Predicting the Score by the Numbers
by Steve (Grey Suit) on Nov 26, 2009 10:00 AM PST
in Statistics
9 comments
Well my predicted score was a bit off last week but at least I got the winner right this time, yay improvement! I think this week’s prediction looks a little more realistic. Happy Turkeyday everyone!
So far this season the Chiefs have scored 16.9 points per game and allowed 23.9 points per game thus far. The Chiefs opponents have scored 20.6 points and allowed 20.6 points per game on average thus far. If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Chiefs have scored 3.7 fewer points per game than the average and have allowed 3.3 more points per game than the average.
|
Points For |
Points Against |
|
|
Chiefs |
16.9 |
23.9 |
|
23.7 |
17.1 |
|
|
10.8 |
23.4 |
|
|
26.6 |
20.4 |
|
|
26.6 |
23.5 |
|
|
23.1 |
17.5 |
|
|
14.6 |
17.8 |
|
|
26.9 |
20.5 |
|
|
19.9 |
23.5 |
|
|
Raiders |
10.8 |
23.4 |
|
23.1 |
18.4 |
|
|
Average |
20.6 |
20.6 |
|
Adjustment |
-3.7 |
3.3 |
The Chargers have scored 26.9 points per game and allowed 20.5 points per game on average thus far, while their opponents up until this point have scored an average of 19.7points per game and allowed 21.1 points per game on average thus far. If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Chargers are scoring 5.8 more points per game than the average and are giving up 0.8 more points per game than the average.
|
Points For |
Points Against |
|
|
Chargers |
26.9 |
20.5 |
|
Raiders |
10.8 |
23.4 |
|
Ravens |
23.7 |
17.1 |
|
24.2 |
24.4 |
|
|
Steelers |
23.1 |
18.4 |
|
17 |
18.3 |
|
|
Chiefs |
16.9 |
23.9 |
|
Raiders |
10.8 |
23.4 |
|
Giants |
26.6 |
23.5 |
|
Eagles |
26.6 |
20.4 |
|
Broncos |
17 |
18.3 |
|
Average |
19.7 |
21.1 |
|
Adjustment |
5.8 |
0.8 |
If you take the numbers from above and apply them to this week's game you get the following:
Chargers
The Chargers score on average 26.9 points, the Chiefs allow 3.3 more points than average, Chargers should score 30.2 points
The Chargers allow on average 20.5 points, the Chiefs score on average 3.7 points less than average, Chargers should allow 16.8 points.
Chiefs
The Chiefs score on average 16.9 points, the Chargers allow 0.8 points more than average, the Chiefs should score 17.7 points.
The Chiefs allow on average 23.9 points , the Chargers score on average 5.8 points higher than average, the Chiefs should allow 29.7 points.
|
|
Points For |
Points Against |
|
Chargers |
30.2 |
16.9 |
|
Chiefs |
17.7 |
29.7 |
If we average the points scored and against together for each team you get the following score:
Chargers 30
Chiefs 17
Hmmm this prediction actually looks like it could be a bit closer than the last two I guess we shall see. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
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9 comments
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this score sounds about right
Go Chargers!!
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Nov 26, 2009 8:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Very good analysis
I would just add that the Chiefs score 5 more points per game without 2.7 (Larry Johnson), so, by the numbers rated on the post LJ era would be more like Chargers 30, Chiefs 22. Very interesting game coming up!
"The way this works is you string together some good games, some good practices and you get momentum and you gain confidence," linebacker Mike Vrabel said. "It can be a real positive for your team. It builds on itself."
by cpa913 on Nov 26, 2009 9:29 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Should be a close one
I doubt we overlook the chiefs with Denver winning last night, tiebreak for the division is division record so we need this game.
by Dude52089 on Nov 27, 2009 9:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll sick with my original score prediction
30-21, Chargers
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Nov 27, 2009 10:33 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I meant stick
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Nov 27, 2009 10:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm going 30-7
although we haven’t got the prediction thread up yet.
"Wipe that golden tear from your mother dear, and raise what's left of the flag for me."-- Flogging Molly, "What's Left Of The Flag"
Ali Villanueva (OT/WR, Army) has 460 yards and 5 TDs in only 7 games with a mediocre quarterback. Just sayin'...
by StrangeBroP25 on Nov 27, 2009 10:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
28-3
KC will march downfield three times, and will get one FG off of it. They’ll also get a short field off of a pick, but cough it right back up. A little rain will put some “balance” in SD, but it won’t matter; Rivers will throw for 200-250 and 2/1 TD/Int, LT will finally break 100 and will score, and Jackson fantasy owners will have to wait for the Dallas game to get their next big thrill, though he’ll put in his share.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Nov 28, 2009 6:59 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
38-10
Not even colse, defense scores!!!!
by Jimmy.d on Nov 28, 2009 9:25 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
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