Predicting the Score by the Numbers

I wanted to create an unbiased prediction of the score for this week’s game, but being a lifelong Charger fan I found that to be rather though.  My solution was to turn to stats, if I could look at and compare each team’s average points for and against points per game totals I thought might somehow be able to predict the score without bias.  Click below to see what I came up with.

Major Stat Geek Warning Below!!!

So far this season the Eagles have scored 27.4 points per game and allowed 19.1 points per game thus far.   The Eagles opponents have scored 20.7 points and allowed 23.4 points per game on average thus far.   If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Eagles have scored 4.1 points per game than the average and have allowed 1.6 points fewer per game than the average. 

 

 Points For Points Against
Eagles  27.4 19.1
Panthers 18.5 24.5
Saints 37.9 21.8
Chiefs 15.8 25.6
Bucs 16.8 28.9
Raiders 9.8 25.1
Redskins 14.1 19.2
Giants 25.8 22.7
Cowboys 27.1 19
Average 20.725 23.35
Adjustment 4.05 -1.625

The Chargers have scored 25.8 points per game and allowed 22.4 points per game on average thus far, while their opponents up until this point have scored an average of 19.4 points per game and allowed 21.9 points per game on average thus far.  If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Chargers are scoring 3.9 more points per game than the average and are giving up 3 points per game than the average. 

 

Points For Points Against
Chargers 25.8 22.4
Raiders 9.8 25.1
Ravens 25.8 19.2
Dolphins 24.1 25.5
Steelers 23.9 18.4
Broncos 20 13.7
Chiefs 15.8 25.6
Raiders 9.8 25.1
Giants 25.8 22.7
Average 19.375 21.9125
Adjustment 3.8875 3.025

If you take the numbers from above and apply them to this week’s game you get the following:

Chargers

The Chargers score on average 25.8 points, the Eagles allow 1.6 fewer points than average, Chargers should score 24.2 points
The Chargers allow on average 22.4 points, the Eagles score on average 4.1 points higher than average, Chargers should allow 26.5 points.

Eagles

The Eagles score on average 27.4 points, the Chargers allow 3 points more than average, the Eagles should score 30.4 points.
The Eagles allow on average 19.1 points , the Chargers score on average 3.9 points higher than average, the eagles should allow 23 points. 

Team  For Against
Chargers 24.2 26.5
Eagles   30.4 23.0

If we average the points scored and against together for each team you get the following score:

Chargers 24
Eagles 28

Man this unbiased thing sucks!

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