[T]his week San Diego passes Denver for the first time in 2009. The Denver collapse has been quite...

[T]his week San Diego passes Denver for the first time in 2009. The Denver collapse has been quite remarkable, especially if you look at the FO playoff odds. Just four weeks ago, we listed Denver with a 98.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, including a 96 percent chance of winning the division and a 71 percent chance of getting a first-round bye. This week, the Broncos' chances of making the playoffs are listed at 57.2 percent, with only a 20 percent chance of winning their division. San Diego's win over Denver raised the chances of the Chargers making the playoffs by 38 percent, and cut the chances of the Broncos making the playoffs by 24 percent.

Week 11 DVOA Rankings

3 months ago Zach (maestro876) 20 comments 0 recs |

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Some nice, positive trends in our DVOA.

As the quote points out, our overall DVOA continues its upward trend, finally putting us in the top half of the league. We rank #13, with the weighted DVOA bumping us up a spot to #12 (weighted, meaning giving more weight to more recent games). That’s up from dead average #16 last week.

The improvement is even more dramatic on offense. We now rank as the 6th best offense in football, and if you weight towards the more recent games, we go up to #4. We also sport the league’s 2nd best passing attack, behind only the Patriots. Our rushing offense has gone up a couple spots to #26, over last week when we were #28 I believe.

We also improved on defense, but not by as much. Last week we were #25, and now we’re #22, actual and weighted. Our pass defense is #17, and our rush defense is #28.

So the team continues to improve. It’ll be hard to improve our defensive rankings that much considering how bad we were early in the season, but so long as they get the job done on the field, that’s all that matters heading into the playoffs.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 24, 2009 11:53 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

If someone with premium [looks at Richard and Wonko] could post our rating for the game this weekend

I’d be much appreciated.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 24, 2009 11:56 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I'll wager a guess and say it was

between 50 and 60%.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 24, 2009 12:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

51.2%. Our second best game of the season. Last week’s was our best (64.4%).

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 24, 2009 12:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The runs we gave up probably hurt.

Along with a couple of the passes to Marshall and Gaffney.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 24, 2009 12:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Also

I would have thought the big pass plays we gave up to the Eagles would have hurt our DVOA.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 24, 2009 12:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The were adjusted

Because it was garbage time.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 24, 2009 1:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ah, I didn't think they adjusted for that.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 24, 2009 1:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Jackson still holds the triple crown for wide receivers

though Reggie Wayne is creeping up on him. If trends continue, Jackson and Wayne clearly should be this year’s all-pro receivers.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 24, 2009 11:59 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Also

Chargers now have the second easiest remaining schedule by DVOA. The Bengals have the easiest. Basically, our average opponent strength the rest of the way is worse than Washington, but better than the Chicago Bears. I would have said that is equal to the Titans, but they are the most inconsistent team in football (they lead the league in Variance by DVOA) so nothing is really like them not even themselves.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 24, 2009 12:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

The only remaining team that we should lose to is Dallas and that’s because the game is in Dallas.

by Richard Wade on Nov 24, 2009 12:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

They have a legit chance to win out.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 24, 2009 12:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Especially considering that Dallas appears to be regressing again.

And God knows which Tennessee team shows up.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 24, 2009 12:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

This is the NFL -- any given Sunday ...

The speculation about winning out is very understandable, given the last two games, but as well as we have played the last couple years to close the season, I’d be shocked if we won out…. We of course could, but chances are we won’t…. We could lose to any one left on the schedule — with the possible exception of Cleveland.

The Patriots aren’t likely to win out either; so the discussion about #2 vs. #3 seeds is relevant, for sure…. Don’t count the Bengals out of that discussion, though — especially since they have the head-to-head meeting with the Chargers here in December….

If we continue to improve on both sides of the ball (with no special teams slip-ups), I can see 12-4; but I’m still being what I consider cautiously optimistic and predicting 11-5. If one of those wins is against Cincy, that could still be good enough for a #2 or #3 seed.

by jctess on Nov 25, 2009 3:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Obviously we SHOULD beat the 'Skins and Chiefs, as well as the Browns ...

but you never know…. NO one thought the Chiefs would beat the Steelers, and very few thought Washington would beat Denver (although that upset was easier to call, which, I’m not ashamed to boast, I did). If we take care of business the next few weeks, I’ll be a lot more comfortable thinking we’ll win 3 of the last 4; in any event, I don’t see us doing any worse than splitting the last 4.

by jctess on Nov 25, 2009 4:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Here's something interesting, in regards to playoff seeding.

Even if we were to win out and finish at 13-3, that may not be enough for a bye. Why?

Because if the Patriots also win out, they too would finish at 13-3, and have a better record against common opponents, therefore getting the #2 spot while we’d get the #3.

Here’s New England’s remaining schedule:

@ New Orleans
@ Miami Dolphins
vs. Carolina Panthers
@ Buffalo Bills
vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
@ Houston Texans

That’s a lot of road games, but if they beat the Saints this Monday, I have a hard time saying they’re likely to lose any of their remaining games.

On the flip side, we have decent chances to lose to Dallas, Cincinnati, and Tennessee. Even if we win them all, that still might not be enough for a bye.

"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 24, 2009 1:35 PM PST reply actions 0 recs