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Week 7 Review - Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs. 37-7 Chargers.

By playing their most complete game of the season so far, the Chargers obliterate the Chiefs for their 3rd consecutive win at Arrowhead Stadium.


Another classic sports cliche applies to games like this: "Good teams beat the teams they're supposed to beat."  In this case, the Chargers did so convincingly.  It is immaterial whether or not the Chiefs are just bad or truly awful (in this case, maybe the worst Chiefs team I've ever seen), because the Chargers should beat them regardless.

As good as the Chargers looked in this game, there are still some areas for the coaching staff to work hard on during the upcoming week of practice.  In fact, it was self-inflicted mistakes that prevented the Chargers from hanging more than 50 points on Kansas City.

Star-divide

Quarterbacks: A

Philip Rivers has been the best player for the Chargers this season.  In the previous 5 games, his ability to attack the opponent was hampered by problems on the offensive line.  Not this week, as Rivers was hit only twice and not sacked.  Operating with a clean pocket, and effective running game, Rivers shredded an over-matched Chiefs secondary.  There wasn't a throw in the game that was close to being intercepted, and Rivers was consistently able to evade the meager pass rush that the Chiefs provided.  Minus one poor throw to Gates inside the Chiefs 5-yard line, dropped passes were the only thing keeping Rivers from throwing 4 (or more) TDs.  According to ESPN stats, Rivers passed Stan Humphries for 3rd on the Chargers career passing TDs list with 88.

Running Backs: B+

LaDainain Tomlinson quieted at least a few critics yesterday.  He hit the holes with burst and showed some elusiveness in the open field, most notably on a 36-yard trap run to the left in the 1st quarter.  His final stat line shows 23 carries for only 71 yards, however, 9 of those carries came inside the Kansas City 10-yard line (see Offensive Line below).  Darren Sproles added 41 yards on the ground, as well another highlight TD, 58 yards off a swing pass from Rivers.  Tomlinson was improved on blitz pick-ups, while Sproles was outstanding at keeping heat off Rivers.

Wide Receivers: B+

Vincent Jackson has become the best deep ball threat in the NFL.  His speed, ability to beat double teams down the field, attack the pass at it's highest point, and athleticism are first-rate.  His grade for the game is an A+.  Posting a team-record 142 receiving yards in 1 half is astonishing, considering that this is the franchise of Lance Alworth, John Jefferson, Charlie Joiner, Wes Chandler, and Kellen Winslow.  Gates was outstanding as usual, his early season case of the the fumbles appears to have been cured.  Malcom Floyd contributed a 4-yard TD catch.  This brings me to Chris Chambers, who, to put it nicely, was not very good.  On consecutive drives in the 2nd Quarter, Chambers dropped a TD, followed by a 3rd down drop on the next series that would have given P Mike Scifres much more room to work with.  For his first season and a half in San Diego, Chambers caught almost everything thrown his way.  This season, he has been inconsistent at best.

Offensive Line: B-

If I was grading the Offensive Line's play up to the Kansas City 10-yard line, the grade would be an A.  Inside the Chiefs' 10, a C-.  Pass protection was excellent across the board, as the Chiefs got no pressure on Rivers whatsoever, blitzing or otherwise.  Run blocking was solid, but not great.  There were a limited number of penalties, except for a bizarre call against rookie Brandyn Dombrowski for not reporting as an eligible receiver (the dubious penalty cost Tomlinson a TD run).  However, this unit must significantly step up it's game inside the red zone.  The inability to finish drives was the primary factor in the loss to Baltimore in Week 2, and here it could have allowed the Chiefs to mount a second-half comeback.  Special attention must be paid to rookie RG Louis Vasquez, a terrific pass blocker who needs to execute better in short-yardage and goal-to-go running situations.

Defensive Line: B+

For the first time this year, the Chargers' defensive line controlled the line of scrimmage.  And what a difference it makes.  The Chiefs offense was not effective using a power running game under any circumstances.  The biggest play of the game was stuffing Chiefs' QB Matt Cassel on a 4th-and-1 sneak at the Kansas City 41-yard line.  The Chargers linemen occupied multiple blockers, allowing Defensive Coordinator Ron Rivera to run some early safety and zone blitzes that kept the Chiefs' offense guessing throughout the 1st half.  In the 2nd half, Rivera used the linebackers more, and the space eaten up by the line helped force Cassel into 3 interceptions.  Some work needs to be done on defending draw plays and QB scrambles.  Also, it appears that DT Ian Scott, while no Jamal Williams, has added some desperately needed bulk and power to the interior of the defense.  Minus Cassel's scrambling, the Chiefs rushed for only 97 yards.

Linebackers: A-

At long last, a sighting of both OLBs Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips in something resembling Pro Bowl form.  Phillips had a terrific 2nd half, netting 2 sacks of Cassel.  Merriman contributed several QB hurries, at least one of which helped force an interception.  Merriman also had a vintage play, running down Chiefs' RB Larry Johnson for a short gain on 3rd-and-3 from across the field.  Inside, reserve ILBs Tim Dobbins and Brandon Siler (substituting for Kevin Burnett and Stephen Cooper, respectively) combining for 19 tackles.  Dobbins in particular played with a nasty streak, getting penetration and making solid, hard tackles.  There were no troubles in pass defense, as Dobbins collected a tipped interception, and the zone blitz scheme was used effectively.

Secondary: A-

Rookie S Kevin Ellison had his second good game in a row, contributing solid tackling and aggressive run support.  Replacing CB Antoine Cason with S Steve Gregory at the nickel back slot appears to have been a good coaching decision, as Gregory made a few nice pass break-ups and grabbed Cassel's 3rd interception. S Paul Oliver, who has seen the field infrequently, snared a terrible Cassel overthrow.  CBs Quentin Jammer and Antonio Cromartie had solid games, finally getting the better of Chiefs' WR Dwayne Bowe.  Cassel had nowhere to go during his initial reads, and the secondary was rewarded with consistent pass pressure.

Special Teams: B

Mike Scifres had his first good game in a couple of weeks, hitting punts with the booming distance and hang time we're accustomed to seeing.  PK Nate Kaeding remains Mr. Reliable inside of 40 yards, but anything beyond 40 yards is a question mark.  it is interesting to note however, that the flags on the top of the goalposts indicated there was a stronger wind than was on the field - both Kaeding and Chiefs' K Ryan Succop pushed their kicks to the right.  Kaeding's kickoffs were shorter than usual, but it appeared deliberate on the part of the coaching staff to limit long returns.  Coverage units played well, although kick and return blocking were not as good as they have been in previous weeks.

Coaching Staff: B+

I'm not sure whether Norv Turner and the staff can be overly praised for the Chargers being ready to play with a sense of urgency - this may be more the team realizing that the Denver loss puts them in a must-win situation.  That being said, Turner called a good offensive game.  Considering the red zone difficulties, Turner made 3 outstanding calls: the clear out which resulted in Floyd's TD catch in the 1st quarter, the 3rd-and-Goal where Rivers threw the fade stop to Chambers in the 2nd quarter, and the 3rd-and-Goal where Rivers missed Gates on a play-action pass in the 4th quarter.  Also, I liked that Turner challenged the offensive line in the 3rd quarter with the game in-hand.  Defensive Coordinator Ron Rivera mixed in early safety blitzes which confused Kansas City's offensive line, building on that later with a series of well designed zone blitzes.  Also, the defensive lineup changes appear to have had an impact, substituting Gregory for Cason at nickel back, as well as increasing the play time for Ellison at safety.

Biggest Positives:

  • Overall play of the defense was outstanding.  Defensive line, linebackers, and secondary played as a whole unit for the first time.  Players appeared to trust each other and not try to go "beyond the scheme" to make plays.  Regardless of the opponent, allowing 7 points, 203 total yards, and 10 first downs is a job well done.
  • Offensive run and pass blocking was terrific between the 20s.  When Rivers has a clean pocket and the threat of a running game, the Chargers' offense is as good as any offense this side of New Orleans.
  • Receiver play, excepting Chambers, was sensational.
  • Coaches had an excellent game plan on both sides of the ball.  In-game adjustments and play calls were well above average.
  • Starting fast by passing to set up the run.
  • Defense was excellent at keeping Kansas City in 2nd and 3rd-long situations throughout the game.

     

Biggest Areas of Concern:

  • Inability to finish drives inside the opponent's 5-yard line kept the Chiefs in this game well into the 3rd quarter - the game could have been over at halftime.
  • Chambers appears unfocused, or age is catching up with him.  Either way, it will be harder and harder to keep Floyd out of the starting lineup if Chambers continues to struggle.
  • Defense is still susceptible to draw plays and QB scrambles on 3rd and long.

Looking Ahead:

To running the streak over Oakland to 13 games.  In film buff parlance, the Chargers haven't lost to the Raiders since The Rundown was the #1 movie in America.

Author's Note:  Linebacker section was corrected to reflect that ILB Stephen Cooper did not play, or was extremely limited in game action.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Bolts From The Blue community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bolts From The Blue editors or SB Nation.

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You're a good writer dude I appreciate and respect your opinion.

You started right in with the posts and that takes moxy…lol…good article.You were very objective and honest, without coming off too critical of our players.Rec’d…thumbs up bro!!!

HUSTLE MADE ENT. NEW TRACK...CHECK FOR IT...NOTHING BUT THAT KILLA CALI FIRE FO SHO!!! http://www.myspace.com/jayoh1ne

by Gorditoe1 on Oct 27, 2009 2:41 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

great analysis and insight

well thought out and straightforward. recd.

I bomb atomically, Socrates' philosophies
and hypothesis can't define how I be droppin these
mockeries, lyrically perform armed robbery
Flee with the lottery, possibly they spotted me
Battle-scarred shogun, explosion when my pen hits
tremendous, ultra-violet shine blind forensics

by tonik on Oct 27, 2009 2:55 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Have you listened to my song bro? if not check it out,see if you feel it.

HUSTLE MADE ENT. NEW TRACK...CHECK FOR IT...NOTHING BUT THAT KILLA CALI FIRE FO SHO!!! http://www.myspace.com/jayoh1ne

by Gorditoe1 on Oct 27, 2009 2:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice job

Objective & to the point. I might have downgraded the RBs to a B, but grading is always somewhat subjective.

Nice job.

If the thunder don't get ya then the lightning will!!

Robert Hunter

by Buck Melanoma on Oct 27, 2009 4:57 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

You’re right. Rivers did move into 3rd place in all time Chargers TD passes. However….it may be a while before he gets to number 2.

1. Fouts – 254
2. Hadl – 201
3. Rivers – 88
4. Humphries – 85
5. Brees – 80

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John (obviousman) on Oct 27, 2009 5:47 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Meh...P.R only needs 8 games, maybe one season topps to break Fouts' record

On Halloween; USC will die, Matt Barkley will cry, and all of the little bandwagoning Trojan fans will shout "WHY!?"

In the holy name of Juju, I am the humblest of servants

by CaDuck on Oct 27, 2009 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

BTW

Loving your FanPosts. Please keep ’em coming.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John (obviousman) on Oct 27, 2009 5:47 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

This seems as good of a place to point it out as any

But, traffic on this site seems a lot sparser this week than it has in other weeks.

Is it because this was a routine win? Do people get more riled up after losses? Are people just bored of the team? Does everyone need their spare time for costume shopping? Not that it’s a big deal. Just a curiosity.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Oct 27, 2009 5:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Traffic analysis

The only true way to guarantee hits is to

Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play

by Axion on Oct 27, 2009 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I think people are more riled up after losses

and the upcoming game isn’t against a marquee opponent.

Now, when Giants week rolls around…

We're boned.

by maestro876 on Oct 27, 2009 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

People love to come in after a win and scream about Norv and AJ needing to be fired. After an expected win, those people are nowhere to be seen. When Giants week rolls around they’ll be back to trash-talk Eli Manning.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John (obviousman) on Oct 28, 2009 2:27 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i'm still here.

the chargers played like the team i thought they were, and won. in context however, they played a not so good team to do it. but, the chiefs are a professional team just like the ones we lost to. so, my only gripe is, if the only teams you can beat, convincingly, are .500 or lower teams, how can you win against teams, in the playoffs, that are over .500? hence the knock, beat a team that matters. because if you make into the playoffs, there is a good chance you will see that “good” team again.

still, a win is a win, and i’ll take it. we’re 3-3. nobody gives you credit for an almost win, and nobody takes any away for beating a bad team. winning is the only thing that matters.

peace out

The peanut gallery has spoken!!!

by gatesoftds on Oct 28, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rec'd

Great post John. i wish i could be a negative nancy, but you’ve covered the areas of concern. quite bluntly the chargers looked like the chargers again. i guess all the they needed was a scrimage game, that mattered.

The peanut gallery has spoken!!!

by gatesoftds on Oct 27, 2009 7:53 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If the Bills, Dolphins, Broncos, Titans and Chargers all win this week, San Diego will be sitting all alone in the second Wild Card spot.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Oct 27, 2009 7:59 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If, however, the Ravens were to beat Denver we’d be sitting on the outside looking in still because Baltimore holds the tiebreaker over us. I’m torn as to which outcome to root for…

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Oct 27, 2009 8:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Week 8

I cheer for Ravens still want the divisional title if we can get it

by Dude52089 on Oct 27, 2009 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

For what it's worth

I think Denver beats Baltimore.

We're boned.

by maestro876 on Oct 27, 2009 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It not worth very much.

Sorry, had to hit the hanging curveball. BURN!

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue ::This spot currently available for lease::
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Oct 27, 2009 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

BONG!!!

HUSTLE MADE ENT. NEW TRACK...CHECK FOR IT...NOTHING BUT THAT KILLA CALI FIRE FO SHO!!! http://www.myspace.com/jayoh1ne

by Gorditoe1 on Oct 27, 2009 9:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

BAM!!

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue ::This spot currently available for lease::
Representing the San Diego State University Aztecs, home of the 2009 College Cheerleading National Champions in the all women's division.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Oct 27, 2009 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

SHIBBY!!!

Dude wheres my car reference!

On Halloween; USC will die, Matt Barkley will cry, and all of the little bandwagoning Trojan fans will shout "WHY!?"

In the holy name of Juju, I am the humblest of servants

by CaDuck on Oct 27, 2009 9:36 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

ay lil buddy you and all the fellas need to add me on the myspace and support my shit...fo sho sad seal!!!

HUSTLE MADE ENT. NEW TRACK...CHECK FOR IT...NOTHING BUT THAT KILLA CALI FIRE FO SHO!!! http://www.myspace.com/jayoh1ne

by Gorditoe1 on Oct 28, 2009 2:00 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

They will. Baltimore’s secondary is atrocious.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John (obviousman) on Oct 28, 2009 2:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Their whole defense isn't as good as it used to be

or that they hoped it was. They’ve actually given up more total yards than we have, and WAY more passing yards. They’ve barely given up fewer points than us too.

Their only wins come against two terrible teams and one average one that they barely squeaked by. Their schedule doesn’t get any easier.

It’s funny that three weeks ago they were being annointed the best team in football. Now, with two 5-2 teams in their division, they’re gonna have to fight just to make the playoffs.

We're boned.

by maestro876 on Oct 28, 2009 7:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

They’re still a better pass defense than us on the year and their run defense remains one of the best while ours is one of the worst.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Oct 28, 2009 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think, statistically, their pass defense is worse actually.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John (obviousman) on Oct 28, 2009 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

As usual

it depends on what metric you use. If you want to go raw yardage, we’re better, because we’ve given up WAY fewer yards through the air.

If you want to use FO’s stats, Baltimore is better (though not by a lot).

If you want to go by opposing QB rating, we’re somewhat better.

We're boned.

by maestro876 on Oct 28, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Raw Yardage

Would be a dumb way to measure it. Don’t punish their pass defense because their run defense is outstanding (or rather, don’t give our pass defense credit for our run defense being awful).

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Oct 28, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

However

Instead of using DVOA (because some people find it scary). You could measure by Yards/Attempt. That would be a more accurate way of measuring who has the better pass defense than raw yardage or QB rating (especially because QB rating doesn’t count sacks).

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Oct 28, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmmm

Interesting.

Yds Per Attempt:
SD – 6.533
BAL – 7.715

So does that mean SD’s pass defense has been better?

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John (obviousman) on Oct 28, 2009 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Probably not

But it’s interesting that BAL could get a lower DVOA while giving up more yards per attempt. There must be something we’re missing here, like that the Chargers are giving up more TDs through the air and/or more first downs through the air. Or maybe BAL gets turnovers through the air. I assume Yds/Attempt counts an INT or Fumble as either 0 or the number of yards before the fumble, whereas DVOA would give the defense more credit for those types of game changing plays. DVOA would also count a PI penalty as part of the yards against the defense, not sure how those show up in Yds/Attempt.

It definitely points to Ravens pass defense being a bit more bend, but don’t break than the Chargers.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Oct 28, 2009 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

BTW

The Chargers DVOA against #2 WRs is 2nd in the league and against #1s it’s a respectable 13th (with an above average DVOA). That is surprising. They are (unsurprisingly) in the bottom half against “Other WRs”, TEs and RBs (especially RBs) in pass defense.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Oct 28, 2009 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

To put it into perspective
  1. WRs do as poorly against the Chargers, as JaMarcus Russell does at QB (DVOA-wise). Incredible.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Oct 28, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

ick

that “1. WRs” should have been “#2 WRs”

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Oct 28, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yards/Attempt doesn’t count fumbles, sacks or pass interference.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Oct 28, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm

I would have thought sacks would be included.

And I assume you mean it doesn’t count QB fumbles, because I would think a catch by a WR that is then fumbled would have the yards counted. The PI’s not being counted makes sense since they are technically not plays. All of these are points that hurt yards/attempt, but I would still say its better than raw yardage totals and maybe better than QB rating.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Oct 28, 2009 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Still better than raw yardage totals. Maybe better than QB Rating. I really hate not accounting for interceptions. Then again, overvaluing touchdowns is bad, too.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Oct 28, 2009 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m loving these stats your throwing out.

First Downs by Air
SD – 61 (tied with Denver for 5th lowest, who knew?)
BAL – 67

TDs by Air
SD – 9
BAL – 9

Also, both defense have 7 interceptions. What now, college boy?

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John (obviousman) on Oct 29, 2009 4:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not quite good enough

I want first downs by air on 3rd down vs passes attempted on 3rd down.

And I’ve got to think there are some key fumbling recoveries on passes on that the Ravens got.

And the PI penalties are important as well. I’m thinking the Chargers will have more.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Oct 29, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't find DVOA scary

but I do think that it shouldn’t be considered definitive.

My problem stems from the fact that football is a team sport, and it’s really hard to separate the performance of one player from others, especially when all you’re looking at is box scores and play-by-play lists.

Take Rivers, for example. He doesn’t crack the top 10 in DVOA. The problem with this, though, is he gets negative points against him in FO’s system for things he shouldn’t get negative points for. He throws balls away, and those count against him because he’s not completing passes. But it doesn’t take into account receivers being covered, where in that case the best decision he could make would be to throw the ball away. He gets negative points for not making first downs, when his receivers either drop the ball or run their routes too short. He gets negatives for taking sacks, when you can more accurately put the blame on the offensive line for letting unblocked guys through, or on the play-caller for not giving him an outlet receiver.

By the same token, Kyle Orton gets credit for throwing a 70-yard TD pass to Brandon Stokely on 4th down Week 1 against Cincinnati, and he gets all sorts of positives for that under DVOA because he threw a TD, he did it on 4th down, and he did it late in the game. Problem is the ball he actually threw was high and uncatchable, got tipped by a DB, and miraculously deflected into the hands of Stokely (who he wasn’t even throwing to) who ran downfield for the score.

Eli Manning gets credit for throwing a 40-yard TD pass last Sunday night on 3rd and 18 when his team was down, but in reality that was another badly thrown ball that got tipped into the hands of a different receiver.

Overall, my point is that my problem with DVOA is that it’s trying to make football stats as meaningful as baseball stats, when you really can’t do that. And my other problem is they talk about their stats like they’re definitive, when they aren’t.

We're boned.

by maestro876 on Oct 28, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My problem with this argument

Is that there isn’t anything better. I’m not accusing anyone specifically here, but usually the DVOA/DYAR detractors will fall back on stone age statistics to try to back there arguments. When really the advanced stats will always work better when try to determine football value.

I always like to see these stats (and baseball stats for that matter) as the jumping off point. They are the least flawed of any football statistic (name me any football statistic that shows me a QB throwaway or a drop by a WR as a positive or even neutral play for a QB, and then try to find me another QB stat that gives the QB credit for actually converted a 3rd down play). I can find caveats in baseball stats too, they find them all the time. A well talked about one was Kevin Youkilis’ 2008 season where he was awesome in a number of advanced metrics. But, when you analyzed his HRs you could see that many were “just enough” HRs which historically are not indicative of an increase in value, but rather an increase in luck.

Stats will never be the end all and be all, but they do “remember” more plays than any human ever could and can be fine-tuned to help people deal with all the various information and adjust for what correlates the best with winning. And, that’s why they can be treated as definitive in some cases, because unless you are going to go and pick apart every detail of the football game (which FO does in their Any Given Sunday column and and used to in their Every Play Counts column) you can’t possible process enough information to get a better account of what happened.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Oct 28, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

For those that don't want to read that whole thing

I could summarize it by saying:

It’s definitive enough to the point that using anything else would be less accurate. I don’t encourage ignoring its flaws, but it definitely has less of them then any other method for analyzing football performance.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Oct 28, 2009 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I agree with what you say

my only problem is with people (and no one specific) that treat it as definitive. The FO guys themselves tend to do this.

We're boned.

by maestro876 on Oct 28, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And I just sort of reacted

when you said people “scared of DVOA”, and I felt compelled to go on a rant. So by bad in that regard.

We're boned.

by maestro876 on Oct 28, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But I refuse to beleive that Orton

is a better quarterback than Rivers. I think that Orton’s success come largely due to an offensive line and running game that put him in far more favorable situations than Rivers.

We're boned.

by maestro876 on Oct 28, 2009 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe it's best to remember

That DVOA isn’t show you who is “better”, but rather who has been more productive. You could then make the leap to say that a more productive QB is better than a less productive one, but just like what you present in your counter arguments, that is not always the case. Sometimes the vocabulary used is important.

So, in a sense, that reaffirms what you said earlier about the team sport aspect getting in the way. That part of the game is what prevents the level of production from becoming an all around evaluation of performance. And, I guess that’s where it is different from baseball in that your level of production in baseball (adjusted for ballpark, position and run environment) is basically a proper method for all around evaluation of performance.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Oct 28, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Very Well Put

I think from previous posts you know that I go mainly by what I see and remember, but you are correct that stats will record more than the mind could ever remember.

“I always like to these stats as the jumping off point”. Is the part of your post that makes the most sense to me.

The stats can help you make sure that you are in the ballpark on something, and you can then fine tune your opinion based on specific things that you have seen, and things that it may be difficult for a number or formula to digest.

by JeromeB on Oct 28, 2009 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another thing worth noting is that most of your complaints don’t apply to the team or offense/defense/special teams stats.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Oct 28, 2009 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I still think the best choice

Is to ignore them entirely.

Rooting against them has been frustrating and rooting for them is disgusting. So just don’t pay attention and then read the box score/watch the highlights afterwards.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Oct 28, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I’m really bad at ignoring them.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Oct 28, 2009 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I just realized

that in the unlikely event that we win our next 3 games, it’s quite possible our Week 11 match up with Denver gets flexed to Sunday Night.

The scheduled night game that week is Philly @ Chicago. If Chicago continues to slide and we get better, it could happen.

The other major game I can identify is NYJ @ NE, though NE will have been on SNF the previous week @ Indy, so it’s unlikely they’d get 2 SNF games in a row. Other possibilities would be Atlanta @ NYG and Washington @ Dallas, though I don’t think the latter would have much of a chance of getting flexed.

We're boned.

by maestro876 on Oct 27, 2009 8:52 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

Although, being on the east coast, I really hate night games.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John (obviousman) on Oct 28, 2009 2:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

:-)

I love them. I get to watch the day games, and then focus on the Chargers.

We're boned.

by maestro876 on Oct 28, 2009 7:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Keep in mind

If there is still an undefeated team, NBC might flex them in even against a week opponent. They did this with the Patriots at least once during their undefeated regular season.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Oct 28, 2009 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

True.

Could be Indy @ Baltimore, or New Orleans @ Tampa.

If Denver is still undefeated, then your point would benefit our game.

We're boned.

by maestro876 on Oct 28, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh yeah

I hadn’t considered that. But I fully expect the Broncos to lose their Monday night game against the Steelers in week 9.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Oct 28, 2009 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I dunno.

They’re at home, and the Broncos had success there against the Steelers back in 2007, when they (Denver) were a much worse team.

That’s probably their best chance to lose the next three weeks, though.

We're boned.

by maestro876 on Oct 28, 2009 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I could all Bronco fan and say

This Broncos team is nothing like that Broncos team so that win doesn’t count for much.

Big Ben also gift wrapped that game for the Donkeys with 2 INTs and a sack fumble that they returned for the TD. Here’s hoping he’s learning something since then. There were also 3 fumbles in that game (2 by Den and the aforementioned Ben fumble) and Denver recovered all of them. Lucky bastards.

Anyway, I guess my point is, I don’t think that game matters much when it comes to the one in week 9 and that’s hopefully the last I’ll speak of that team until week 11.

Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.

by Wonko on Oct 28, 2009 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.

Done and done.

We're boned.

by maestro876 on Oct 28, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs


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