Why the Broncos Losing to the Redskins is Even More Important
by Wonko on Nov 20, 2009 11:45 AM PST
44 comments
Let's play the what if game. What if the Chargers beat the Broncos on Sunday? Well, then they are in sole possession of first place and, as the saying goes, "Control Their Own Destiny." That means they would win the division if they won all their remaining games and the Broncos won all their remaining games. However, as much as I love the Chargers, I'm not sure I see them finishing the season on an 11 game winning streak. So, what else could happen?
What if the Chargers lose a game (following a victory over the Broncos) and the Broncos win all of theirs? Well, then the two teams finish in a tie at 12-4.
First tie-breaker (we all know this) is head-to-head. No help there since in this scenario they split the series.
Next up, divisional record. Chargers are current 3-1 and with a win over the Broncos would be 4-1. A loss to the Chiefs would be a problem in this scenario since the Broncos will finish 5-1 in the division if they win all their games except the Chargers game. So, the Chiefs can't be the Chargers 1 loss if the Chargers and Broncos both finish 12-4.
Next up, common opponents. This is where the Redskins game is important. Every opponent on the Chargers schedule is also an opponent of the Broncos except the Titans and Dolphins (the Broncos have the Colts and Patriots). Since we already know that the divisional records would be the same in this scenario (5-1), then that leaves 8 common opponents. Currently, the Chargers are 2-2 in these games with 4 left to play (Browns, Cowboys, Bengals and Redskins). The Broncos are 3-3 in these games with 2 left to play (Giants and Eagles). The 2 Chargers losses are to the same teams that Broncos lost to (Ravens and Steelers), but since the Broncos lost to the Redskins it providers an opening. So all the Chargers would need to do is beat the those 4 teams (Browns, Cowboys, Bengals and Redskins) and they would win the tie-breaker in this scenario.
So the one team the Chargers can afford to lose to if they beat the Broncos and win all but 1 of their remaining games? The Tennessee Titans.
I will point out that if the Broncos lose to the Colts and win all their other games and the Chargers lose 2 of their remaining games and neither loss is to the Titans so that they both finish 11-5, then the Broncos win the division. This is because at least one of those Chargers losses would either include the Chiefs (lose the divisional tie-breaker) or it both losses are to common opponents (and the Chargers would lose the common games tie-breaker with a record of 4-4 to the Broncos' 5-3).
The fourth tie-breaker is conference record. Basically, the Chargers would lose this tie-breaker if they lost to the Bengals or Browns and the teams finished tied (and, obviously the Broncos don't have any non-Colts losses). The Broncos loss to the Redskins actually works against the Chargers here since it was a non-conference game, but we are really getting into some odd scenarios here.
The best way to think of it might be this. If the Chargers beat the Broncos, then any non-Titans loss by the Chargers needs an accompanying non-Colts loss by the Broncos if they are going to finish in a tie. Or, maybe the best way to think of it is: Don't finish in a tie. Easier said than done.
Any questions?
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Excellent
Breakdown of the remaining season and games. Good information to know for the upcoming games and which ones REALLY matter. Awesome. Rec’d.
mind bending
but very well put. so the easiest thing would be, just win more games than the broncos.
The peanut gallery has spoken!!!
I guess I could have included KC and Oak, LOL
Both have division elimination numbers of 3. Chargers can eliminate KC from the division simply by winning their next two games.
It could be worse for KC and Oak. Tampa Bay and Detroit are already eliminated from their division races. Cleveland and Tennessee have an elimination number of 2.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
Tennessee
May have no chance of winning their division, but if ever an 0-6 team looked like it might make a WC push….
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Nov 20, 2009 3:07 PM PST up reply actions
To win their division
They have to win every game and Indy has to lose every game to win it outright, or they can win all but 1 and Indy loses and somehow beat them in a tiebreaker (don’t know what scenarios there are that allow for that) or they win every game and Indy loses every game but one to make another tie.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
They'd have to win out.
Very possible it’ll be Christmas before they’re eliminated, though.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Nov 21, 2009 9:33 AM PST up reply actions
Nice job, Wonko
I’m on the “we win out” bandwagon.
Norv has messed with our heads so much over the past few years, why not? It would be quite fitting.
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
You can use my head
Apparently it’s too dense for all of these stats.
haha
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Nov 20, 2009 3:47 PM PST up reply actions
If the Chargers beat both Denver and KC...
Then Denver’s six games would break down to:
Unknown opponent
Soft opponent, must win
@ the big dog
Soft opponent, must win
@ unknown opponent
@ Soft opponent, must win
Even if San Diego loses two games. Any two games. If San Diego loses Tennessee only, Denver has no scenario. If San Diego loses any other single game, Denver will by winning out end up with the tiebreaker on either Conference or SOV.
But even a win on Sunday won’t put the Chargers in that catbird seat. They’ll have to win Sunday, then win next Sunday too. Obviously, that’s feasible….
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Nov 20, 2009 3:05 PM PST reply actions
Why do you say
That Denver will have the Strength of Victory tiebreaker (that’s tie breaker #5 that I didn’t list above)? I didn’t bother to try to figure that out, because I didn’t think it could be determined.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
Oh, nevermind
I see. Strength of Victory is opponents’ winning percentage and the scenario you present the Chargers will have beaten the same teams as the Broncos, except for wins over the Dolphins and Titans where the Broncos beat the Colts and Patriots. The assumption is that the Dolphins+Titans winning percentage would be less than the Colts+Patriots and that’s probably fair albeit not necessarily a given.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
and you are assuming that the Redskins winning percentage will be less than the Cowboys winning percentage
another fair comparison albeit not necessarily a given.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
They were 4 games back last week...
The ‘Skins have taken the first step on San Diego Highway! Don’t hold your breath.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Nov 20, 2009 5:12 PM PST up reply actions
You’ve beaten my giant, which means you’re exceptionally strong, so you could’ve put the poison in your own goblet, trusting on your strength to save you, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But, you’ve also bested my Spaniard, which means you must have studied, and in studying you must have learned that man is mortal, so you would have put the poison as far from yourself as possible, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.
"Football is a physical sport, sometimes you have a disagreement on what's going on, and you have a discussion about it." Kris Dielman
by Brian (DaBolts) on Nov 20, 2009 6:05 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Nov 20, 2009 9:34 PM PST up reply actions
An ROUS…
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Nov 20, 2009 9:57 PM PST up reply actions
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Nov 20, 2009 10:08 PM PST up reply actions
Only a fool goes up against a Sicilian when death is on the line.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Nov 21, 2009 2:48 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Heh
Whenever people break down detailed playoff scenarios, I always think of that.
Does anybody know the deepest into the tie breakers any team has ever gone? I’m pretty sure it has never gone to the coin flip, but what is the closest to the flip it has gone?
"Football is a physical sport, sometimes you have a disagreement on what's going on, and you have a discussion about it." Kris Dielman
by Brian (DaBolts) on Nov 21, 2009 9:28 AM PST up reply actions
After '07
There was a 3-way tie that went to coin-flip in the drafting order, near the bottom. It was a head-to-head chain with KC, Oakland and Atlanta, if I remember right.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Nov 21, 2009 9:36 AM PST up reply actions
BUT!
If the Chargers beat the Chiefs, and the Broncos beat the Colts, and Tom Cable punches his towel boy, then if you bring the goose to the other side of the river, and come back for the fox…
Just kidding. Really interesting breakdown. Personally, I’d like to let another week or two play out before getting serious with the scenario game. Still, it makes for interesting conversation.
"I'm a Michigan Wolverine, which means I'm the only one who watches 'Rudy' hoping he pulls a hamstring or pops a quad." - Rich Eisen
I know I should have waited
A little voice inside of me was telling me to wait until after the Denver game to put up a post like this. But, the scenarios wouldn’t stop wandering around in my head so I had to write them down and at that point the written form might as well be a FanPost.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
you always write interesting shit,and it's explained just right that a dummy like me can understand and relate and converse with others about it.
too many and’s…
HUSTLE MADE ENT. NEW TRACK...CHECK FOR IT...NOTHING BUT THAT KILLA CALI FIRE FO SHO!!! http://www.myspace.com/jayoh1ne
by Gorditoe1 on Nov 21, 2009 2:07 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
muchos gracias
for breaking down the playoff scenarios in case of a tiebreak. if the bolts win tomorrow and i’m betting/hoping/thinking they do, then i don’t think the two will ever be tied again. depending on the status kyle orton’s ankle, a diminished orton or simms starting at qb for the broncos the remainder of the way doesn’t look good for the donkeys. they should get to 10 wins, but that would mean going 4-2 the rest of the way and they still have to play the colts, gigantes and eagles. 3-3 looks about the best they could do (Ws against the chiefs, raiders and chiefs. Ls against the colts, nyg and philly) for a final record of 9-7. if the bolts win tomorrow and get to 7-3, a 10-6 record would be about the worst they could do (3Ws against the brownies, chiefs and skins, 3Ls againts the boys, bungles and titans). anything can happen of coarse but if the bolts win tomorrow, they are in the driver seat and barring a miracle or major injury a fourth straight afc west title is well in grasp.
playoff picture; indy, ne, cincy, sd, pitt and one more (baltimore, houston, denver, jax) i always hoped we’d get to play indy or ne again this year. i say we do.
Okay, with the victory over the Broncos in the books
I can make this simple. The Chargers magic number is 6. Any combination of 6 wins by the Chargers or Broncos losses or ties will guarantee the Chargers the division. If the wins and losses result in the Chargers clinching a tie breaker, then the magic number is 5 (the simplest way to clinch the tie breaker is to beat the Chiefs next week and the Broncos lose one of their 3 remaining games against the Chiefs and Raiders).
I’ll also note that any tie breakers at this point hinge very firmly on the Chargers beating the Chiefs next week. Basically, that game should be treated as if its every bit as important as the Broncos game that just took place and I hope the players feel that way too.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
I hope the Chiefs' win last week over the Steelers
will keep the Chargers from looking past them.
"I aim to misbehave."
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 23, 2009 7:06 PM PST up reply actions
It's November
I don’t think this team looks past anyone late in the season. We’re in the magical en-of-season zone.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
Seems like it, doesn't it?
If we survive September-October without too many losses, the Chargers are nigh-unstoppable down the stretch.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 24, 2009 7:30 AM PST up reply actions
hear hear!
HUSTLE MADE ENT. NEW TRACK...CHECK FOR IT...NOTHING BUT THAT KILLA CALI FIRE FO SHO!!! http://www.myspace.com/jayoh1ne
Right now as it stands
Our game against Cincinnati is going to be huge, considering Denver already beat them. This upcoming game could also be for the #2 seed in the AFC.
As for Denver, I’m hoping for a loss to KC or Oakland, seeing as both teams have newfound hope. One more division loss for Denver, and we have nothing to worry about.
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