Stat(s) of the Day: Philip Rivers vs. Eli Manning

by John Gennaro on Nov 4, 2009 4:05 AM PST in Statistics Comment 38 comments

Luckily for us, this game is not in primetime and is very important for both teams. Because of that, the Philip Rivers vs. Eli Manning storyline isn't getting as much attention as it normally would. Chargers fans are more concerned with a victory, which is desperately needed, and Giants fans are more concerned with Eli's health. Still, there's a way in which the QB conversation can be had in the context of this game and I'd like to do it.

		Passing									Rushing					Sacks
	G	Rating	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	INT	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Sack	YdsL
2009 - Philip Rivers	7	95.9	142	238	59.7	2036	290.9	8.6	11	4	14	32	4.6	2.3	1	16	102

		Passing									Rushing					Sacks
	G	Rating	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	INT	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Sack	YdsL
2009 - Eli Manning	8	86.4	140	242	57.9	1855	231.9	7.7	13	8	10	40	5	4	0	8	55

It's not difficult to argue that Philip is having the better season. He has about as many TDs (12 to Manning's 13) with half as many interceptions and a higher completion rating. These stats were also mostly attained under duress, evidence by the 16 times Rivers has been sacked in comparison to Manning's 8. That doesn't tell the whole story though.

Eli Manning injured his foot in a week 4 matchup against the Chiefs. The following week, it seemed all was fine as he destroyed the Raiders (8-for-10, 173 yards, 2 TDs). The three weeks since, however, have shown that Manning is struggling to be an effective QB because he's not comfortable planting on to that injured foot while throwing.

On the flip side, Philip Rivers has stayed healthy and consistent throughout the season. The last three weeks have resulted in 2 wins and 3 of Rivers' 4 best games of the season. So if we compare how the QBs have been doing over the last three weeks, it probably won't be pretty.......

Week 6-8:

Rivers - 61.3% comp., 791 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT, 6 Sacks, 104.8 QB Rating

Manning - 49.5% comp., 643 yards, 3 TD, 6 INT, 6 Sacks, 54.3 QB Rating

Okay, so everybody saw that coming. Also, before Giants fans start screaming about competition, here come more unsurprising stats about the last 3 weeks.

Week 6-8 Competition (Pass Defense DVOA):

Rivers - Broncos (6th), Chiefs (26th), Raiders (18th)

Manning - Saints (1st), Cardinals (13th), Eagles (2nd)

Now we'll start tearing down Rivers and Manning's stats. Rivers' stats look great for a 3 game stretch, but how much of that was beating up on KC? Let's see what happens when we take out that game....

62% comp., 523 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 6 Sacks, 95.6 QB Rating

Not bad, but the TD/INT numbers are less impressive and the 6 sacks are more striking over two games. I don't doubt Rivers will be fine against the Giants, but the team will need TDs to win and not just FGs.

Here's the most telling stat when looking at Eli's last 3 games. Watch this.....

@NO: 1 INT, 1 Sack
ARI: 3 INT, 3 Sacks
@PHI: 2 INT, 2 Sacks

Ron Rivera, you should probably make a note of that. The more sacks (and pressure) you can get on Eli Manning, the more turnovers he'll create. Keep those Safety blitzes and Corner blitzes coming!

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we are most concerned with

EVERYTHING that has to do with the Giants. The whole team has imploded, and none of it has been very good the last three weeks. Eli’s health ties into the offensive equation, but it has nothing to do with a supposedly great defense getting torched, or special teams giving up big returns/bad punts.

by brisulph on Nov 4, 2009 4:49 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Unfortunately

the Chargers have a history of being an opponent that struggling teams get better against. This situation, going into the Giants game, reminds me very much of the Steelers game earlier this season (they had lost 2 straight before destroying the Chargers).

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Nov 4, 2009 5:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

This is kind of where I am.

I’m not encouraged by the passing in the 2nd half of the Oakland game: the Chargers need to get on a roll quickly. I don’t think either team can come back to win this one if there’s a big point-spread at the half.

by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Nov 4, 2009 12:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Thinking about it

this may be more of a Ravens-game redux than Pittsburgh.

We're boned.

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 4, 2009 1:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue ::This spot currently available for lease::
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 4, 2009 5:37 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Make Manning Beat you..

To paraphrase what you wrote to me earlier…“put the Giants into a hole and make Manning beat you, Take Jacobs and Bradshaw out of the equation.” If you can get ahead on the Giants Early, it makes Manning Panic. I have noticed that the play caller panics when the Giants are down 14. He gives up the run calls.

by Blueblood27 on Nov 4, 2009 8:22 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

This made me laugh

“Take Jacobs and Bradshaw out of the equation”

That is classic. Hilarious.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 4, 2009 10:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

but...

If we can limit them to 150 or less total rushing then manning still has to step up…I think this game could go well if we win the turnover and penalty battle

"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."

...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs

by notorioushbi on Nov 4, 2009 10:20 AM PST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

I think he meant take them out by getting up early. I sincerely doubt anyone thinks we can disrupt their running game with our defense.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 4, 2009 10:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps he was saying we should try to break more of their bones with hopes that they eventually are too injured to play?

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Nov 4, 2009 10:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

a win is a win

"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."

...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs

by notorioushbi on Nov 4, 2009 11:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I’d be good with that.

by Richard Wade on Nov 4, 2009 12:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Manning's Foot

Has to be really jacked up… like off-season surgery jacked up. Manning could have beat the Raiders in crutches, but since then he’s looked oh so bad. We’ve got to get after him!

by Jonny Dub on Nov 4, 2009 8:37 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

It’s worth noting that Manning had a much better game against the Raiders than Rivers.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Nov 4, 2009 8:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

This may not be true

but from my recollection, Philip never really lights the world on fire against the Raiders. He usually saves his best divisional games for the Broncos.

We're boned.

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 4, 2009 9:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

DE

Giants fan here. Pressuring Manning is always a great tactic, but its made even more effective recently by our O-Line playing poorly thus far. The key to you guys winning this game is having a good DE match up against our RG Kareem McKenzie who has been getting beat for the big plays. Its so bad that the Giants are pretty much signaling a play action pass everytime someone runs over to McKenzie’s side. I’m afriad I don’t pay much attention to the Chargers, so could you enlighten me on how effective your ends are? Truth be told, I’m pessimistic going into this game. I believe the Chargers will win, and my boys will head into our much needed bye week just one win over .500.

Should be a good game either way though.

by RolloT on Nov 4, 2009 11:45 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

The DE lined up strong side (to the right of the quarterback)

is Luis Castillo.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 4, 2009 11:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Although

The depth chart lists McKenzie as a RT (Coughlin son-in-law and pro bowler Chris Snee is the RG). The OLB attacking that part of the field is usually Shaun Phillips.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 4, 2009 11:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

Great to hear that Shaun may have a chance to get to Eli, since he’s so hot already. Chiefs and Raiders aside, 4 sacks in 2 weeks in the NFL is impressive.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Nov 4, 2009 11:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If it's true that the right side of their line has been struggling

then I like Castillo in that match-up, considering how good he’s been this year. Would also be nice for S&S to get going this week as well.

We're boned.

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 4, 2009 12:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Like I mention though

Castillo will mainly be against 2008 Pro Bowler Chris Snee. I don’t see that as a good matchup. McKenzie has been battling some injuries, but I think he may be recovered now. His backup William Beatty struggled when they tried to rest McKenzie.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 4, 2009 12:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Oops

My mistake. You’re right, it’s the Tackle, not the Guard. I chalk that up to brain fart.

by RolloT on Nov 4, 2009 1:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the pessimism goes both ways.

Reasons to like the Giants:
The Chargers have no answer for Brandon Jacobs. The Chargers don’t trust their OL and Canty is back on the field. Giants have home field.

Reasons to like the Chargers:
The Giants have no answer for Vincent Jackson. The Giants don’t trust their OL and Merriman is back at/near full strength. It’s a late game.

Chargers on the spread, but that’s just ‘cause they’re the dog. I say it’s a pick-em.

by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Nov 4, 2009 12:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Oops... forgot.

The Chargers can’t reliably run on the Giants.

The Giants can’t reliably throw on the Chargers.

by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Nov 4, 2009 12:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Quibbles

That first sentence could just have the “on the Giants” part removed.

The second doesn’t seem right. Who knows if the Chargers will be able to pressure Manning and the Giants have a number of good options in the passing game that can probably find the holes in the Chargers coverage (just like the Steelers did).

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 4, 2009 12:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Anybody can unreliably run on the Giants. They’re tough up the middle but their subpar secondary means that any run that hits the second level can jack up a team’s YPC. This is as true of a team like the Chargers as it is of a team that actually runs well.

Likewise, the Chargers can unreliably stop anybody in the air. They have big, physical cornerbacks and (suddenly) decent safeties, plus a pass rush that, when it works, is pretty dangerous. Similarly, the Giants, with an injured QB, may struggle against any opponent if forced to take to the air.

My prediction is that the Giants are too good at protecting their leads for even a comeback team like San Diego to recover from a 2-score deficit, and not good enough in the air to come back on a team with an aggressive passing game and average-or-better passing D. If San Diego can build a lead, they can threaten to run even if it’s not working, and it could turn into an ugly air-raid. If New York can build a lead, they can take the run away and focus on pressure while the offense controls the game through running.

by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Nov 4, 2009 1:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ha ha

Chargers…chuckle…. running backs … snicker …. hit the second level… ha ha ha ha ha!

Oh man. I think pulled a muscle.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 4, 2009 1:15 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

Sproles occasionally gets there.

We're boned.

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 4, 2009 1:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Running on the Giants

Running on the Giants isn’t hard. I hate to admit it, but we’re awful against the run this year. We gave the Cardinals a running game. If we can give the Cardinals a running game, we can give anyone a running game. That is, however, dependent on Boley and Canty. We picked up the former pretty much for his run stopping ability, and Boley is our most atheltic line backer, so if both play then that could change. However I’m rather pessimistic about either playing. We’ll see who suits up on game day.

by RolloT on Nov 4, 2009 1:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but we can't run consistently on anyone.

We do have the RB elusiveness, but I think you’ll mostly see that come into play on screens. If Canty isn’t able to come back, or if he’s limited as a rusher, the Giants might have trouble getting pressure. Since their secondary sucks, something could give. So it’s possible the Giants will struggle to contain LT and Sproles, but if so it’ll be a symptom of a SD win and not a cause.

by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Nov 4, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs