think its also fair to say that we brought the ass kicking on ourselves.

by Petey14 on Dec 2, 2009 5:03 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I can't argue too much with that

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 2, 2009 5:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Something I didnt even notice until now..

The Chargers had 5 TD’s against us. 4 of them were off turnovers.

Hats off to the Chargers for scoring on turnovers as important as it is. Its a shame the ball was turned over so much considering we havent turned the ball over so easy all year. I could be wrong but I’m pretty sure that we’re atleast positive in the turnover ratio.

by Petey14 on Dec 2, 2009 5:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Without the turnovers for points

The Chargers would have been scoring more towards the end. Those FGs at the end would have maybe been TDs.

Just cause the Chargers scored 4/5 touchdowns off TDs off turnovers doesnt mean they wouldnt have scored 5 without the turnovers.

The Chargers arent the best team by far but they will put up 30pts and challenge the other team to do the same. This kind of strategy can lead to turnovers; bads snaps deflected and phantom passes err fumbles included.

by AirNorval on Dec 2, 2009 10:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

All that said

I was impressed with the Chiefs Dline. Towards the end of the Denver game the Chargers were destroying Denver on the ground with two FBs who are STs guys; and almost never get significant rushing attempts.

That didnt happen vs KC.

by AirNorval on Dec 2, 2009 10:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Chiefs have played somewhat respectable defense this year

There you go Chiefs fans, your 1 compliment from Wonko this decade.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 3, 2009 10:35 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Your premise is basically “If the Chiefs didn’t play like crap the game would have been closer.” I think we can all agree. I also think the Chiefs playing like crap lends credibility to the argument “The Chiefs…still suck.”

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Dec 2, 2009 5:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No.

My premise is that we turned the ball over..and only once in a normal fashion. I can handle a fumble by charles

But a snap over the QB’s head? A fumble into the hands of a safety who runs for a TD? A pass off of a helmet into the hands of a CB? NONE of those things happen often, NONE have happened to the Chiefs at all this season, ALL happened on the SAME DAY!

by Petey14 on Dec 2, 2009 5:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And all by the same sucky team

lol

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Dec 2, 2009 5:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

All three of those were errors committed by the Chiefs not bad things that happened to them that were outside their control.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Dec 2, 2009 5:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

What I meant to say was that they DID improve, but they still suck.

Like they were really sucky and now they are just regular sucky.

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 2, 2009 5:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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