Stat of the Day: Grading the San Diego Chargers Offensive Line
About a week ago, somebody in the comments here (and forgive me for forgetting who it was) pointed me in the direction of a former HS football coach who was grading Chargers offensive linemen on every single play to give everyone a good idea of who was playing well and who wasn't. He was posting his findings on Facebook and the Chargers.com forums, but not here.
I reached out to him, to see if I could convince him to post his stuff here as well. Seeing as how most of us are stat-geeks, I assured him there'd be an audience for it. I finally got my response yesterday, in the form of an awesome spreadsheet. Go ahead and click on that link. It should open up the spreadsheet, which shows Paul's grades on every play for the Chargers games played in Weeks 1, 2, 3 and 8.
Looking just at last week's game against Oakland would probably be the best way to gauge where the San Diego offensive line is at. Louis Vasquez and Scott Mruczkowski have had enough time that their mistakes should be behind them, the line has been healthy enough for the past few weeks that they should have started to gel. So here's how they ranked against the Raiders:
- Marcus McNeill - 1.8482
- Louis Vasquez - 1.8482
- Kris Dielman - 1.8035
- Jeromey Clary - 1.7946
- Scott Mruczkowski - 1.7678
Did that surprise anybody? Me neither. McNeill and Vasquez have both been playing solid football all season (when healthy). Dielman is definitely not playing at a Pro Bowl level. Clary has been good, but not great. Mooch has shown himself to be an okay backup, but not a potential starter.
Looking back at the Week 1 game in Oakland, the highest rated offensive lineman by far was Nick Hardwick. Hopefully he can get back this week and be the piece that gets the offensive line back to being dominating.
I know these stats are somewhat arbitrary. Somebody's opinion rather than official statistics. However, when it comes to offensive linemen this is really all we have. I think Paul has done an excellent job breaking down these games (you can get lost in that spreadsheet of his), and I look forward to seeing what he brings to the table in the future.
One stat I noticed, while perusing the stats for these four games, is how far the offensive balance has come. In the first 3 games of the season, the closest the Chargers got to "balance" was when they threw only 11 times more than they ran it against the Dolphins. In the Week 8 game against the Raiders, Norv called 28 runs to go with the 28 passes. How's that for balance?
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Comments
Seems very professional to me
I’ve been reviewing the plays and the grades, and they concur very well. All those A-gap runs when LT gets stuffed shows the center lineman with fail or fair grades. The Plays where lots of yardage gets picked up, its a full grade. That shows that the problem with the running game isn’t Tomlinson, but poor line play. AJ Smith needs to hire a line coach. That, or Turner needs to make run blocking a key aspect of practice. Its also amazing how well Rivers plays under pressure. Lots of Fail marks on linemen on blocking, yet yards get picked up. Rivers has proven to be an elite QB.
by Superduperboltman on Nov 5, 2009 5:44 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
It’s not AJ Smith’s job to hire position coaches, that’s Norv’s job. Hal Hunter has been the O-line coach for the Chargers since 2006.
LT needs to be replaced. Even if a huge hole is made for him, the best he’s probably going to get is 10-15 yards. He used to be just fast enough to outrun the guys in the opposing secondary, and now he’s too slow to do that. Successful running games are ones that turn those 5-10 yard runs into long TDs at least once a game. Without it being a big-play threat, the defense doesn’t need to focus on it as much.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Nov 5, 2009 5:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Replace LT???
Thats too much. The only time he’s had a huge hole, he ran for 36. First lets see if he gets good blocking and makes the most of it. If its not the case, then we can talk about replacing our HOF runner. But for now, I think LT just needs a few more games to get into his groove. Remember how well he was running towards the end of last year (for the most part). It was when the line started stepping up. I haven’t lost my faith in Tomlinson yet. If you have, then I’m dissappointed. I can’t push him out the door when he isn’t in the room.
by Superduperboltman on Nov 5, 2009 1:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Opinion?
This gets used quite a bit, and to a degree it’s fair. However, must we limit ourselves to the objective, yet often arbitrary “yards” statistic? While the “fact” of yards gained may be true, the “opinion” of what created those yards is more subjective than grades.
On pass plays, I am probably using a little more induction and speculation (some, not a lot). However, let me be clear: On 95% of these run plays, I am 99% certain that the assignments I’ve designated are correct. Iso is Iso. Power is Power. Sweep is Sweep. It’s not hard, if you have the background, to know assignments. Grading than leaves the realm of opinion and subjectivity, and becomes objective “fact”.
The other key is that the grader stay consistent. So while I may lean to the homer side, so long as I grade consistently from one week to the next, we still have comparable information.
One final not concerning Dielman. His grades are going to be lower, even when he plays well (as he did against the Raiders). His “degree of difficulty”, especially in the run game, is higher. To be fair, McNeil is asked to do the most in the pass game, so there is some balancing out, but run blocking is more difficult than pass blocking.
When all else fails....
run Iso!
by pacstud on Nov 5, 2009 6:29 AM PST reply actions 4 recs
More detailed play-by-play comments on facebook
http://www.facebook.com/board.php?uid=122650323586
The spreadsheet just has number grades for each position on each play. But Paul also posts comments for each play. It’s really cool to read the comments while going back and watching the plays because you start noticing things you’ve never seen before.
Highly recommended.
by cowbell on Nov 5, 2009 7:27 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I'll save ya the trouble
As much as it strokes my ego to get the Facebook group # up, I’ve made a fan post with my breakdown. I even added some pics. I’m about to start some analysis of my own, and will post that here as well.
When all else fails....
run Iso!
by pacstud on Nov 5, 2009 7:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sweet. BFTB is going to turn out as one of the premire Chargers and football blogs on the net.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue ::This spot currently available for lease::
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 5, 2009 9:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s not already?
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Nov 5, 2009 10:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This put it over the top?
The straw that broke the camel’s back, as it were so.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue ::This spot currently available for lease::
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 5, 2009 11:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
only on the net?
how about all media?
by $#%@ eli and his daddy on Nov 6, 2009 8:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks pacstud
I’ve been following some of your analysis. I post a bit with Shamrock, who I’m pretty certain you know. Good stuff. I like that you openly admit to being something of a Clary homer – I’m not, but both insights help me to balance my critique of his play. While I don’t think that he’ll ever be more than serviceable due to his lack of foot speed, I can’t bash him but so much as the full effort that he gives helps to make up for physical shortcomings.
I’m reluctant to see Hardwick back this week – concerned that he’s not as fully healed as he needs to be. I recall what happened with his play last year when returning from the foot injury. With cohesion being such an integral part of an OL, can we expect a rusty Hardwick at 80-90% to be preferable to Mruc, particularly when this game is more likely to be won via our air attack than the run game?
Very happy to see the grades on Vasquez. He’s a beast & should only continue to improve. Hadn’t really considered what you had to say re: Dielman – like many others, I’ve been wondering about a “hidden” injury. I still believe that we need to spend a 1st day pick on a better RT this year – your thoughts?
As for LT – the performance of the OL is partially to blame, but no one can truthfully deny that he doesn’t have the same burst to & through the hole that he once had. I hate to admit it as well, but there it is. RB has to be on the draft list this year, although I’m not a guy who promotes using a day one pick at that position unless you’re flush with day one picks or there’s an undeniable elite talent available (Jahvid Best, anyone?). My preference is to see AJ concentrate on the trenches – NT if we stay 3-4 & upgrade at RT.
Gonna stop by your Facebook page.
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Nov 5, 2009 7:57 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Lots to address
1. Agree about Clary and his footspeed. He will never be ProBowl, but you can’t measure the effort and work ethic of this guy. That should not be discounted. Also, his rate of improvement is very high. This could bode well, if not at tackle then maybe at guard?
2. Hardwick is a tough call. I don’t mind bringing him back this week as the Giants run an even front, which means he’ll be uncovered a lot (as opposed to an odd front with a nose). MCow has been “admirable” which translates into “not very good”. He tries and actually shows a lot of promise, but it’s akin to VMart on the D-Line: We may be asking too much. I think Hardwick at 80% is better.
3. Dielman looked really good against the Raiders. His technique is coming back to form. The injury thing? Well, who DOESN’T have an injury of some sort? Whatever it is, we just need to hope he continues to improve.
4. I’ve said all along that I believe RT is a luxury pick until we address: D-Line, RB, ILB, and S (Ellison? Oliver?). Now, we may have some of those guys on board already, but until these needs are met I prefer to stay with Clary and maybe use a late rounder and spin the wheel.
When all else fails....
run Iso!
by pacstud on Nov 5, 2009 8:30 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Agree about Clary and his footspeed. He will never be ProBowl, but you can’t measure the effort and work ethic of this guy. That should not be discounted. Also, his rate of improvement is very high. This could bode well, if not at tackle then maybe at guard?
I’m a bit of a Clary fan myself. You’d probably like this piece I wrote in March. I agree with everything you said about him, and there’s actually been some discussion here about maybe flip-flopping him and Vasquez in the offseason. Vasquez seems to have a bigger reach and better footwork. What’s your thought on that? I doubt it would happen, but do you think it would work?
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Nov 5, 2009 10:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
FB
Overall do you find Hester or Tolbert doing the better job. Also we used to run better left than right, now it seems like we can’t run consistently at all to either side. Do you think Dielman and McNeil declined in run blocking?
"Football is a physical sport, sometimes you have a disagreement on what's going on, and you have a discussion about it." Kris Dielman
by Brian (DaBolts) on Nov 5, 2009 10:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This is from pacstud's
post over at Chargers.com
This next part is critical: TOLBERT needs to be our F-back. He is better, and to a point that’s clear. Hester is still a player, but let him drop some weight and move back to tailback. He can still come in on passing downs and play as a flex player, but Tolbert’s the guy. Tolbert missed one or two, but hit many and boy does he hit. His technique is still raw but he brought some punch.
by Natrone Bomb on Nov 5, 2009 3:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely
I’ve been saying this about Tolbert & Hester all along. Trying to fit Hester into the FB slot is a waste of talent, as is not playing Tolbert there as much as possible. It will benefit LT quite a bit to establish some rapport with & confidence in Tolbert. that only comes through reps.
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Nov 5, 2009 6:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry to be a nag, pacstud....
You’ve already gone above and beyond the call of duty with your analysis and answers, but I would like to know your thoughts on the above questions (switching Clary and Vasquez; and Hester vs. Tolbert at FB).
by Andy (allfield) on Nov 5, 2009 2:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
clary and vasquez switch?
Here’s my opinion, with the caveat that I’ll probably change my mind.
Keep it as is.
Here’s why: Vasquez is a LONG term solution at guard. He started pulling much better against the Raiders, and that will only continue to improve. With the Dart play in, we can also pull with Clary or McNeil. While I stand by my thought that replacing Clary is a luxury, we would ideally replace him after ’10 (unless we make a move before next year). Possibly waiting until ’11 if his replacement is too raw. All this leads me to want to stand pat at the very least until the end of the year.
Hope that helps.
When all else fails....
run Iso!
by pacstud on Nov 5, 2009 3:44 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes it does
And I keep coming back to the point, in my own mind at least, that what’s really missing on this team is solid scouting. Come back, Buddy Nix…….
by Andy (allfield) on Nov 5, 2009 3:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
One more question
Do you think that Hudson Houck should be brought back if we could snag him? I liked what he brought to the OL coaching position a lot.
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Nov 5, 2009 8:01 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
lol
Good luck with that. I’d offer other people’s first born children for HH.
I love Gibbs (who may be available this off-season), but I don’t see Norv going to a zone scheme full time.
When all else fails....
run Iso!
by pacstud on Nov 5, 2009 8:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah ... it's a recurring dream that I have ....
Why in hell did we let him get away? :-(
What Gibbs are you speaking of?
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Nov 5, 2009 8:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously....
Houck is never coming back. Wish he would though.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Nov 5, 2009 10:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice scoring system, but…
I think the roll up data treatment is not quite right. The scoring system (0 to 2 on .5 increments) is ordinal level data; average is not valid for this type of data. At best we should be looking at something like median with this data type.
But as I think about the scoring system, it seems that ideally you’d want each player to score 2’s on every play. What do you think about portion of plays less than 2? Say the left guard had 35 plays and 7 of those were less than 2 – a proportion of 7/35 or 20%. This transforms the data at least from ordinal discrete to ordinal continuous, which give us access to some tools.
You could also do proportion of plays with 0 to get an idea about who is totally whiffing out there.
With these transform metrics we could then compare players’ results by a Chi^2 or Fisher Exact test to determine if one player is playing better at a statistically significant level.
Very cool evaluation! I wonder if there are defined rules for scoring. I also wonder if another Coach looking at the same plays would arrive at similar scores.
by Trendsearcher on Nov 5, 2009 8:52 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
My brain just melted
I’m a history teacher and a football coach, not a rocket scientist, lol.
This basic system was created by Milt Tenopir, who won 5 National Titles with the University of Nebraska as their offensive line coach. He also penned the book The Assembly Line which is a must-read for O-line students. The 2 points system looks strictly at the block itself, and not the result of the play. It is not an end all measurement of a player, as per statistical analysis, but rather a crude and basic measurement to compare a player AGAINST HIMSELF. So that from one week to then next, whether looking at overall, pass pro, playside run, backside run…we can look for positive or negative change.
There are defined rules for scoring, and I use Tenopir’s rules. However, one could apply any rubric they see fit. As mentioned, the key is that the evaluator stay consistent throughout the season. While no one is perfect in their grading, I feel (especially after listening to some “experts”) that this evaluation is as close to the real thing as one can expect.
If you want the greatest flaw in this system, it is that degree of difficulty is not factored. Blocking Richard Seymour week 1 would have scored a higher DoD that Week 8. Dielman pulling on 26 Power is far more difficult than MCow having no one to block on a 50 Pro. All this leads to the basic flaw of “stats”, and why coaches don’t really use them other than to motivate and encourage players: They are USELESS, lol.
Film and analysis is the only worthwhile measurement. For that, I encourage use of my detailed breakdown combined with film. This is FAR more telling than the numbers.
Of course I do realize we all love playing with numbers, so that’s why I create the spreadsheet.
When all else fails....
run Iso!
by pacstud on Nov 5, 2009 9:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My brain just melted
same here…anyone wanna know how to build a house?
"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."
...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs
by notorioushbi on Nov 5, 2009 9:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
oops
"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."
...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs
by notorioushbi on Nov 5, 2009 9:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s called simple division guys!!
I’m a history teacher and a football coach, not a rocket scientist
LOL,.. Sorry about that I didn’t mean to over complicate it. It is a really cool system, just trying to find a better way to roll it up. We could add some complexity in to it though… you’ve mentioned two big factors: What do you think about adding factors to the score?
- Opposing defender (and presumably things get easier if you get some help from the guy next to you) It might not be that hard to rate a defender (say 5 to 10) and then cut that in half if defender ends up getting doubled on the play or ¾ if he gets chipped.
- Positional duties within the scheme (ie pulling guard having more chance of failure than the stationary lineman.) And you could decide on a difficulty factor for each position in each play type (say rated on a 1 to 4 scale).
We could then combine these into more complete metric; (but we would have to do some multiplication – look out there is math ahead!)
(play score)x(difficulty rating)x(defender modifier)
Now we are talking! This starts to look a heck of a lot like a rating system, similar to the QB rating. We start to get a single number to describe performance.
by Trendsearcher on Nov 5, 2009 9:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Love it!
I think this is a great idea, really. I’d love to take this “applicable” formula (this is all a coach needs) and apply it to the fans (fair and accurate, lol).
I would definitely need some help though. Always looking for Excel Geeks to help me out.
Volunteers?
When all else fails....
run Iso!
by pacstud on Nov 5, 2009 10:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Trendsearcher owes it to us to prove this formula wouldn’t create a blackhole on Earth.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Nov 5, 2009 10:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll send something over
I’d love to take this "applicable" formula (this is all a coach needs) and apply it to the fans
Sure I can help with the math and Excel. I’ll expand on your template and e-mail it over. If you wouldn’t mind considering a few more questions about the play we could arrive at something more powerful.
Maybe the simple score is enough for the Coach, but like you said the coach has the "eye" to temper the results based on the assignment and the opposition. For a coach… On any given play… tempering like this is not a problem. String together a whole game and the process becomes a little arbitrary.
By doing something like this we begin to get a metric that illustrates performance in a number of ways;
Performance on specific types of plays
Performance in given situations (ie solo blocking vs. assisted)
Performance within a game
Performance between games (with differing opponents)
All that stuff seems like it might be useful for a coach. And being more objective and reducing the subjectivity it seems like it might be more useful to the player too. And a quantitative performance metric would be really useful to the talent evaluator. Wouldn’t it be so much better to be able to rate guys based on their playing ability rather than their 40 times?
by Trendsearcher on Nov 5, 2009 11:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
once again...
you just blew my mind
"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."
...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs
by notorioushbi on Nov 5, 2009 11:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes and yes
Now, actually making this happen?
Let me know how I can help.
When all else fails....
run Iso!
by pacstud on Nov 5, 2009 12:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
One other thing
Pacstud pointed out a deficiency in the level of competition; but I don’t really see how this can grade a linemen assignment. Guards and Centers especially, have assignments, the center gets low grade with the spreadsheet but how many times did a guard not move onto his target or how many times a tightend released or someone picked up the wrong linebacker….
In the end I think only the line coach will truly know
by bo_shilo on Nov 5, 2009 9:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
having played line...
it’s pretty easy to see who missed the assignments and blitz pickups on most plays, but i’ll agree it at least takes someone familiar to the position to evaluate performance. what if you were to factor in the defenses faced in the same sort of way…how many men are in the box, how many blitzers, all sorts of variables trendsearcher can blow my mind with
"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."
...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs
by notorioushbi on Nov 5, 2009 9:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Median and Mode would be better...
…and easy to incorporate in PS’s spreadsheets.
by FCBolt82 on Nov 8, 2009 9:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nope, I was wrong...
…about that.
Just got pacstud’s spreadsheet and started calculating median and mode.
They are each 2 for every player in every game—should have seen that coming.
Not very informative.
I guess mean IS the best way to go.
by FCBolt82 on Nov 10, 2009 10:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Assignments
On run assignments, as I said, we can get close to 100% accuracy. If we were a zone team, it would be slightly more difficult, but even then zone rules are generally universal. The only man scheme assignment that has “flexible” rules is pullers. Sometimes you have specific lanes (rare, if ever in pros or upper levels), but usually you have a “first window” rule.
Pass stuff I’ll give you, but even that’s only in relation to the backs. As far as assignments go, I’m guessing Coach Hunter would say this is 95% accurate at worst.
When all else fails....
run Iso!
by pacstud on Nov 5, 2009 10:02 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I feel like you’ve made BFTB instantly more intelligent.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Nov 5, 2009 10:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This is outstanding...
One question. If you’re going to post here on a regular basis, can you add something for defining your grading system? Also, I went to the Facebook link and read some of the comments, they really helped me understand what was happening. Anything you can do to help me learn more about the game is welcome here. Please keep posting.
"As a confirmed melancholic, I can testify that the best and maybe only antidote for melancholia is *action*. However, like most melancholics, I suffer also from sloth." - Edward Abbey.
by Jeff (sliderockmpc) on Nov 5, 2009 10:41 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Working on terminology guide
As we speak. Let these students learn their own dang history, lol.
When all else fails....
run Iso!
by pacstud on Nov 5, 2009 10:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice!
History is worthless anyways! (Just kidding. That’s something I used to tell my friend, who got a degree in American History and now works for the US Army with an awesome job.)
Seriously though, my 9th grade History teacher had a son on the Jets. I learned way more about football than history that year.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Nov 5, 2009 11:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Winners write history while losers ARE history....history is for suckers yeah!!!
HUSTLE MADE ENT. NEW TRACK...CHECK FOR IT...NOTHING BUT THAT KILLA CALI FIRE FO SHO!!! http://www.myspace.com/jayoh1ne
by Gorditoe1 on Nov 5, 2009 2:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
is sliderock a reference to AZ?
"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."
...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs
by notorioushbi on Nov 5, 2009 11:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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