So it seems like our improvement in record this year is due mainly to improvements in defense. Although none of the numbers really jump out at you as the reason between our good record this year and our bad record last year (at this pont in the season)

I have another theory I’ve been thinking about. It spawned by how Kevin Acee is always surprised by how teams tend to get away from what they do best against the Chargers. For instance, the Broncos and Giants seemed to stop running the ball despite sucess on the ground, and the Broncos didn’t blitz as much in game 2 as they did in game 1. I think it is partially due to the Chargers’ early success. I think once the Chargers get points on the board and get up by more than one TD, the other team starts to panic a little. They know we are an exposive offense and if they are down by two scores, there is a good chance things are going to get out of hand quick. So they get a little more desperate on offense and end up throwing the ball more which may not play to their strength. And while our secondary might not be a whole lot better than last year, our DL is much better at applying pressure when we know they are going to pass.

It would be interesting to see how 1st quarter and 1st half leads this year compare to last year.

because watching this years team, I feel we are better then last year in almost every category. I’d say maybe because these are not defensive adjusted stats(?) but our opponents through week 10 seemed similar to last years in terms of strength.

This is a very acceptable formula:
4th in points per game
15th in points allowed per game
+5 turnovers

I made a fanshot about it.

The passing offense seems to be every bit of efficient as it was last year (DVOA can back this up). But, the run game took a step back. The passing offense isn’t able accumulate quite as many of the yards because the run game doesn’t help it pick up first downs as much. So basically the conventional stats will make it look like the offense as a whole took a step back, but really it all stems from the running game.

On defense the rankings in total yards don’t seem to mesh with the yards per play. On defense we are higher ranked yards per game, but lower ranked in yards per play. That is really odd. We must be doing a better job of limiting their possessions on offense. I know our ST is worse this year, so it also may be that we are giving them better field position and so they don’t accumulate as many yards. Interesting.

We are good at defending those, but underneath coverage seems a little off. Thats the coverage linebackers being a little slow to act/react. One thing I would like to see more out of our linemen is hands up in the air to bat or tip passes. I only ever see Philips doing it and occasionally Merriman. But the front 3 should start doing it more often as well. Tipped passes = more INT’s and less completions.

and damn those are some angry people,

stay away from those chiefs fans, i never thought it but they were the worse.

is the drop in 3rd down % from 2008 to 2009 (by rank, I didn’t actually bother checking the raw percentage). Just by gut feeling, it seemed like 3rd down conversions were rare last year and pretty frequent this year. Maybe last year it was a case of several conversions in a row on shorter plays, followed by crushing stops to kill a drive (and more memorable for me). Then this year, big plays have taken away the sheer number of 3rd downs and lowered the percentage in a smaller sample, and the conversions have happened in more memorable situations for me.

I think that it’s incredible that (going by DVOA) the only thing we’re better at this year is defending the pass. Running the ball, passing the ball, stopping the run and special teams are all areas where we’re weaker in 2009.