Predicting the Score by the Numbers
by Steve (Grey Suit) on Nov 12, 2009 12:00 PM PST
in Statistics
19 comments
I wanted to create an unbiased prediction of the score for this week’s game, but being a lifelong Charger fan I found that to be rather though. My solution was to turn to stats, if I could look at and compare each team’s average points for and against points per game totals I thought might somehow be able to predict the score without bias. Click below to see what I came up with.
Major Stat Geek Warning Below!!!
So far this season the Eagles have scored 27.4 points per game and allowed 19.1 points per game thus far. The Eagles opponents have scored 20.7 points and allowed 23.4 points per game on average thus far. If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Eagles have scored 4.1 points per game than the average and have allowed 1.6 points fewer per game than the average.
| Points For | Points Against | |
| Eagles | 27.4 | 19.1 |
| Panthers | 18.5 | 24.5 |
| Saints | 37.9 | 21.8 |
| Chiefs | 15.8 | 25.6 |
| Bucs | 16.8 | 28.9 |
| Raiders | 9.8 | 25.1 |
| Redskins | 14.1 | 19.2 |
| Giants | 25.8 | 22.7 |
| Cowboys | 27.1 | 19 |
| Average | 20.725 | 23.35 |
| Adjustment | 4.05 | -1.625 |
The Chargers have scored 25.8 points per game and allowed 22.4 points per game on average thus far, while their opponents up until this point have scored an average of 19.4 points per game and allowed 21.9 points per game on average thus far. If you compare these two sets of numbers you can see that the Chargers are scoring 3.9 more points per game than the average and are giving up 3 points per game than the average.
| Points For | Points Against | |
| Chargers | 25.8 | 22.4 |
| Raiders | 9.8 | 25.1 |
| Ravens | 25.8 | 19.2 |
| Dolphins | 24.1 | 25.5 |
| Steelers | 23.9 | 18.4 |
| Broncos | 20 | 13.7 |
| Chiefs | 15.8 | 25.6 |
| Raiders | 9.8 | 25.1 |
| Giants | 25.8 | 22.7 |
| Average | 19.375 | 21.9125 |
| Adjustment | 3.8875 | 3.025 |
If you take the numbers from above and apply them to this week’s game you get the following:
Chargers
The Chargers score on average 25.8 points, the Eagles allow 1.6 fewer points than average, Chargers should score 24.2 points
The Chargers allow on average 22.4 points, the Eagles score on average 4.1 points higher than average, Chargers should allow 26.5 points.
Eagles
The Eagles score on average 27.4 points, the Chargers allow 3 points more than average, the Eagles should score 30.4 points.
The Eagles allow on average 19.1 points , the Chargers score on average 3.9 points higher than average, the eagles should allow 23 points.
Team For Against
Chargers 24.2 26.5
Eagles 30.4 23.0
If we average the points scored and against together for each team you get the following score:
Chargers 24
Eagles 28
Man this unbiased thing sucks!
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Heh. We will see if your math gets the the Leaf or the Carnac.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 12, 2009 12:04 PM PST reply actions
The national heads are starting to pick the Chargers again, too
Not good.
Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play
by Axion on Nov 12, 2009 12:49 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
But...
Does this take into account the quality of opponent that each team has played in order to obtain these numbers? Of course I have a feeling this would skew the outcome even more so in the Eagles favor.
I included the numbers I was using.
The averages I was using was based upon the teams opponents averages of the league. I did it this way so that the team’s strength of schedule would be eliminated.
by Steve (Grey Suit) on Nov 12, 2009 2:01 PM PST reply actions
this game might go into over time 36-30 Chargers
"It dont matter if you win or lose your still a loser... said the Chargers Fan"
41-36 Cargadores....SSSSSSiiiiiiiiiiii!!!!!!!!
HUSTLE MADE ENT. NEW TRACK...CHECK FOR IT...NOTHING BUT THAT KILLA CALI FIRE FO SHO!!! http://www.myspace.com/jayoh1ne
This is a tough game to handicap
Still can’t understand why Vegas has San Diego as fav’s. The spread is San Dieg -2.5.
McNabb’s history on the west coast?
San Diego’s record at home over the years?
Either way. If they win this game i see it as an upset and will be very pleased.
Gooooooooo Redskins!!
Isn’t being the home team usually worth about a touchdown?
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Nov 12, 2009 6:22 PM PST up reply actions
It’s usually worth about 3 points
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John Gennaro on Nov 12, 2009 6:51 PM PST up reply actions
Eagles
The spread is a proxy for how the betting public thinks and reacts. The wisdom of the crowd, particularly those who put money out, is not to be lightly dismissed.
Bolts are playing better lately than the average stats for the year. Philly did not exactly distinguish themselves in Oakland. Chargers are home. Line seems about right. It’s probably 55% likely the Chargers win; 45% the Eagles do it. That’s why they make them play the games.
by San Marcos Landlord on Nov 12, 2009 4:15 PM PST reply actions
Numbers be damned
We were supposed to lose last week to the Giants. Philly should have never lost to the Raiders.
That’s why they play the game – because anything can happen. I appreciate the stat work that all of you bring here, but numbers can tell whichever side of the story that you prefer. Some folks say they don’t lie – maybe not lie, but they can certainly be used to portray the picture that you desire. Not that Steve desires a Charger loss – of course he doesn’t. I’m simply saying that you cannot put a number on things like momentum, desire to win, players getting healthier, teams gelling, the Phillip Rivers factor, etc.
Prior to the season I wrote a schedule prediction article that is proving to be false. Luckily for me, I called it Predictions and HOPES. In it, I predicted that our only loss at this point would be to Pittsburgh 21-20 & that we would lose a shootout to Philly 48-45.
We win this one, folks. Here’s to my article being wrong!!!
If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!
Robert Hunter
Accuscore
They have an average score for the Chargers of 23.6 and an average score for the Eagles of 21.9. No sure what numbers they use.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 13, 2009 9:25 AM PST reply actions
The Chargers will look to get the ball downfield to Vincent Jackson. If Jackson has a big game with 100 yards and a TD the Chargers are solid 60 percent favorites. If the Eagles can successfully bait Philip Rivers into throwing at least 1 INT the Eagles have a 50 percent chance even if Jackson has a big game. The Chargers defense is playing better and there is a 48 percent chance they sack McNabb at lest 3 times. If they do this the Chargers win 64 percent of the time, but if McNabb has good protection (no more than 1 sack) he is averages 1.8 TDs and just 0.7 INTs and the Eagles have a 60 percent chance.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 13, 2009 9:29 AM PST up reply actions
I got mine from NFL.com
Don’t know why there is a difference.
by Steve (Grey Suit) on Nov 13, 2009 11:13 AM PST up reply actions
They did 10,000 simulations, you did one?
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 13, 2009 11:17 AM PST up reply actions
wish Cutler was still with the Donkers
that would had been our boys last night…. I miss Cutler!
"It dont matter if you win or lose your still a loser... said the Chargers Fan"
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