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Week 10 Review: Philadelphia Eagles at Chargers. Final: 31-23 Chargers.

 

Another masterful showing by Philip Rivers, a vintage performance from LaDainian Tomlinson, and a stingy red-zone defense give the Chargers a 1st place tie in the AFC West.

Eagles vs Chargers boxscore

It's amazing that less than 1 month ago, the Chargers were left for dead by the Denver Broncos following a 34-23 defeat at Qualcomm Stadium.  The vultures, as well as angry Chargers' fans (myself prominently among them) were ready to strip the decaying flesh off the carcasses of A.J. Smith, Norv Turner, Ron Rivera, and numerous players on the roster.

It was QB Philip Rivers who insisted that we put away our torches and pitchforks, telling us "We just have to start winning games and hopefully in a month we’ll look up and be in good shape."  By defeating the Eagles on Sunday, in game that was dominated by the Chargers for the 1st 3 quarters, Rivers and the Chargers made good on their promise.

Aided for the 2nd straight week by an opponent's unusual decision making (Eagles Head Coach Andy Reid in this case), the Chargers capitalized on most of their opportunities, limited the damage done by their opponents, and rode a solid effort from coaches and players into a 1st place tie with the suddenly reeling Denver Broncos.  Grades are below the jump...

Star-divide

 

Quarterbacks: A

It was evident in the game plan that the Chargers did not want to get into a shootout with the Eagles.  Rivers was asked to manage the game, control the ball, and keep the Eagles offense of the field.  By any measure, he succeeded.  Rivers completed 20 of 25 attempts for 2 touchdowns, one being a gorgeous read and throw to FB Mike Tolbert, who ran to the open space left by Philadelphia's blitzing linebackers and scampered for a 20-yard TD.  For the other TD, Rivers okey-doked CB Asante Samuel with a pump fake, then found WR Legedu Naanee alone in the back of the endzone - also a 20-yard score.  However, Rivers was at his best on the Chargers' final drive.  Having only converted 1of 5 3rd downs during the game, Rivers converted two 3rd down plays, bleeding more than 6 minutes off the clock and leaving Eagles QB Donovan McNabb only 30 seconds to mount a final drive.  2 weeks, 2 huge performances in the clutch.

Running Backs: A-

LaDainian Tomlinson has still got it.  After being the victim of nagging injuries and erratic offensive line play, Tomlinson broke out with a vintage performance.  24 carries for 96 yards and 2 TDs.  I think it's fair to say Tomlinson is not the explosive RB he was 3 years ago, but he is still an effective downhill runner who has enough speed to turn a 5 yard run into a 20-yard TD, as was the case Sunday.  Darren Sproles added a couple of nice runs and catches off screen passes.  Both backs were effective in pass protection.  As mentioned above, FB Mike Tolbert turned a 3 yard hot route into a 20-yard TD - he has deceptive speed and needs to be incorporated more in the passing game.  Both Tolbert and FB Jacob Hester has their best days as lead blockers.

Wide Receivers: A-

The Eagles determined that they would not let WR Vincent Jackson beat them.  This was fine, because the rest of the Chargers' receivers stepped up and made the plays when needed.  TE Antonio Gates dominated the middle of the Eagles' defense, catching 7 passes for 78 yards.  Malcom Floyd contributed  three catches - one of which was a spectacular reach back across the middle for a 1st down.  Another was  one one of his patented jump-ball grabs, setting up San Diego for their 2nd TD.  Naanee, in addition to his TD catch, made a huge play on the last drive, turning a 3 yard catch into an 18 yard gain that all but sealed the game.  Though he had only one reception, Jackson made the play when needed, picking up the initial first down on the Chargers' last possession.

Offensive Line: B+

By any measure, this was the O-Line's best overall game of the season.  Without exception, the Chargers' stymied the Eagles' various blitz packages.  2 sacks were allowed, ironically on 4-man rushes.  The first, both LG Kris Dielman and RG Louis Vasquez were blown up by DTs Darren Howard and Victor Abiamiri, respectively.  The other sack was allowed by reserve OL Brandyn Dombroski (subbing for RT Jeromey Clary) against DE Juqua Parker.  Run blocking was significantly improved across the board.  Dielman in particular, made a great block to spring Tomlinson's 20-yard TD run.  Overall, the Chargers were equally adept running in power situations and spread situations.

Defensive Line: C

The Eagles mounted no serious effort to run the ball, although the D-Line continued their struggles in defending draw plays.  By and large, the Eagles comitted themselves to winning through the air, and virtually neutralized the Chargers' defensive line in the process.  DE Luis Castillo was double-teamed most of the game, which prevented him from opening room for the OLBs Shaun Phillips and Larry English.  However, the line made it's presence known on the Eagles' first scoring drive, bottling up the middle and holding Philadelphia to a chip shot FG from the 1-yard line.

Linebackers: B-

OLBs Shawne Merriman, Shaun Phillips, and Larry English were neutralized by the Eagles offensive line.  No sacks, and only handful of tackles and hurries between the three of them. Phillips had the only tackles for losses among the entire group.  Inside, however, ILBs Brandon Siler, Stephen Cooper, and Kevin Burnett played very well, contributing a total of 19 tackles.  Tackling among the three was consistently strong, and Siler got the only sack among the front seven.  The only black mark against the ILBs, and it's one that cost the Chargers 10 points - failure to hold onto interceptions.  Each ILB dropped one interception, and all three were among the biggest hidden plays of the game (see below).

Secondary: C-

It seems evident that Defensive Coordinator Ron Rivera adopted a "bend-but-don't-break" approach, which explains the space that CBs Quentin Jammer, Antonio Cromartie, Antoine Cason, and Steve Gregory allowed at the line.  Unfortuantely, the pass rush was ineffective, and the group was torched through the air.  Tackling was an issue for the entire group for first time in 2-3 weeks.  Safties Eric Weddle, Kevin Ellison, and Paul Oilver were mostly ineffective running the safety blitz, with Oliver recording the lone sack among the group.  In particular, the Eagles took advantage of the slot position, manned by Gregory, with WR Jason Avant amassing 156 yards on 8 catches.  Cason was also beat for a TD in the 4th quarter, when he dropped coverage on WR Jeremy Maclin.

Special Teams: B

One of the major keys to this game was controlling Eagles WRs DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin in the return game.  By and large, the coverage units succeeded.  Neither player had a significant return.  On the other side, Sproles was unable to break a big return, but made a terrific play early in the game, fielding a punt at the Chargers' 8 yard line and preventing the Eagles from downing the ball inside the 5.  P Mike Scifres and PK Nate Kaeding were their usual effective selves.

Coaching: B

For the 2nd straight week, Norv Turner took advantage of a ridiculous game plan by the opposing coach, this time the Eagles' Andy Reid.  Turner was smarter in the use of his timeouts, and consistently kept the Eagles defense off balance with a good mix of run and pass plays.  In particular, his use of the Wildcat netted a pair of nice runs for Tomlinson and Naanee.  In this game, he was also smart not to get into a shootout against the Eagles offense.  On defense, Ron Rivera applied the "bend-but-don't break" approach, and it was effective in keeping the Eagles out of the endzone for 3 quarters.  In some instances, he was using a 2-man line, practically begging the Eagles to run the ball.  To his credit, and the Eagles' coaches discredit, Philadelphia never really attempted to run the ball.  Some changes need to be made to the safety blitzes and zone blitzes, as it appeared the Eagles were not surprised by any of the blitz calls.

Hidden Plays (Non scoring, non-turnover plays that directly affected the outcome):

  • In the 1st quarter, Eagles' LB Jeremiah Trotter commits a holding penalty that backs the Eagles offensive inside their own 5 yard line, leading to a bad punt and good field position on the Chargers 1st scoring drive.
  • In the 2nd quarter, Norv Tuner calls a counter on 3rd-and-inches with Darren Sproles.   The play is stuffed and the Chargers give the ball back to the Eagles with some momentum.
  • Next Eagles possession - Brandon Siler drops an INT inside the Eagles' 30 yard line.  The next play, RB Brian Westbrook gains 18 yards on a screen pass to set up the Eagles' 2nd scoring drive.
  • 3rd quarter.  The Eagles stuff Sproles on a run play, but the drive continues when DT Mike Patterson jumps offsides.  Rivers' TD pass to Naanee occurs on the next play.
  • Naanee's excessive celebration forces the Chargers to kick off from their own 15 yard line, setting up the Eagles next possession at their own 47 yard line.
  • On the following drive, dropped INTs by Kevin Burnett and Stephen Cooper allow the Eagles to continue their 1st TD drive of the game.

Biggest Positives:

  • The emergence of a legitimate running game.
  • Rivers relies on receivers not named Vincent Jackson to make plays.
  • Showing resiliency on the final possession  and denying the Eagles the opportunity for a game-winning TD drive.
  • Red zone defense was stout for 3 quarters.
  • Chargers have scored 10 TD in their last 11 trips inside the opponent's 20.

Biggest Areas of Concern:

  • Failure of blitzes to get consistent pressure on McNabb.
  • Erratic tackling in the secondary.
  • Success of opponents using slot (3rd and 4th) receivers.
  • Defense is unable to hold onto turnovers.

Looking ahead to:

Reclaiming 1st place with a victory over the Denver Broncos.  I am expecting to enjoy eating some crow on Sunday evening.  The Chargers need to attack the hell out of Denver QB Kyle Orton, especially with his gimpy ankle.  Staying patient against the Broncos' defense will be key.

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Once again

Nice write-up & another masterful performance by Phillip Rivers. I’ll take him on any game day against anyone else under center. Period.

Bad.ass.country.boy.

If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!

Robert Hunter

by Buck Melanoma on Nov 18, 2009 7:44 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Let's make Kyle run around.

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 18, 2009 7:45 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

That would be a great positive.

Let’s hope SP and SM get 2 more sacks a piece and cause turnovers a plenty for a Chargers win.

HUSTLE MADE ENT. NEW TRACK...CHECK FOR IT...NOTHING BUT THAT KILLA CALI FIRE FO SHO!!! http://www.myspace.com/jayoh1ne

by Gorditoe1 on Nov 18, 2009 9:30 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

another hidden play

James Holt, 2 special teams tackles on 9 total eagles returns. I think the coverage teams are much improved and Holt (and Spillman) have really helped out there

by Stephen (shaynes41) on Nov 18, 2009 8:40 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

BTW, remember how mad everybody was when the Chargers said they were keeping Tolbert on the 53 man roster for his contributions to special teams? They knew what they were talking about. He leads the team with 12 special teams tackles.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John (obviousman) on Nov 18, 2009 9:17 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If it wasn’t for Hester’s block punt and steal(against the steelers) for a touchdown. I’d say Tolbert has been the most impressive player on special teams.

by Dude52089 on Nov 18, 2009 9:35 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Doh!

"Football is a physical sport, sometimes you have a disagreement on what's going on, and you have a discussion about it." Kris Dielman

by Brian (DaBolts) on Nov 18, 2009 11:09 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I wasn't

I’ve said all along that I wanted Tolbert at FB, not Hester.

If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!

Robert Hunter

by Buck Melanoma on Nov 18, 2009 11:28 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Both are Good Enough -- for now....

Tolbert is definitely on the rise…. Hester’s good to have around and use sometimes…. Upgrades at other positions are higher priorities.

by jctess on Nov 20, 2009 12:47 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Just wanted to point out

that the Billick-whoever broadcasting team is terrible.

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 9:35 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

And we get Enberg-Fouts again this weekend.

My guess is the Nantz-Simms duo is going to watch the Pats blow out the Jets. Aaah, East Coast bias.

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 9:35 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I prefer Enberg-Fouts. Both Nantz and Simms drive me crazy with how little they know about the Chargers.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John (obviousman) on Nov 18, 2009 9:57 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Enberg-Fouts

will also do the Chiefs game (otherwise it would have been difficult for Fouts to be at the 50th Anniversary Team celebration).

I like Nantz-Simms better. I’ve never noticed any lack of team knowledge on their parts. Enberg drives me crazy with how little he can see of what’s going on in the game. Fouts has very little knowledge of anything in the modern game, he’s just a fun personality (he’s the Scott and BR of football announcers).

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 10:02 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That's my opinion as well.

I like Enberg’s voice and knowledge, but he just can’t see the game anymore. And as much as I love Dan, he’s not a real great color guy. In my opinion, Nantz-Simms are clearly the best.

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 10:12 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Somone said something about Enberg replacing Neely as Padres PBP

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 18, 2009 10:24 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

There was a Sullivan article in the UT about that. Gaslampball basically just picked up on that. I’m not that big on Neely, so any change wouldn’t bother me even if Mark Grant has to tell him that the guy was thrown out by 4 steps when Enberg calls a guy safe.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 10:27 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

I…..am not a fan of Neely. I love Mudcat though. So I’m all for it. Lewin does football and baseball so we know it can be done.

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 18, 2009 10:30 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

New blood in the booth, PLEASE

Not a fan of Grant or of Matt V. Stopped getting Channel 4, so I don’t know about Neely.

Just listen to the radio now. Now that JC’s duties have been reduced, I like him much more again. Small doses is good. The combo. they have now with Coleman, Masur, and Leitner is pretty good, I think.

On the football side, I’ve gotten more used to Bauer and like his enthusiasm and insights, even if he’s sometimes a bit of a fool. He and Lewin have a good rapport, and I like Lewin….

Vasgergian just came in with way too much over-the-top enthusiasm, which was like Lewin’s for calling football. Not appropriate for baseball, though. MV’s much better when he’s not trying to be a homer.

by jctess on Nov 20, 2009 12:41 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Anybody else like Collinsworth?

Arrogant, but has some good insights on the line play.

"Football is a physical sport, sometimes you have a disagreement on what's going on, and you have a discussion about it." Kris Dielman

by Brian (DaBolts) on Nov 18, 2009 11:12 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That guy is a total football junkie

There’s not much that happens in the NFL that he isn’t aware of and I think that combined with him being a former player is a perfect fit. Arrogance, in my opinion, is a good trait in a color commentator.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 11:19 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Collinsworth is the best.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 12:34 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Mos' Def

Collinsworth is excellent. Personally I like Nantz and Simms better than Enberg and Fouts, even though the latter two both have obvious ties to SD. They’re okay, though. I like(d) Fouts better for college games, actually. Enberg’s obviously a legend who’s no longer close to the top of his game….

by jctess on Nov 20, 2009 12:44 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I hate Simms. I like Nantz, though.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 20, 2009 12:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And I know this isn't the right place to put it

but HOW ON GOD’S GREEN EARTH is the Indy-Balt game a pick ’em? HOW???? Has anyone been watching the Colts? The Ravens? Does anyone remember the game last year where the Colts absolutely demolished the Ravens 35-3?

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 9:37 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

They are assuming that the Colts lose sooner or later?

I agree though i don’t think the Colts lose to the Ravens.

by Dude52089 on Nov 18, 2009 9:43 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

ESPN is showing the line as Colts (+2), which makes even less sense. The Colts & Ravens have played 5 times since 2004 and the Ravens have won zero of those games. Actually, it hasn’t even been close. The closest they’ve come is 9 points.

You can’t even argue that the Ravens have been great at home. They’re 3-1 with wins against the Chiefs, Browns and Broncos. Also, their secondary is atrocious.

There has to be some reason. Vegas doesn’t give away money. Manning is typically pretty awful against 3-4 defenses (see the SF game earlier this year), but I don’t know if that’s enough to swing the spread this far.

Also, I thought maybe it would be freezing or snowing or something. Nope. 50 degrees with a chance of rain.

Strange line. One of those lines to stay away from.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John (obviousman) on Nov 18, 2009 10:05 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Manning may struggle against 3-4 teams

but not against the Ravens. He clearly owns them, as you’ve pointed out.

Were bettors scared by the closeness of the Pats game?

Were they really that impressed by the Ravens’ “impressive” showing against the worst team in football?

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 10:14 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And especially last year

when the Colts weren’t as good and the Ravens weren’t as bad, Indianapolis blew them out of the stadium.

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 10:17 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

By DVOA

It’s a matchup of two pretty evenly matched teams. I not going to worry too much about the line.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 10:24 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well

according to DVOA, the Eagles are a way better team than we are.

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 10:34 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

and the Giants

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 18, 2009 10:34 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The Giants are barely better than the Chargers at this point

And trending downwards. And, it’s not like you can say after that game that the Chargers were definitively the better football. I’d say it’s more accurate to say that they were about the same (and by weighted DVOA their is only a half a percentage point difference between them).

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 10:46 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That is true

The Eagles don’t really play bad in their losses, but play really great in their wins. Historically, that is a sign of a better team than one like the Chargers who consistently plays about average.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 10:41 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Graph of Eagles Season

They played their second worst game against the Chargers. Those 3 high point games by the Eagles are rarely achieved by any team (I don’t the Chargers have had one game where they were even half that effective). DVOA thinks very highly of teams that can play at that level. Also, that game against Oakland, as bad as the Eagles were the Raiders still had to play above their established norm for the season in order to beat them.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 10:54 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

See

it seems to me that DVOA has the same drawback that the conventional stats it eschews has. Teams’ numbers get overinflated by really great performances against bad teams. The Eagles get their great DVOA numbers by really blowing out two bad teams and one average one that was on the road and reeling. Can you honestly watch them play and tell me you think the Eagles are a top 5 team in the league?

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 10:59 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Personally

I’d put the Saints, Cowboys, and Cardinals ahead of them (and that’s just in the NFC).

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 11:01 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll take the Eagles over the Cardinals

I think part of the problem is that DVOA takes a while to adjust to injuries or teams figuring out certain schemes. The Eagles were able to perform at such a high level because their defense was amazing. Injuries have hurt that and it changes how we look at them now. DVOA is adjusting though, their weighted DVOA is lower than their full season DVOA.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 11:03 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We'll have to agree to disagree on that one.

When I look at the two teams and take into account everything—players, coaches, injuries, scheme—I like the Cardinals more than the Eagles.

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 11:19 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You mentioned the Saints

Not exactly looking a lot better than the Eagles.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 11:06 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I saw that graph.

And it’s a fair point. They definitely haven’t played as well the last few games as they did early on. They blew out Detroit, Buffalo, Philly (when McNabb was out), and it inflated their DVOA.

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 11:14 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I understand the conceptual problem with that

But, it all comes down to what kind of team is more likely to get wins and losses and what teams can do better in the playoffs. Historically, the teams that “really great performances” tend to be the ones that do that.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 11:02 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sure.

Except when the middling teams play well down the stretch, like the Cardinals and Giants of the last couple years.

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 11:15 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The Cardinals' weighted DVOA last year

didn’t even get them in the upper half of the league in offense or defense at the end of the season. And then the switch went on and no one could stop them.

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 11:17 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

In an imperfect system

There will always be an exception. It’s not like there is a Cardinals type team every year. When was the last time a 9-7 team made the Super Bowl?

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 11:20 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually

I think if I understand some of my Statistics correctly, even in a perfect system there will be a margin of error that will allow for exceptions.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 11:22 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I understand

and I’m not really trying to say that I hate DVOA. I just think it’s one thing to take into consideration along with everything else.

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 11:23 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And all I was saying

Was that since it had its reasons for saying the two teams were close, I didn’t really want to waste too much effort trying to figure out Vegas’ reasons.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 11:24 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I have a headache!

This reminds me of a date where I sat at a table with four physics majors. I have no clue what you all are talking about!

"Live to love and love to live"!

by Desyrel on Nov 18, 2009 5:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

See

now you are just baiting me into explaining myself and I don’t think you really want that. Must… use… willpower…

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 5:14 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I'm just gonna sit here.

And smile. And pretend I understand.

"Live to love and love to live"!

by Desyrel on Nov 18, 2009 5:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Welcome to BFTB, btw.

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 18, 2009 5:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You know it!

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 18, 2009 5:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Rec’d for accuracy.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 6:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Because I'm a ditz . . .

What does that mean?

"Live to love and love to live"!

by Desyrel on Nov 18, 2009 6:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Rec

Pretty much i just think of it as recommend. When you like a comment or a fanpost you rec it. It is under actions, hope i helped clear it up for you.

by Dude52089 on Nov 18, 2009 9:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Rec’d = Recommended.

There’s a button under actions that says “rec.” If a comment gets enough recs it will turn green.

Sometimes after hitting the rec button one will feel the need to reply with “Rec’d” and possibly add why they “rec’d” it

Hope that helps.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 9:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes!

Got it! It’s kinda like a pat on the back.

"Live to love and love to live"!

by Desyrel on Nov 18, 2009 10:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Greened it.

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 19, 2009 6:50 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

?

There’s a joke here . . . and I’m too sleepy to figure it out.

"Live to love and love to live"!

by Desyrel on Nov 19, 2009 10:15 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Over at Mountain West Connection

there was this same kinda debate about TCU being favored by 16 over Utah, and a lot of people were in the same boat. Vegas sure as hell knew what they were doing. TCU covered and then some. Vegas sure knows what they are doing.

by Dude52089 on Nov 18, 2009 10:41 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That's cuz they are all Utah fans

I knew TCU would smoke them

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 18, 2009 10:45 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

True

But i had to think TCU wouldn’t walk all over them like they did.

by Dude52089 on Nov 18, 2009 10:49 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yea! More graphs.

Colts on the decline?

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 11:29 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

link the charger’s graph!

by Orz on Nov 18, 2009 11:53 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry

They only did them for the Patriots, Colts, Eagles and Saints this week. Maybe you get them with the premium database, but I didn’t buy that.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 12:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The best I could do ...

… is get the total DVOA for each week, which is the DVOA of the team over the whole season. That’s different than the graphs they produced above, which charts the DVOA performance each week. However, using that data, the Chargers are definitely on a solid upswing. Starting with the Denver game, yes the Chargers actually improved in that game despite the loss.

by creanium on Nov 18, 2009 1:59 PM PST up reply actions   2 recs

Let's hope the upward trend continues.

You’d rather be in this position than the team that started out hot and is faltering down the stretch.

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 2:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

NOW!

J/K cool charts.

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 18, 2009 2:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

LOL

How do we get -13.1% for not playing a game?

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 18, 2009 2:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Opponent adjustments

I assume these are snapshots from the weeks as they happen. If the calculations were re-run with the current opponent adjustments, the numbers would be different.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Wait a minute

no that’s not what I meant.

Now I don’t know what I’m saying!!!!

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 2:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

no

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 2:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Awww

:(

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 18, 2009 2:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

In my explanation before the chart, I pointed out that these numbers are the Total DVOA, which is the overall DVOA for the season. The charts posted above that are actually provided by FO are the weekly DVOA ratings for the actual game.

So basically, their charts show how the team was rated in each individual game. My charts show how the teams have been rated in the overall season after each week.

by creanium on Nov 18, 2009 2:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 2:38 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 2:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

There you go. Those are on the same scale as the other ones that were posted.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 2:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Whoa!

Where did those come from? Do you have magic? Are you a witch?

Burn him!

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 2:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I do.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 3:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Still had to make my own damn graphs in Excel, though.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 3:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I say ...

40 of us all pitch in $1 and purchase a premium membership to FO for members of the whole website to use.

:)

by creanium on Nov 18, 2009 3:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Even better

Richard gives us all his login and password!

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 3:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Not gonna happen.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 3:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

why don't we switch to a 4-3?

"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."

...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs

by notorioushbi on Nov 18, 2009 9:04 PM PST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

This is tired.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 9:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Then we’d be like digg and nobody wants to be like digg.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 9:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ok maybe people should just let it go then

by Dude52089 on Nov 18, 2009 9:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t think I can do that.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 9:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No talking about the people saying we should switch to 4-3.

by Dude52089 on Nov 18, 2009 9:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh. Then we agree.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 10:13 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yep

I’ve always been for staying the same, 4-3 would take years of getting personal we needed and this team just isn’t fit for the 4-3.

by Dude52089 on Nov 19, 2009 8:44 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

sarcasm...

doesn’t always translate in type…i was responding to wonko saying “burn him”

"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."

...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs

by notorioushbi on Nov 19, 2009 9:32 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

a nice attempt

But apparently, there was some missing context.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 19, 2009 1:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

it happens...

there’s always next time

"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."

...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs

by notorioushbi on Nov 20, 2009 10:13 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If I want a comment to disappear I can just delete/hide it.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 19, 2009 3:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We can’t make them disappear though :-p

by Dude52089 on Nov 19, 2009 3:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah I can do that on mwc connection

good fun.

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 19, 2009 4:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I miss not being able to delete my own comments when I’m not here, at Bloody Elbow or Bluebird Banter.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 19, 2009 4:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Would that be why all my comments disappear? :-p

by Dude52089 on Nov 19, 2009 5:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I’ve only ever hidden one of your comments.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 19, 2009 5:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think i remember which one. It was more of a joke since ’tec has that power on MWC.

by Dude52089 on Nov 19, 2009 6:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You’ve never had anything hidden anywhere except here. And I got that it was a joke.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 19, 2009 7:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You can see what’s been hidden?

by Dude52089 on Nov 19, 2009 9:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 19, 2009 11:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

i had wondered...

about that…my erroneous attempt with a chuck norris photo got removed and i wasn’t sure if i could do that myself or not

"that wasn't a very good start to us getting our lives together. i didn't even go to work today."

...ya'll are brutalizing me... ronnie dobbs

by notorioushbi on Nov 20, 2009 10:12 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

(cough cough) censorship...ahem ahem...

I think I take the cake on hidden comments.I probably have made like 20 some odd innapropiate comments.

HUSTLE MADE ENT. NEW TRACK...CHECK FOR IT...NOTHING BUT THAT KILLA CALI FIRE FO SHO!!! http://www.myspace.com/jayoh1ne

by Gorditoe1 on Nov 20, 2009 3:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It's really interesting that our DVOA for the PIT game

was positive, whereas it was negative for the DEN game. Seemed like we played better against Denver than against Pittsburgh.

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 3:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The offense and special teams were both really good in the Pittsburgh game. Against Denver our offense and defense were both mediocre while our ST was garbage.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 3:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We’ve still only had one game where our defense was above average and that was at Kansas City. The Giants and Dolphins games were both almost average.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 3:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We’ve managed to stop the run against Denver and Philadelphia and stop the pass against Miami and Kansas City.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 3:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Did one good 4th quarter at Pittsburgh

make up for the three preceding quarters of suck?

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 3:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Apparently.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 3:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Part of that is because we sucked so bad earlier in the game that we ran relatively fewer plays.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 3:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Also, you have to take into account the opponent adjustment.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 3:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

for comparison ...

Here’s Denver’s chart for comparison. They saw only a slight uptick in DVOA after the game against us, and there was an uptick during their bye week, presumably because the league as a whole got slightly weaker.

by creanium on Nov 18, 2009 2:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

They kicked that bye's ass!

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 18, 2009 2:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That actually may have been partly due

To the Chargers getting better.

NE, Dallas and Cincy probably all got better too.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 2:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Question on the DVOA rankings

I am trying to get a better grasp on these rankings each week, if you have time to respond here is a question I am having with them. Not sure if I can word the question very well but here goes.

I understand that a team’s DVOA must be adjusted each week based on how the teams that they have played do, but do they take into account the “trend” or “streak” that a team is on?
For example you stated that the Broncos rating may have gone up based on how the Chargers played. I understand this point, but should a teams early season victory over a team that was not playing well at the time become more valuable as that team starts to play better later in the season?
As the charts point out some teams are playing better now, some teams are playing worse now. It seems like a win over a team when they are playing well should be worth more than a win over that same team when it is having a bad stretch of their season. Perhaps this is taken into account and I am not understanding yet.

Thanks for any help you can give me on this.

by JeromeB on Nov 19, 2009 8:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It doesn't work the way you are describing it

I think they played around with trying to account for teams on hot streaks, but the problem is that it doesn’t correlate with winning as well as when you do it without that. It’s most likely a sample size thing. It’s kind of the same thing as in baseball, if you have a hitter on a hot streak and try to use his hot streak numbers to predict his next at bat you won’t end up as accurate doing that as you would if you used his season number or his numbers over the last three years.

They do, however, have a number called Weighted DVOA that they start showing this time of year. It basically weights a team’s more recent games higher than their earlier games. I think that by the end of the season it ends up being a better predictor of playoff success than the season DVOA, but don’t quote me on that. It’s not what you were looking for, but I thought I’d throw it out there.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 20, 2009 10:42 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I understand the sample size

part of it, but it seems like a win over the Titans early in the year (when they were a disaster) should not become more valuable as the Titans pull it together a little bit later in the year.

I think with individual player stats like baseball batting average it makes sense to go with as large a sample size as possible. But for putting a value on how a team is playing, or how valuable a win over a team is, I think to big of a sample size just waters down the value of the DVOA. The way that you explain the Weighted DVOA makes me think that I should put more “weight” on that number when reading their rankings.

by JeromeB on Nov 20, 2009 11:49 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm just saying

That even though common sense says one thing, the numbers don’t bear out that the “hot streak factor” actually helps the numbers get better. I think the problem would be how can you tell a true hot streak from a team that’s just playing a couple good games that had some lucky bounces and how do you tell where the hot streak ends and begins. But, bottom line it needs to help the numbers become a better representation of how well a team can win and lose, and if the hot streaks don’t help do that then they won’t get used.

However, the system is a work-in-progress. So maybe there will be a date when their is a better definition of a hot streak or a better way to different the hot team from the lucky team. When that happens and it improves the numbers, they’ll add it.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 20, 2009 12:28 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Your patience is appreciated

as I think I am doing a terrible job of explaining my question.

I am not trying to say that a team on a “hot streak” should be given an “elevated” DVOA based on the supposed hot streak.

My concern is if you beat a team when they are playing poorly, and then they turn things around later in the season. Does your early season win over that team become more valuable as they improve later in the season?
Or the opposite, if you beat a team that is playing well, then they have some major injuries and start to play poorly, does your win become less valuable because of this?

I guess my question is: Does the value of your win or loss to a team continue to change over the entire 16 weeks of the season? If it does I don’t think I like it (not that FO cares) I am thinking that perhaps they could take an average of the two weeks before you play a team, the week you play them and the two weeks after and that would be the final value of your victory of loss in that game. It would at least better capture how the team was playing at the time you played them as opposed to an entire season average.

Once again I am trying to understand these rankings better and your help is appreciated, if I am asking to many long questions that don’t make sense feel free to ignore me I will not be offended.

by JeromeB on Nov 20, 2009 1:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 20, 2009 1:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

By "No"

I am going to take it that how your opponent plays vs anybody but you has no effect at all on your DVOA. I am not sure I like that either.
Damn I am getting more confused by the day.

by JeromeB on Nov 20, 2009 1:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

By “no,” I meant that when you play them doesn’t matter.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 20, 2009 1:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

I feel better about that answer now.
But don’t you think it should matter when you play them? I know that it would be difficult to put into a formula, but when you play a team during a season can have a big impact on your chances of winning.

I think I feel another “no” coming on.

by JeromeB on Nov 20, 2009 1:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

My understanding is that they’ve tried that and it made the system less predictive rather than more.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 20, 2009 3:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Question for you guys from a gambler

How did DVOA do last week?

I’m wondering if it can be used as a guide to beat the spread.

by Freddyd on Nov 18, 2009 11:41 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

They actually tracked this a little

I’m going to say it was 4 years ago. Basically, it’s not good if you are going to bet every game. But, I have seen some commentors on there that say they use it to make money. I think they came up with some guidelines for when DVOA is basically telling you its a good bet (but not how much to bet). I suggest just putting up that same comment in one of the DVOA Rankings articles and see what responses you get.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 11:51 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Heh

Incidentally, the Broncos are 2.5 dogs at their own stadium this Sunday.

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 18, 2009 11:53 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ick

That seems like bad karma for a game that breaks the tie for the divisional lead.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 12:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

karma shmarma

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John (obviousman) on Nov 18, 2009 1:46 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I found the article I was thinking of

link

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 12:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

link

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 12:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

As of Oct. 22 ATS this season

Football Outsiders was:
High confidence games: 2-2
Med confidence games: 11-15
Low confidence games: 32-28

I do think the DVOA rankings are a useful tool in helping someone pick winners ATS, but used by itself you will probably lose your money.

by JeromeB on Nov 18, 2009 12:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Currently...

High: 3-6, .333
Med: 16-24, .400
Low: 49-44-2, .526

Not very impressive. They actually get better the less confident they are.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 1:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Much better straight up...

High: 31-6, .838
Med: 23-22, .511
Low: 35-25, .583

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 1:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Straight up record still not that great

Most of your average football fans can hit at 60% without the point spread.

by JeromeB on Nov 18, 2009 1:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think their pre-season projections were off by more than usual this year.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Nov 18, 2009 1:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Who would have thought the bungles would be good?

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 18, 2009 2:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hopefully LJ screws them up by the time they get here

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 18, 2009 2:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

FO

gave them a 26% chance at being a 9+ win team.

By comparison. They gave the Chargers a 99% chance of being a 9+ win.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 2:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

PFT and Florio

actually predicted they’d be good. They didn’t think this good, though.

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 2:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

They were absurdly hurt by injuries last year

Of course, they aren’t doing so great this year. It’s just taking longer to manifest and the QB is still on the field. It’s a big dropoff from Palmer to Fitzpatrick (and remains big with J.T. O’Sullivan).

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 2:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If we don't win 3 of our next 7....

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Nov 18, 2009 2:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

KC, @CLE, and WAS should be definite Ws.

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 2:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think what I really meant

was that if we keep getting better, their prediction of 11+ wins will come true.

by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 18, 2009 2:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

lmao

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 18, 2009 1:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I almost forgot to thank you Wonko

You introduced me to DVOA and I think it has helped me evaluate games each week.

by JeromeB on Nov 18, 2009 1:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

After week 7 they were right at 50%

for the season (per coastalbronco). Throw in the vig and you are losing your money.
I do not believe that there is a system or formula that can do any better than someone who is really into the NFL. There are too many small things to take into consideration each week.

by JeromeB on Nov 18, 2009 12:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

omg he said it!

Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play

by Axion on Nov 18, 2009 12:07 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Haha its happening again! Perfect.

This blog has devolved into UT like, uncerebral blabber

by soulSD on Nov 18, 2009 1:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

wut

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 18, 2009 2:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Last year, at this time, the Bolts were Left 4 Dead

Don’t you remember from this classic throwback thread?

Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play

by Axion on Nov 18, 2009 3:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm totally making one

for Denver off the “Parish” level splash screen.

This blog has devolved into UT like, uncerebral blabber

by soulSD on Nov 18, 2009 5:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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