Game Preview: Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers
by John (obviousman) on Nov 27, 2009 12:25 PM PST
41 comments
Let me start off this game preview by saying thank you, Arrowhead Pride commentors, for being nicer and more understanding this time around. Like with any community, there are a few bad seeds that got to me last time but managed to stay away for the most part this time. The rest of those guys are pretty awesome.
Now, with that being said, I hope any Chiefs fan can forgive me. I am about to be very confident about the Chargers chances this week. Although it's not without reason.
When the Chiefs Have the Ball
Have the Chiefs improved since the Chargers game in Kansas City? I guess. Matt Cassel has yet to look very impressive, and the loss of Dwayne Bowe almost offsets the resurgence of Chris Chambers. Let's look at their rankings and see if anything stands out.
- 30th in Yards Per Game, 30th in Yards Per Play
- 26th in Points Per Game
- 32nd in 3rd Down Conversion %
- 9th in Turnover Margin
Well, that seems obvious. This is a bad offense. Their wins have mostly come off of their defense, which has done a decent job of forcing turnovers. Let's look at some more offensive rankings for KC.
- 26th in Passing Yards Per Game, 25th is Passying Yards Per Attempt
- 20th in Passing Plays of 20+ Yards
- 25th in Rushing Yards Per Game, 30th in Rushing Yards Per Carry
- 30th in Rushing Plays of 20+ Yards
There is nothing about this Chiefs offense that leads me to believe the Chargers will have trouble stopping them or significantly slowing them down. Improved record or not, the Chiefs offense is still a very good matchup for the Bolts' D and will have a hard time consistently moving the ball on the ground or through the air.
via www4.pictures.gi.zimbio.com
The Chargers defense has seemingly gotten better every week of the season. That makes sense when you look at Ron Rivera's track record (successful) and realize this was his first season with a new defense. It took him time to figure out how he wanted to call the plays, and it took time to find the right mixture of personnel as well. To me it seems like they have it, and they continue to climb in the rankings.
- 14th in Yards Allowed Per Game, 15th in Points Allowed Per Game
- 23rd Lowest 3rd Down Conversion % Allowed
- 11th in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game, 17th in Passing Yards Allowed Per Attempt
- 5th in Least Number of 20+ Yard Pass Plays Allowed
- 8th in Sacks
- 21st in Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game, 12th in Rushing Yards Allowed Per Carry
- 1st in Least Number of 20+ Yard Running Plays Allowed
So, looking at that, the Chargers have a good defense that brings a very good pass rush and completely eliminates any big plays by the opposing offense. Is it the dominating defense that everyone would like to have? Not really, but it's a consistent defense that doesn't lose the game and capitalizes on turnover opportunities. Sometimes, that's better than the dominating defense.
When the Chargers Have the Ball
via a.espncdn.com
The Chargers have a good offense. When the run-game is working, it's one of the best offenses in the league. We know this, but let's go to the rankings anyways.
- 16th in Yards Per Game, 12th in Yards Per Play
- 5th in Points Per Game
- 12th in 3rd Down Conversion %
- 7th in Turnover Margin
The two issues this offense had earlier in the season was consistency (scoring mostly on big plays instead of long drives) and a weak running game. Since the benching and eventual departure of Chris Chambers, the consistency has been there. In the past two weeks, because of LaDainian Tomlinson and Mike Tolbert, the running game has gotten significantly better. This is an offense that is currently playing flawless football. More rankings....
- 10th in Passing Yards Per Game, 3rd is Passing Yards Per Attempt
- 8th in Passing Plays of 20+ Yards
- 29th in Rushing Yards Per Game, 31st in Rushing Yards Per Carry
- 20th in Rushing Plays of 20+ Yards
via www.mkrob.com
Obviously, with an offense that hasn't done much, the defense is the key to the 2009 Kansas City Chiefs. So, how does their defense stack up?
- 30th in Yards Allowed Per Game, 25th in Points Allowed Per Game
- 14th Lowest 3rd Down Conversion % Allowed
- 28th in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game, 26th in Passing Yards Allowed Per Attempt
- 18th in Least Number of 20+ Yard Pass Plays Allowed
- 30th in Sacks
- 27th in Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game, 23rd in Rushing Yards Allowed Per Carry
- 22nd in Least Number of 20+ Yard Running Plays Allowed
The Chiefs have scored more than 20 points in only 40% of their games, and in each of those matchups they've won the turnover battle. So as long as the Chargers don't throw interceptions and/or fumble the ball, they have a very good chance of winning the game. Considering the Bolts take care of the ball better than any other NFL team (less than one turnover per game in 2009 and 2008), it's hard for me to see them giving up the ball or making big mistakes.
Talk with any intelligent Bolts fan and he's going to tell you "Give Philip Rivers time and the Chargers are going to score a lot of points." Just as I said before the Week 7 match-up, I think the worst-case scenario for the Chargers in this game is that they get into a shootout. Considering they have a better offense, better defense and better QB....I'm fine with that.
It's true that the Chiefs are an improving team and one that could make some noise in 2010. However, until they add a few more pieces (like a 2nd WR or a good TE) they're not going to be able to compete with the Chargers team.
A quick story to end this post. You may have noticed I've been fairly absent from this community for the past few days. It's because I'm visiting family in Las Vegas and haven't had much access to a computer. On Wednesday night, my father and uncle placed a few bets on the Thanksgiving day games. Besides the Broncos game, both of the early games wound up being very close the the betting lines that were set. Las Vegas, and the oddsmakers, are not stupid. They know matchups and they know the teams inside out. I'd say about 90% of the time the score comes within 3 points of whatever the line was set as. The line for Sunday's game? Chargers by 13.5 points.
This is not a team that makes mistakes or overlooks weaker teams. When's the last time the Chargers lost to a team they should've beaten easily? I can't remember a loss like that since Norv Turner took over as Head Coach, and I don't expect one on Sunday.
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welcome to vegas john
next to san diego, the 2nd greatest place in the continental US, altho i miss home, vegas does have its perks
by $#%@ eli and his daddy on Nov 27, 2009 1:12 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
hey john
u are not a bad guy just in divison games we all care too much about our team and we do not want to face losses utail they happed and by the way SD should win the divison u couilid win out and get the 2 seed if u do you are the fav for the super bowl in the afc by the way next year i wouild have agree with u before the season on getting a running back in the draft but i think u need ot or cb first then rb in the second
okay i have cereal palsy arhrtis and chronic fatiue as well i have a grea life loveing folks some days are better that other days i got a make a wish in 2001 saw my favorive team the broncos was the trip of the lifetime i wish everyone couild gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that ok but i bleed organ and bule
by j-man on Nov 27, 2009 2:08 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
two things buddy
1. Read j-man’s signature
2. If you click on the reply button, your comment will appear indented as a response to the comment you wish to reply to.
"Get on board early," Black said, alluding to, what he feels, is a crop of up-and-coming players.
"I would tell those fans that we're going to play good baseball. We're going to play hard. We're going to have exciting young players..." -Bud Black
by The Kipper on Nov 27, 2009 4:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Only leaving this up because the replies are good.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Nov 28, 2009 1:39 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
My comment has nothing to do with football but,
What’s up with the “Obviousman” nickname? Like what’s it mean and where’d it come from? Just curious
by tonoxtono on Nov 27, 2009 5:54 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
John used to post as obviousman before he became the editor of this blog. When he did he added his real name, but left his old username in parentheses so that people would recognize that he was the same person.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Nov 27, 2009 10:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
John, good analysis of the entire season
I would like to color your opinion, a little, probably not change it, but explain why I am a little more optimistic about the Chiefs. Yes, the Chargers and Bengals are the toughest games left on the Chiefs schedule, and yes a KC win would be a huge upset. But, I ran across an excellent post at MHR – http://www.milehighreport.com/2009/11/25/1169189/the-dude-abides-the-stats-that#26141660
In reviewing the stats, there are some interesting things. The first thing is that one of the Chiefs fans biggest complaints is third down conversions. They have been abysmal to say the least. It’s been rationalized as, well, if you are in 3rd and 16 everytime, it’s hard to convert. Well, look what they did on third down against Pittsburgh:
40% – That’s incredible for KC this year!
More intersting stats from the post:
The key differences are that with LJ, on 3rd and 3, he was guaranteed to get two yards. With Charles in the backfield, on 3rd and 3, when he’s hit short, he fights to get the extra yard. KC usually doesn’t get things going until the 2nd half, and Chambers has been on fire in the 2nd half. Tamba Hali is finally starting to get some pressure on the QB. At times he looks like he could be a game changer, he has really played well, as of late.
I know, that’s probably not enough, but I hope you can see how some of us expect a good game this time.
"The way this works is you string together some good games, some good practices and you get momentum and you gain confidence," linebacker Mike Vrabel said. "It can be a real positive for your team. It builds on itself."
by cpa913 on Nov 27, 2009 7:29 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Those pics bring back some awesome memories!!!
"The way this works is you string together some good games, some good practices and you get momentum and you gain confidence," linebacker Mike Vrabel said. "It can be a real positive for your team. It builds on itself."
by cpa913 on Nov 27, 2009 7:41 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
gotta love the glory days :)
"Four goals in sixteen shots... I'm really tired of the...............25% rule." -John Tortorella
by esylvester6 on Nov 27, 2009 7:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
gotta ask though, why the profile pic you have when you don’t even follow hockey? not condescending, just curious. (I’m a diehard puck fan :) )
"Four goals in sixteen shots... I'm really tired of the...............25% rule." -John Tortorella
by esylvester6 on Nov 27, 2009 7:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm hoping for a hat trick
KC has won two in a row. I probably just jinxed it, Do’h!
"The way this works is you string together some good games, some good practices and you get momentum and you gain confidence," linebacker Mike Vrabel said. "It can be a real positive for your team. It builds on itself."
by cpa913 on Nov 27, 2009 8:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Creative!!!
As a long time Kansas City sympathizer (whole family is for KC), I hope you get it… after you lose to my Chargers on Sunday… :)
"Four goals in sixteen shots... I'm really tired of the...............25% rule." -John Tortorella
by esylvester6 on Nov 27, 2009 8:03 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd
Like I said, San Diego and Cincinnati are our toughest games left (if anyone can figure out which Denver team is likely to show up – we still have them twice)
"The way this works is you string together some good games, some good practices and you get momentum and you gain confidence," linebacker Mike Vrabel said. "It can be a real positive for your team. It builds on itself."
by cpa913 on Nov 27, 2009 8:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
aaah those Jekyll and Hyde Broncs
hope ya take em both. Always had a soft spot for the Chiefs :)
"Four goals in sixteen shots... I'm really tired of the...............25% rule." -John Tortorella
by esylvester6 on Nov 27, 2009 8:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Are they really that hard to predict?
Denver seems to play mostly the same game every week. Some teams can exploit their weaknesses and limit their strengths some teams can’t. Tackle well, pressure the QB, stop the run early (or at least hold your own and limit them to FGs), score early to force them to pass, and don’t give up special teams points. That’ll at least keep you close. Lots of teams have trouble with the “tackling well” part. The Cowboys and Patriots lost their game against them almost exclusively because of it. The Chargers lost because of the special teams play. I missed the 2nd half of the Giants game, but they seemed to have a problem with their overall game plan and the mile-highness.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
by Wonko on Nov 28, 2009 5:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And the Giants just don't seem to be a very good team this year.
Plus we got the luxury of being able to play the Broncos a second time and correct our mistakes. I’d be willing to bet that if the Cowboys and Patriots got a second crack at them (which the Pats might, depending on how playoff seeding ends up), the result would be quite different.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 28, 2009 11:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Giants traveled cross country on a short week to play at altitude.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Nov 29, 2009 5:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
At least this game is at home...
That should eliminate the Arrowhead shenanigans factor
Juju, you complete me...And now as your humble-as-ever servant, I kindly request the following:
So, how is it that one brother is named "James", and the next one "Jacquizz"?
Anyways, based on the picture; they look as if they have a relationship thats a little too comfortable.
by CaDuck on Nov 27, 2009 8:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
If by "shenanigans" you mean "better stand or you can't see the field", then yes it will.
Expect a lot of red in those bleachers. Chiefs fans are some of the most knowledgeable in the league (and best tailgate chefs) but the San Diego ones do nothing but carp about how much better Arrowhead is than the Q. (We agree. You can stop complaining, we did years ago.)
"Wipe that golden tear from your mother dear, and raise what's left of the flag for me."-- Flogging Molly, "What's Left Of The Flag"
Ali Villanueva (OT/WR, Army) has 460 yards and 5 TDs in only 7 games with a mediocre quarterback. Just sayin'...
by StrangeBroP25 on Nov 27, 2009 8:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I will always call it "the Murph"
Are you a vet? What’s up with your sig? Who is Ali Vallnueva? He’s an OT and a WR? I’d like to hear more!
"The way this works is you string together some good games, some good practices and you get momentum and you gain confidence," linebacker Mike Vrabel said. "It can be a real positive for your team. It builds on itself."
by cpa913 on Nov 27, 2009 8:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Haha, the Murph. Before my time...
I suppose you could call me a vet— I’ve held season tickets for 8 or 9 years now, since I was a little kid.
I cut my sig down a little bit recently. Ali Villanueva plays for Army; he’s a 6’10" former tackle who was converted to TE and then to WR (to make room for Army’s better TE). He’s projected as undrafted, but I would love a project player like him.
"Wipe that golden tear from your mother dear, and raise what's left of the flag for me."-- Flogging Molly, "What's Left Of The Flag"
Ali Villanueva (OT/WR, Army) has 460 yards and 5 TDs in only 7 games with a mediocre quarterback. Just sayin'...
by StrangeBroP25 on Nov 27, 2009 9:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thats's awesome...
I went to the KC – Dallas game at Arrowhead. The guy in the row in front of us must of weighed 350, and he didn’t sit down the entire game. F-ing Cowboys fan!!!!
So why do you follow Arny?
I’m a Navy guy myself.
"The way this works is you string together some good games, some good practices and you get momentum and you gain confidence," linebacker Mike Vrabel said. "It can be a real positive for your team. It builds on itself."
by cpa913 on Nov 27, 2009 9:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Eh, I just follow prospects.
"Wipe that golden tear from your mother dear, and raise what's left of the flag for me."-- Flogging Molly, "What's Left Of The Flag"
Ali Villanueva (OT/WR, Army) has 460 yards and 5 TDs in only 7 games with a mediocre quarterback. Just sayin'...
by StrangeBroP25 on Nov 27, 2009 9:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I went to the Chargers-Broncos monday night game and there was a guy about that size who sat a couple of seats away and every five minutes he would get up to get a beer and take a piss. I don’t know which team he was a fan of, but I wanted to kill him.
by tonoxtono on Nov 28, 2009 2:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I went to Point Loma Nazarene in 1988
Does the Boll Weavil still have the best burgers? I hear there is In-and-out-burger in San Diego now. What is the best part of SD these days? Pacific Beach? Coronado? TJ?
"The way this works is you string together some good games, some good practices and you get momentum and you gain confidence," linebacker Mike Vrabel said. "It can be a real positive for your team. It builds on itself."
by cpa913 on Nov 27, 2009 9:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know, to be honest. I live in Poway and don't get to the city much.
Our local Boll Weevil closed, it sucks. Nearest one is in Ramona.
"Wipe that golden tear from your mother dear, and raise what's left of the flag for me."-- Flogging Molly, "What's Left Of The Flag"
Ali Villanueva (OT/WR, Army) has 460 yards and 5 TDs in only 7 games with a mediocre quarterback. Just sayin'...
by StrangeBroP25 on Nov 27, 2009 9:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
theres one
right off the 15 on Clairemont Mesa blvd
by Mad_Villain on Nov 28, 2009 2:16 AM PST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
PB is filled with people not from SD, and far too many ed hardy t shirts
im a coronado fan…
oh and theres quite a few in and out burgers in sd…
"I suggest more bike" ~KSK
www.throughbucknerslegs.com
by justdave on Nov 28, 2009 2:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If you were a Nazbo
Then you should know where the best part of SD is; just go to the Nazbo cliffs, and travel north or south at low tide.
by AirNorval on Nov 28, 2009 10:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's been a long time
Ocean Beach used to be my favorite hangout!
"The way this works is you string together some good games, some good practices and you get momentum and you gain confidence," linebacker Mike Vrabel said. "It can be a real positive for your team. It builds on itself."
by cpa913 on Nov 29, 2009 6:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed on just about all points, John
Steve from Fantasy Daddy let me write up the game preview over there. Check it out, it won’t hurt
by matto619 on Nov 28, 2009 6:36 AM PST via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Fun write-up!
Maybe a little closer score, but you got the finer points right!
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Nov 28, 2009 9:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Can someone do a fanpost of their game experience?
I really liked the dialogue and pics from the Giants game. Can we get some volunteers to do the same?
"Live to love and love to live"!
by Desyrel on Nov 28, 2009 10:32 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
As far as the Chiefs are concerned they better not far behind early. The Chargers seem more than capable of scoring 30+, I suppose they’ll challenge KC to do the same
by AirNorval on Nov 28, 2009 6:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
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