Game Preview: Philadelphia Eagles at San Diego Chargers
Is anyone else worried that this might be a let-down game? The Chargers are coming off a huge victory against the Giants in New York and are returning home to play an Eagles team that's on the verge of turmoil (aren't they always?) after losing to the Dallas Cowboys. The Bolts have the momentum and many people are picking them to win. Here are the two things that are worrying me about this game:
- Everyone knows how big the Broncos game is. If the Chargers are going to make a run at the division championship, they need to win that game. It's been a focus of the fans all week and the Eagles have almost become an afterthought. Let us hope Norv has been able to keep this team focused on this week.
- Although the team has been improved since the bye week, the only team they've soundly defeated during that stretch is the Chiefs. The Chargers were pushed around again by the Raiders and needed a last-minute drive to beat the struggling Giants. The main reason for these close wins is the offense going silent for long periods of time in the second half. My thinking is, if the offense can die for an entire quarter it can stay silent much longer.
Doing each one of these game previews, I usually bring everything back to the "worst case scenario". This is really how I think about everything in the future. Usually the worst case scenario for the Chargers is a shootout, which they can usually win based off of the strength of their offense. However, I don't know that the Chargers could beat the Eagles in a shootout.
I don't know, I have a lot of doubts about this game. I know we have momentum and good feelings, but that doesn't win football games. Let's break down the stats and see what they tell us.
When the Eagles Have the Ball
Off. Yds/Game: 15th
Off. Pts/Game: 4th
3rd Down %: 22nd
Time of Possession: 26th
Pass Yds/Game: 15th
40+ Yd Pass Plays: 10 (1st)
Rush Yds/Game: 17th
Rush Yds/Att: 4.7 (5th)
All of these stats add up to something very simple: Stop DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Obviously the Eagles struggle to put together long drives and score mostly on big plays. Luckily for Chargers fans, stopping the big plays has been a specialty of the defense (and especially the secondary) this season. Stopping 3rd down conversions is another story...
via twiggs.org
Def. Yds/Game: 11th
Def. Pts/Game: 20th
3rd Down %: 28th
Pass Yds/Game: 5th
40+ Yd Pass Plays: 2 (5th)
Rush Yds/Game: 26th
Rush Yds/Att: 4.2 (13th)
Advantage: Tie. Coming from somebody who lives in Philly and has watched a fair share of Philly games, there's no way of predicting what will happen. There's a 50% chance that Donovan McNabb is incredibly accurate and Brian Westbrook is unstoppable. There's also a 50% chance that McNabb can't complete a pass and Westbrook can't get any significant yards (yes, even against the Chargers "warm butter" run defense).
Luckily for the Chargers, and for us fans, this is a strength vs. strength matchup. The Eagles offense will test the Bolts' secondary, which has been good all year and is getting better with addition of a real pass rush. That gives me more hope than if San Diego were facing a team that relies heavily on a power running attack.
When the Chargers Have the Ball
Off. Yds/Game: 17th
Off. Pts/Game: 9th
3rd Down %: 12th
Time of Possession: 28th
Pass Yds/Game: 7th
40+ Yd Pass Plays: 8 (5th)
Rush Yds/Game: 32nd
Rush Yds/Att: 32nd
It's kindof amazing that the Chargers are 5-3 and surging with the league's worst running game.
via www.eagles-football-fansite.info
Def. Yds/Game: 10th
Def. Pts/Game: 8th
3rd Down %: 6th
Pass Yds/Game: 11th
40+ Yd Pass Plays: 3 (9th)
Rush Yds/Game: 10th
Rush Yds/Att: 3.6 (4th)
Advantage: Eagles. While the Eagles defense isn't bad, they're ranked about as well as the Giants defense, they lost their nickel and dime cornerbacks during this week. That is a weakness that can be exploited with Legedu Naanee and maybe even Kassim Osgood. That can be paired with the height disadvantage (all of the Philly CBs are 5'10") for some opening in the passing game. One thing is for sure, Philip Rivers will not hesitate to throw to his tall WRs downfield if they're covered one-on-one.
The key to this game is Nick Hardwick. Rivers won't survive against the Eagles' complicated blitzes without somebody on the line that can figure out where the blitz is coming from. If Hardwick plays, there's a much better chance of keeping the QB upright and throwing downfield.
Fancy Stats (DVOA Rankings)
Offense: 16th
Pass Offense: 9th
Rush Offense: 30th
Defense: 23rd
Pass Defense: 14th
Rush Defense: 27th
Offense: 12th
Pass Offense: 15th
Rush Offense: 9th
Defense: 1st
Pass Defense: 1st
Rush Defense: 12th
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89 comments
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Comments
The Eagles are very good,
So losing can’t be considered a letdown-Philly losing to Oakland on the other hand; that sure as hell was a letdown.
I’m not to worried about a lack of focus ruining us here
Defense, Im talking to you! You want to kill this Osweiler fella...Come on defense, FOCUS god dammit!
I respect you Juju, you and your gorgeous brilliance
by CaDuck on Nov 13, 2009 4:57 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
WOW! they lost to da raiders
at least norv turner hasn’t lost to dem
by BFTB_zach on Nov 13, 2009 7:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Eagles can dominate..
but hopefully won’t. You’re right about the focus on Denver. One game at a time, Norv. You can only win the games you are ready for. The Eagles are coming and there needs to be a few things to focus on. One being that a victory will come through 3 and 4 receiver sets against Philly’s weakend pass defense, and if Hardwick is back, running on singleback formations and hoping LT or Sproles gets a hole to hit for an unexpected 7 yard gain on the ground. Clock control will be key, if Philly’s defense can get worn down, then our defense can put an aggressive beating on Mcnabb and press coverage will keep Jackson in check. I really only see two endings for this game. A well executed game plan giving the bolts a 31-17 victory, or an unfocused and mistake prone team giving up 28 points and only scoring 20.
by Superduperboltman on Nov 13, 2009 6:08 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
The blitz packages Chargers use...
in a way lend themselves to getting beat deep. I know it sounds a little strange, but the pressure we have been getting lately was all initiated by the threat of a safety blitz. The problem this week is that Eagles have a couple guys that are willing to go deep on any play. If the safety gets caught at the line too early, gets picked up by the blocker too fast or simply can’t make the sack, there WILL be openings in the deep coverage (since we often run a zone based deep cover). I have a feeling we might see a mix up in coverage on a safety blitz for some deep, and I mean really deep, yardage.
by riversformvp on Nov 13, 2009 6:35 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
A lot of times on those blitzes there were 3 safeties on the field. They’d blitz Weddle or Ellison and usually bring in Paul Oliver to fill the spot left open. This, plus great coverage by the Chargers CBs, is why the Giants were not able to throw deep even though they’re one of the best long-passing teams in the league.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John (obviousman) on Nov 13, 2009 6:41 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah.
Also, Rivera is calling more man coverage on the back end instead of zone schemes. As you say, Jammer, Cro, and co. have been doing a good job covering man-to-man, allowing us to use these DB blitzes. Hopefully that continues.
We're boned.
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 13, 2009 7:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I feel better in man cover
because I know Jammer and Cromartie can at least keep up with the fastest guys. Zone makes me nervous because the opposing offence always seems to find the seam just when they need too. I am really worried about Jackson or Maclin running posts and flys down the center of the field and finding one of those holes. If its Gregory or Weddle coming up on the blitz I think its going to leave some gaps deep in the middle of the coverage. All the same, if the blitz gets there in time, its a moot point :)
by riversformvp on Nov 13, 2009 6:52 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Broncos for me are far off in the future...I don't know why
John is probably more worried about the Eagles because he is a known Eagles lover and maybe overestimates their strength slightly.
The Chargers have of one of the best QBs in the league and one of the top WR cores in the league. The Eagles are decimated in the secondary which is now filled with practice squadders.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 13, 2009 7:09 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
He does love the eagles...
I agree 100% with you Sam, almost to the point where I could have seen him wearing a eagles t-shirt under is LT jersey at the giants game!
I totally agree that the advantage at QB and WR goes to the Chargers. McNabb is only successful when he can exploit the long ball and dump it off to Westbrook. McNabb being great and dumping the ball off to Westbrook doesn’t scare me that much. Andy Reid will beat himself on Sunday. If they Chargers let him.
What does worry me is this: good defensive coordinators know that San Diego cannot run the football right now. The reason San Diego hasn’t beaten anyone soundly simple; it is because they haven’t been able to control a single game on the ground. I wouldn’t want to be playing Philly after the lost to Dallas, if i couldn’t run the ball and control the clock. A balanced Attack against the eagles, will secure a Victory going into next week. Plain and Simple (we also know without Cooley and Portis, the skins have a 0% shot of helping the chargers out)!
But i would be the first to mention I hate Filthadelphia!
by Blueblood27 on Nov 13, 2009 7:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Plain and Simple (we also know without Cooley and Portis, the skins have a 0% shot of helping the chargers out)!
0% chance?
by SJO on Nov 16, 2009 3:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Eagles are banged up in the secondary, but to this point in the season they’ve been the best defense in football, so I think it’s more than reasonable to expect them to be a difficult opponent.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Nov 13, 2009 11:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Best defense in football by a weighted average maybe
Not by total defense.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 13, 2009 11:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I prefer the play-by-play metrics that are adjusted for opponent and down/distance to the raw yardage totals.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Nov 13, 2009 1:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They are good metrics but they aren't perfect.
They said we should have lost to the Giants but we didn’t. Gotta take everything into consideration.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 13, 2009 5:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Of course they’re not perfect. No stat is.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Nov 13, 2009 9:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Also John
apparently it’s been decreed that Hardwick will not be playing. He’s not as far along as they’d hoped he’d be this week.
We're boned.
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 13, 2009 7:47 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I heard he was going to play, but had a setback in practice.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Nov 13, 2009 11:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That could be.
I’m going off memory of what Acee said yesterday.
We're boned.
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 13, 2009 11:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
With the lack of depth that the Eagles have in both the DB’s and LB’s, I really hope Turner runs some plays like that one last week where Tomlinson motioned out wide and I believe Sproles was left as single-back. There are all sorts of ways to get big play guys matched up against a rookie DB or slow and old Jeremiah Trotter.
Gates could have a field day unless they bracket him, and it they do that Jackson and Floyd should just run fade and stops all game and out jump the corners.
On defense I would rotate fresh Linemen and Merriman to do nothing but bull rush the LT, who is hurting, for at least the first half and just run him out of the game.
by flounder2 on Nov 13, 2009 8:45 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
My sentiments exactly.
The great thing about having an airborne team is that while your opponent can scheme for you, they can’t use game situations to take away what you do best. This should be a shootout.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Nov 13, 2009 9:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
John, you live in Philly??
My condolences
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Nov 13, 2009 8:56 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Akeen Jordan is OUT
Peters is Questionable. Didn’t practice Wed or Thurs.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 13, 2009 9:31 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Sweet
Although I think it’s Akeem
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John (obviousman) on Nov 13, 2009 9:36 AM PST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Look out for Brent Celek
Everyone here is talking about Jackson and Maclin, but the Eagles, between issues running the ball and a banged-up O-line, won’t have the opportunity to attack downfield if our pass rush plays the way it has the last 3 weeks.
TE Brent Celek scares me to death in this game. He’s going to be the short-intermediate option for McNabb if he’s under pressure – if we’re bringing big blitzes with man-to-man, and Celek gets the ball, he can do a lot of damage.
On offense, like I said in the review of the Giants game, I can’t imagine the Eagles bringing pressure in ways that we haven’t seen before; we’ve already seen the Ravens, Steelers, Broncos, and Giants. That being said, I really wish Hardwick were playing – against a heavy-blitz defense, a C like Hardwick might be worth an extra 7 points.
"As a confirmed melancholic, I can testify that the best and maybe only antidote for melancholia is *action*. However, like most melancholics, I suffer also from sloth." - Edward Abbey.
by Jeff (sliderockmpc) on Nov 13, 2009 9:50 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
They might blitz less because of banged up linebackers and unexperienced secondary
To give them some extra help. I also think the Eagles banged up OL will give Shaun and Shawne the opportunities to get a lot of pressure on McNabb if not some sacks. I guess I’m optimistic.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 13, 2009 10:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Another reason I'm not worried about the Eagles' blitz
All of the player shuffling and inexperience you mentioned might force the Eagles to simplify some things on defense – or risk miscommunication that will give Rivers opportunities.
"As a confirmed melancholic, I can testify that the best and maybe only antidote for melancholia is *action*. However, like most melancholics, I suffer also from sloth." - Edward Abbey.
by Jeff (sliderockmpc) on Nov 13, 2009 10:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not expecting a ton of blitzes
Against teams with very good QBs and suspect OLs, the Eagles tend to dial back the jailbreaks somewhat. Given their personnel woes in the secondary, they may need to keep their linebackers mostly in coverage. I know we got beat on those delayed interior blitzes by Denver, but that was a “fool me once” kind of thing.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Nov 13, 2009 11:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Interestingly enough
we haven’t been that bad against TEs the last couple weeks. Boss only had two catches for 17 yards (though one was a TD).
We're boned.
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 13, 2009 10:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He also missed a few plays after Weddle crushed him.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Nov 13, 2009 11:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
As a fellow "pessimist"...
I mean “sensibilist,” I am a bit concerned that the Chargers are capable of and prone to reverting back to bad habits and form that they displayed in earlier games. The hope is that they confine those usual hiccups to one quarter (preferrably the 1st) and not to two or three. Or four. Houdini rarely played Philadephia. Too many skeptics.
by Andy (allfield) on Nov 13, 2009 10:52 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
To beat the Eagles you need to
1) have a good tight end who can get down the seam, that beats the blitz
2)have a good blocking running back who can pick up the blitz
3)have a good screen game both running back and wide out.
4)have a qb who can get rid of the ball quick and read the defense.
Chargers have all those do they not?
by Musiccitynorm on Nov 13, 2009 10:53 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
#2 is a little questionable
but yes, I’d say that we have the rest. Both LT & Sproles have been known to whiff on pass coverage.
Quick slants, screens, & spread formations will help to negate the blitz. I’m particularly leaning towards the spread with all of the injuries & resulting inexperience in the Eagles’ secondary.
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Nov 13, 2009 11:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Gentlemen, aren't we forgetting one important factor here?
The Raiders beat the Eagles this year.
Not that I’m overly confident, there are aspects of this game that scare the crap out of me, but if the Raiders can find a way to beat the Eagles, I think Turner and Rivera have been studying that game and looking into what the Raiders did right.
I’m not so worried about the Chargers looking past this game. The fans are and the media is, but I have not gotten any indication from the Chargers players and coaches themselves that they’re not 100% focused on this week.
by creanium on Nov 13, 2009 11:11 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Everyone
Is saying how horrible the Raiders are, yet, I’m convinced if that had ANY kind of a QB at all we’d be 0-2 against them. If they somehow develop a QB during the off season then next year will be interesting. Even with the worst QB in the leadge ( wasn’t he rated 33rd at one point cause a backup was better somewhere?) they still came close to handling us.
by ArksnBolts on Nov 13, 2009 1:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They’re a bottom 10 rushing offense, too. Granted that’s partially attributable to their lousy passing game. Their defense is also terrible, though. They stop the run about as well as the Chargers do and their pass defense isn’t as good.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Nov 13, 2009 1:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sad but true
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Nov 14, 2009 5:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Gimme a break!
The Raiders have poor run-defense, but otherwise their problems are all with the passing offense, which is the single worst aspect of the game to suck in. They get good pressure with their front four, and their secondary is above average. Their run game would look very good if they had a passing game. Their special teams are solid. If the Raiders had a decent QB and some decent receivers, or just a good QB, they’d be a good team. If they had both, they’d be a playoff contender. Their OL isn’t great in pass protection, but a QB with a good eye and quick release would be able to make do.
The reason they get spanked is that they can’t throw the ball and can’t stop the run, so if you get a lead they can’t come back. The reasons San Diego didn’t spank them in Week 8 are that San Diego can’t run, and Jackson’s fumble, which put the Raiders in range. Oakland put up 16 points in that game because San Diego gave them good field position on turnovers, and Oakland can often pick up a first down or two on their way out. They still only got one TD. Don’t expect to see a whole lot more VJ fumbles. The running woes may continue, but this team has a whole lot of ways to win without a productive run game.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Nov 14, 2009 9:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Peters didn't practice again today.
There are some definite holes in that team on both sides. Akeem Jordan is definitely out. There are going to be some match-ups we can exploit. Just have to limit those big plays and get to McNabb.
We're boned.
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 13, 2009 11:41 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
This is the kind of game you could make two arguments about.
The Eagles could win because…
1) SD can’t run. Philly can get to the passer.
2) Philly’s deep ball may not get much use, but the threat will improve their run-game, which is already ok.
3) San Diego has a critical division game coming up.
4) Philly just lost a critical division game and thrives on adversity.
5) Even counting that Oakland game, the Eagles have generally been good on the West Coast for the last several years.
The Chargers could win because…
1) Philly’s got some secondary issues and San Diego has a scary passing game.
2) Philly’s OL isn’t any better than SD’s, and SD’s pass rush seems to be getting good again.
3) Philly is a big play team, and SD’s defense doesn’t give up many big plays.
4) McNabb may be a very good QB, but he’s also a choke artist, and the Chargers can always stay in any game.
5) San Diego is at home after winning on the east coast. That’s a recipe for success.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Nov 13, 2009 11:42 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't say that the odds of the Redskins winning are 0%
I can’t find the stat but, i have heard that teams coming off Monday night games that have to travel the next week have a 20% win pct? (Can someone confirm that stat?)
The Redskins Defense is good and are playing at home.
Their offense finally started to show some life last week in the second half.
It’s not entirely impossible!
by Freddyd on Nov 13, 2009 11:59 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
That stat isn't true,
At least this year,
Teams that had a home Monday night game and then had to travel are 3-3.
With wins from Oakland, Minnesota, and the chargers. Losses coming from New England, Miami and Dallas.
Teams that have played on Monday night and then had to travel(i.e an away game next week regardless of whether they were home or away on Monday night) are 4-3, with the only other win coming from Indianapolis.
Teams records after Monday night games are 8-5.
Don’t know where they got their stats from.
Chargers = Aztecs
We have proof.
by Dude52089 on Nov 13, 2009 12:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
this will be blowout.
The Eagles are coming off a monday night lose and traveling to the west coast. They have TWO new cornerbacks this week. We have floyd and jackson. They’ll be forced to drop linebackers to support and play their safties deep and Gates will have a field day. This could be the game LT finally gets some yards. cos it’s at home and teams are basically now game planning for the wide recievers, gates, and screens. LT gets no respect anymore from a gameplan point of view. giants bought a run at the line last week and it cost them a touchdown. eagles will forget about LT and he could just come on. Acee was also talking about how he watched the film and both merriman and phillips were destroying the giants. We’re back, blow out!!!!! I’m usually pessimistic. BLOWOUT!!!! convincing win!!! go gates!
by nicklusk on Nov 13, 2009 12:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Eagles are coming off a sunday night loss.
Chargers = Aztecs
We have proof.
by Dude52089 on Nov 13, 2009 1:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
this will be blowout.
ill remember you said that
R.I.P Jim Johnson 1941-2009
we will miss you Jim Johnson, thank you for everything you done to the eagles defense making them the best of the best, RIP JJ...
by EAGLE_MAN71 on Nov 14, 2009 7:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
it wasnt a blowout but it sure was a win , congrats on your win charger fans ..good luck to you on your future games ….
R.I.P Jim Johnson 1941-2009
we will miss you Jim Johnson, thank you for everything you done to the eagles defense making them the best of the best, RIP JJ...
by EAGLE_MAN71 on Nov 15, 2009 10:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
A few experts all predicting a Redskins win
Perhaps a trap game before the big divisional match-up
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 13, 2009 5:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Redskins defense isn't too bad
and Betts looked better last week than Portis has. I wouldn’t be surprised if they pulled off the upset.
by murpho on Nov 14, 2009 11:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I just hope gates stays healthy and doesn't get hit hard in the middle of the field
career day for gates, stay safe!!!
by nicklusk on Nov 13, 2009 12:39 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
What makes me nervous is that we're favored
I don’t like it when this team is favored against a good opponent. Is that just superstition?
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Nov 13, 2009 1:51 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
It's just -1
Essentially a pick-em.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 13, 2009 5:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
SDUT: SM, SP both "questionable"
Lights says he’ll play.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Nov 13, 2009 2:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
meh
we still got english hes almost like a lights out too
by BFTB_zach on Nov 13, 2009 8:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He's still developing.
But definitely has potential.
We're boned.
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 13, 2009 8:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bolts-Burros preview
by drowningboy on Nov 13, 2009 3:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Exactly what our team shouldn't be doing
The Eagles are a good team don’t overlook them. When its time to play the Donkies then we worry about them.
Chargers = Aztecs
We have proof.
by Dude52089 on Nov 13, 2009 4:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
One important fact that you forgot...
The Eagles lost to the Raiders… let that sink in for a second… JaMarcus Russell and the Raiders beat the Eagles… this isn’t a gimme, we shouldn’t overlook them by any means, but we should be confident that we can beat this team.
by San Diego Viking on Nov 13, 2009 4:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Well
If memory serves the Bolts needed a last second TD in our first game.
"Football is a physical sport, sometimes you have a disagreement on what's going on, and you have a discussion about it." Kris Dielman
by Brian (DaBolts) on Nov 13, 2009 5:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Football Outsiders loves Philly over SD
They are not flawless, but they have picked Philly to win the game outright (in their premium section). For the category of games that their models say will predict outright winners, they are like 90% accurate this season.
If I recall, Philly has always seemed to underperform their DVOA rankings. PHL is 32.9%, while SD is 0.2%. The higher the % the better, so this looks lopsided by those numbers.
According to their stats the big advantage comes in that their D is much, much better (top ranked) than ours. Our offensives are similar.
I am skittishly hopeful that our O has under-performed, that PR in a committed pass-first offense could over-match almost any D (maybe not Pitt). I just hope we use draws and runs out of pass-looking sets to get some run yardage. But then I have visions of yet another sack of PR and the passing game stalling.
I wanted to point out that while they lost to OAK, they did beat…; but they have had a soft schedule, Wins: KC, TAM, CAR, NYG at home, WDC. Looks a lot like SD’s wins (KC, OAK x2, NYG, MIA). These are two similar looking teams, ones that can beat good teams and yet also lose to poor ones.
If we do win this, I will start to believe in this resurgence. I am hoping very hard, but it feels a bit like hope. I remember two of the three wins are KC, OAK. A NYG team in disarray. We got dominated in that game statistically, and only a botched FG and horrible goal line play-calling with holding call saved us.
If we beat PHL, this will be the best team we have beaten this year. I hope we do it, but anyone predicting blow outs in our favor are forgetting we beat two bad teams and deserved to lose the third game.
by jayman66 on Nov 13, 2009 6:13 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Thanks, Jayman66
I think your last paragraph says a lot.
by Hank44 on Nov 13, 2009 6:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You people are a little too obsessed with FO
Yes, it is a very good system but even it has its flaws and is probably wrong the same amount of times it is right. It is just one thing to look at in a universe of knowledge; you can’t put too much credence in one thing. Other metrics, systems, and opinions have their merit too FO isn’t omniscient or the only worthwhile thing to look at.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 13, 2009 6:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not really sure what weight to give it.
On one hand it’s probably better than using raw stats. But on the other it clearly isn’t perfect.
I think that they have an irrational dislike of Turner, and in some cases it affects their predictions and opinions in regards to the Chargers.
We're boned.
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 13, 2009 6:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
they are far from definitive
They have a weak record of their picks against the line, so not as though they have it all figured out, so that the odds makers say we are the favorites, that says something.
I am just pointing out that PHL looks like a good team according to one set of thoughtful though imperfect statistics and we have yet to beat a good team this year. MIA and NYG are OK teams, and we should have beaten Baltimore, but Denver and Pittsburgh made us look very bad. I am just hoping that they are somehow learning and getting better.
by jayman66 on Nov 13, 2009 6:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not the mention they don't take into account injuries
Or any abstract things like momentum or trends.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 13, 2009 7:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
One thing I wonder about
is how Green Bay’s defensive DVOA is so high. I get it’s adjusted for game situation—down, distance, etc.—but isn’t it supposed to be adjusted for opponent as well? They’ve played really poorly against good teams (Cincy, Minny) and relatively well against crappy teams (Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis, Chicago), and also played terribly against Tampa.
That’s really similar to us, yet somehow they still rank way up there in the top ten in total DVOA, offensive DVOA, and defensive DVOA.
Doesn’t make sense to me.
We're boned.
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 13, 2009 6:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
hard to know
I just read their summary of their methodology. They try to measure the actual play outcome vs. the NFL average of that outcome, adjusted for quality of opponent. If, for example, on first down the NFL typically got 3.5 yards against a Pittsburgh-quality defense, and your team got 5 on a play, you are above average and your DVOA goes up. There is more to it than that, but I think they like it because it allows you to get granular, measure every play and situation. You can create DVOA for third and long, second and short, etc. This, apparently, allows you to analyze your teams strengths and weaknesses better than aggegate measures. But they even say aggregate measures, like power rankings, may be a better predictor of a team’s success. So who knows.
by jayman66 on Nov 13, 2009 6:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah.
I mean, some of these things just don’t make sense. Like the Green Bay example.
And just because teams have high DVOA’s don’t always directly translate into winning games. Miami is 3-5, and are 11th overall, ahead of several winning teams. Baltimore and Green Bay are both .500 teams, and each are in the top ten.
We're boned.
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 13, 2009 7:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There is definetly a seperation from reality.
e.g. the Giants were supposed to win, and even though they may have dominated the stats, they didn’t win. The problem is I think, is that DVOA assumes a perfect statistical world where everything else is equal, and that just isn’t the case in reality.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 13, 2009 7:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely.
And statistics, no matter how advanced or weighted, can’t include intangibles, which play a real role in sports.
We're boned.
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 13, 2009 7:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think DVOA has some of the same flaws as the raw stats it eschews.
Teams can get their position inflated by blowing out bad teams (Green Bay) while winning teams see their ranking depressed by eking out victories against good teams (San Diego).
Also, it still doesn’t seem to me that it can really capture the actual game situation, though it tries mightily to do so.
I agree that it’s a good data point, and in ways better than raw stats. But it’s still flawed, and important to use your eyes and common sense.
We're boned.
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 13, 2009 8:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
I’m just saying that some people treat it as if it were gospel, and I think that is misguided.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 13, 2009 8:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with that.
One of my problems comes with the guys who run the site, who despite their disclaimers that their stats aren’t perfect, act as if they are so.
We're boned.
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 13, 2009 8:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The aggregate measures say that the teams are almost identical
Which is more of my feeling fwiw. I just don’t see Philly beat THAT much better than us. Plus, I can’t take any team seriously that lost to the Raiders. That’s like one of those, “C’mon Man!”
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 13, 2009 7:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
they seem very similar to me as well, despite FO
just hoping for a win, baby. especially sweet would be a well-played, solid/dominant win. that would say, to me, that we had turned some corner.
by jayman66 on Nov 13, 2009 7:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Here, let's take a look at something.
The Chargers (5-3) are ranked 18th in total DVOA. That’s slightly below average.
DVOA Rankings of Wins:
31st (OAK)
12th (MIA)
27th (KC)
31st (OAK)
14th(NYG)
We’ve beaten two above average teams and three really bad teams.
DVOA Rankings of Losses:
6th (BAL)
8th (PIT)
10th (DEN)
All three of our losses have been to top ten teams.
Baltimore (4-4) ranks 6th in overall DVOA. The DVOA rankings of their wins:
27th (KC)
18th (SDG)
29th (CLE)
10th (DEN)
They’ve beaten two crappy teams, one below average team, and one good team.
Losses:
1st (NE)
13th (CIN)
7th (MIN)
13th (CIN)
Two top ten teams and one above average team.
The Chargers and Baltimore look pretty similar, in terms of who they’ve beaten, don’t they? Yet one is 6th in overall DVOA and one is 18th.
Sure, Baltimore was probably more efficient in their victories over the Chiefs and Browns than we were in our victories. But again, isn’t DVOA supposed to be adjusted for opponents?
The same thing holds true for Green Bay, even more so. They haven’t beaten ANY good teams. Their best win was over Chicago, who ranks 24th. Yet they’re still 9th overall. They’ve gotten fat beating up on teams like Detroit, St. Louis, and Cleveland, and gotten whalloped by good teams like Minnesota.
We're boned.
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 13, 2009 8:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
DVOA doesn’t try to measure which team is “better” in some abstract sense. It is a descriptive statistic. It just tells you how a team has performed on a per play basis relative to league average performance in similar down/distance/etc and is adjusted for strength of opponent.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Nov 13, 2009 9:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's a measure of team efficiency/production, right?
I understand that. And I’d agree that in some ways Baltimore has been more efficient than the Chargers. But their efficiency hasn’t translated into wins. Same for Green Bay.
In the end, I think the issue that arises here is when people assign too much value to the stat. Like you said, it’s a descriptive stat. It can’t take into account things like coaching decisions, officiating, guys having off days, guys having good days, or tipped balls dropping into the hands of a receiver.
Like I said, I think it’s a useful statistic, and I’ll agree that in many ways it’s better than the raw yardage. But unlike in baseball, football stats aren’t nearly as all-encompassing. I don’t think you’re arguing that, and I’m not trying to argue a straw-man here. I’m just stating my opinion about why it isn’t the end-all-be-all.
We're boned.
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 13, 2009 10:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I really want to know what's up with Green Bay, though.
You can watch the Packers and tell they aren’t that good. It’s not like they played particularly well in their losses. Were they SO GOOD in beating the good teams that it inflated their DVOA? It makes me wonder how FO adjusts for opponent.
It also makes me wish we got to play Detroit twice, and St. Louis.
We're boned.
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 13, 2009 10:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
oakland and kc arent good enough?
greedy jerk.
by Mad_Villain on Nov 13, 2009 10:52 PM PST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Oakland sure.
St. Louis and Detroit are both worse than Kansas City.
And when they play us, Oakland plays over their heads.
We're boned.
by Zach (maestro876) on Nov 13, 2009 10:59 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
then Oakland must be a team full of midgets
cause they always play over their heads but they still cant see the chargers.
by Mad_Villain on Nov 13, 2009 11:35 PM PST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Mental midgets
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
by Buck Melanoma on Nov 14, 2009 5:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I want to rec this and flag it at the same time.
Your terminology is troublesome, but your statement is hillarious and true.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Nov 14, 2009 9:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Very true.
I hate that. The team with the biggest problems (not the worst team, but the one with the biggest problems) saves everything they’ve got for us. They’re designed to compete with us. Every year, they get two shots to break the streak, and that’s their season, and so it will be until it happens (eventually). It’s like a chihuahua-sized Terminator. How can DVOA account for that?
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Nov 14, 2009 9:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Stats are a reflection
Stats are a reflection of what you did not what you are going to do; FO doesn’t account for future.
Mark Twain once said “There are lies, damnable lies and then there is statistics”
by bo_shilo on Nov 14, 2009 8:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That quote is way overused.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Nov 14, 2009 1:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That Oft-forgotten Matter of "Match-ups "
For the life of me, I just don’t get how otherwise intelligent people fail to acknowledge the concept of “match-ups.” It ain’t difficult.
Sure, we expect the sportswriters to generate controversy where there isn’t any. We expect nitwits who’ve never played sports to yak about the team’s record, and think THAT’s important – as if team records put on helmets and knock heads.
Every season – and every week – we all witness a game like Raiders vs Philly, and wonder about Philly’s “letdown.” Sure, sometimes teams do let down. But I’m doubting it happens all that often. “Teams looking forward to the next game.” What a crock that one is. Does anyone really think the Charger players aren’t seeing their Eagle counterparts in their sleep?
Ever notice how often the Chargers have made third-tier Quarterbacks look like Elway?
Ever think that maybe Mr. Third-tier just got pissed enough to beat our butt?
Ever notice all those expected “shoot-outs” that aren’t?
Ever notice that it doesn’t seem to matter how well Peyton Manning and his team are doing, the Chargers with a mediocre record could beat them 8 times out of ten?
How many recall that a few years ago the Chargers throttled both teams that ended up in the Super Bowl?
Sure, look at the stats & play with the math. It’s fun. We’re fans & that’s what we do. But please stop yakking about win-loss records, as though they mean anything when the whistle blows. In the end – regardless of what the Sportswriters opine (just take a peak at their predictions for "09 last August) regardless what the other guys’ record is, there is only one reality: For the next 60 minutes, there’s a whole bunch of buffed up guys that are going to try really hard to dislocate your spleen. And you know they can do it, even if the happen to be 0-15.
by PatricParamedic on Nov 14, 2009 8:24 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

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