Predicting the Score by the Numbers
by Steve (Grey Suit) on Nov 19, 2009 11:15 AM PST
in Statistics
28 comments
Well there is good news and there is bad news, the bad news is my prediction didn't do so well last week but since the Chargers won the good news is that my prediction didn't do so well last week. Click below to see what I came up with this week against the Broncos.
Major Stat Geek Warning Below!!!
So far this season the Broncos have scored 18.6 points per game and allowed 16.8 points per game thus far. The Broncos opponents have scored 20.4 points and allowed 19.6 points per game on average thus far. If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Broncos have scored 1 fewer point per game than the average and have allowed 3.6 points fewer per game than the average.
|
Points For |
Points Against |
|
|
Broncos |
18.6 |
16.8 |
|
22 |
16.3 |
|
|
8.7 |
25 |
|
|
9.8 |
24.1 |
|
|
24.9 |
18.8 |
|
|
28.8 |
16.7 |
|
|
Chargers |
26.3 |
22.4 |
|
24.7 |
17.1 |
|
|
23 |
17.4 |
|
|
15.6 |
19 |
|
|
Average |
20.4 |
19.6 |
|
Adjustment |
-1.0 |
-3.6 |
The Chargers have scored 26.3 points per game and allowed 22.4 points per game on average thus far, while their opponents up until this point have scored an average of 19.8 points per game and allowed 21.3 points per game on average thus far. If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Chargers are scoring 5 more points per game than the average and are giving up 2.6 points per game than the average.
|
Points For |
Points Against |
|
|
Chargers |
26.3 |
22.4 |
|
Raiders |
9.8 |
24.1 |
|
Ravens |
24.7 |
17.1 |
|
24.2 |
25.2 |
|
|
Steelers |
23 |
17.4 |
|
Broncos |
18.6 |
16.8 |
|
15.8 |
23.9 |
|
|
Raiders |
9.8 |
24.1 |
|
25.8 |
22.7 |
|
|
26.9 |
20.4 |
|
|
Average |
19.8 |
21.3 |
|
Adjustment |
5.0 |
2.6 |
If you take the numbers from above and apply them to this week’s game you get the following:
Chargers
The Chargers score on average 26.3 points, the Broncos allow 3.6 fewer points than average, Chargers should score 22.7 points
The Chargers allow on average 22.4 points, the Broncos score on average 1 point less than average, Chargers should allow 21.3 points.
Broncos
The Broncos score on average 18.6 points, the Chargers allow 2.5 points more than average, the Broncos should score 21.1 points.
The Broncos allow on average 16.8 points , the Chargers score on average 5 points higher than average, the Broncos should allow 21.8 points.
Team Pts For Pts Against
Chargers 22.7 21.3
Broncos 21.2 21.8
If we average the points scored and against together for each team you get the following score:
Chargers 22
Broncos 21
2 recs |
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Dammit Steve
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 19, 2009 11:34 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Wow
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Nov 19, 2009 11:46 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
You're wrong again
We’ll win by much more than 1 point. :-)
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Nov 19, 2009 11:57 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Technically, he's not wrong
because it’s not his opinion.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Nov 19, 2009 1:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
OK, John
My apologies, Steve.
My opinion is that we’re gonna to thump their donkey asses.
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Nov 19, 2009 3:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
LoL No worries
I too think the Chargers will stomp some Donkey ass.
by Steve (Grey Suit) on Nov 19, 2009 3:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yay!
Well explained! I actually understood this! Good stuff. Keep it up.
"Live to love and love to live"!
by Desyrel on Nov 19, 2009 1:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Hmm,
Perhaps you forgot just the potential of Simms playing…That alone should drive Denvers score down by at least 10 points!
Whats that? 22-11 Bolts!
Good post Steve
There is a time and place for everything...But its always Juju time!
Chug-a-chug-a-chug-a-JU-JU
Currently initiating Eddie Pleasant BLITZkreig upon Nick Foles. Standby for further information.
by CaDuck on Nov 19, 2009 4:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Down 10 for them & +10 for the Chargers...
32-11 lol
"It dont matter if you win or lose your still a loser... said the Chargers Fan"
by ChargersWitch on Nov 19, 2009 7:31 PM PST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Are
you a math teacher or an accountant? Good post!
by GABOLT on Nov 19, 2009 7:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
My dad's an engineer
He told me to tell you it might be interesting to rerun the numbers with 2 standards deviations or something. I don’t remember how to do that since the last math class I took was in 12th grade.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 20, 2009 6:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Can't the stats I found from the NFL only give me one sigfig.
by Steve (Grey Suit) on Nov 20, 2009 7:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Nov 20, 2009 10:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
wow hmmm....
impressive. I have the Chargers going over 30+points Sunday but im very impressed w/ ur math skills bud. I<3Math…
"It dont matter if you win or lose your still a loser... said the Chargers Fan"
by ChargersWitch on Nov 19, 2009 7:30 PM PST via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Fun stuff
If Simms plays, he won’t be as bad as he was against Washington. The Broncos will (obviously) have seen how the Eagles torched the Chargers defense but failed in the red zone. The Chargers offense should be much better against the Broncos than they were in the first game.
This game is a VERY hard game to call. Take out the 3 special teams returns for TD’s, and the Broncos beat the Chargers 20-16 in SD. Just for symmetry’s sake, I’m going to pick SD to beat Denver at Mile High 27-23. There will be only one big special teams play. If it’s Sproles, that could be the game-decider; if it’s Royal, that could be what makes it close. [It might not go for a TD, but set one up (or a FG, if the ‘D’ subsequently holds — which could also be determinative….]
Of course it could come down to turnovers; hopefully we continue to play smartly in that area and have only one at the most. If we can pick off Simms and/or Orton twice (or make their QB cough it up on a sack once, while getting an interception), we should win….. If we force 3 turnovers, it could be a sizable win…. Philip, you’d better not cough it up on any sacks yourself…. — That might be one of the only ways we lose.
But I think we win a close one, even though Denver’s at home. I obviously like our trend (and theirs) and our momentum. The Orton-Simms thing just makes it very hard to predict a Broncos win; but don’t be surprised if it’s close.
by jctess on Nov 20, 2009 1:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Broncos QBs don't have the arms to do what McNabb did
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 20, 2009 6:47 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Or the receivers really. Royal and Marshall are great, but neither has even been much of a downfield weapon. Both of them are more skilled at getting yards after the catch.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Nov 20, 2009 10:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Dinkin' and dunkin' down the field
could get the Broncos points, but hopefully the Chargers’ red-zone defense ponies up again (no pun intended).
Anyone think Rivera might mix it up not only with more blitzes (which I hope to God he does) but also with dropping Phillips and/or Merriman into coverage more to try to disrupt the Broncos’ short passing game?… I know Merriman’s not that good in pass coverage, but it could really cross either Denver QB up. Especially Simms.
I personally think our 4-man rush stinks, and the 5-man (with Shawne and Sean rushing) hasn’t been all that much better, ESP. against a good o’line. And the Broncos have one guy dinged up on the o-line, but they’re pretty solid and have been playing together a long time….
I know the players have to play, play well, and execute, but I’m counting on a big game from RR (and Norv, too, from the offensive side).
by jctess on Nov 20, 2009 11:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We did go over 30+ points
and we did have 3 turnovers and Rivers didnt get sacked…. Im guessing teams down the stretch arent gonna punt to sproles cause its been that way since the cheifs game. And I dont blame them. But everytime i see the football leave Rivers hands im almost confident that it will end up in one of our guys hands…
"It dont matter if you win or lose your still a loser... said the Chargers Fan"
by ChargersWitch on Nov 25, 2009 8:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not for predictions
This is very interessting and fun, but it only explains what has happened so far. Very little use to make predictions.
I really think that the Chargers will score more than 30 points on Sunday, and if Simms starts the score will be something like 40-10 Chargers.
by frenchcharger on Nov 20, 2009 1:07 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Call the SPCA right now
Sunday at Invesco we will commit extreme animal (donkey) abuse.
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Nov 20, 2009 3:41 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
you do know
beastiality is a crime………………..
"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work."
- Thomas Alva Edison
"Success is not a place at which one arrives, but rather... the spirit with which one undertakes and continues the journey."
- Alex Noble
by DenBronx on Nov 20, 2009 8:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I see lots of good
And a 34-17 win
by Superduperboltman on Nov 20, 2009 9:30 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
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