San Diego Chargers Have 25% Chance to Make the Playoffs

by John Gennaro on Oct 22, 2009 6:13 AM PDT in Statistics Comment 39 comments

Fo_medium

Don't worry kids, it's not over! According to Football Outsiders, the Chargers still have a 25% chance to make the playoffs (and a 22.7% chance to win a Wild Card spot). The Broncos, at 6-0, have a 99.2% chance of making the playoffs. Both teams are leaps and bounds ahead of the Chiefs and Raiders, both of whom have less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs according to FO's simulations.

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Anyone else find it weird that the Chiefs have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Raiders?

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Oct 22, 2009 6:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Must be strength of remaining schedule

… and that Bengals win the Chiefs stole. Even though their math shows a difference, I would not consider that difference to be significant at all. Likely they are using an alpha of 5%.

It probably would have been better for them to report the chances as < the alpha (ie: <5%) instead of reporting a value.

by Trendsearcher on Oct 22, 2009 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So you're saying

there’s a chance.

"Football is a physical sport, sometimes you have a disagreement on what's going on, and you have a discussion about it." Kris Dielman

by Brian (DaBolts) on Oct 22, 2009 6:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Last Year

Weren’t we down to 7% at one point?…

by Jonny Dub on Oct 22, 2009 7:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I believe so

and Denver was definitely above the 90% mark.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Oct 22, 2009 7:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

25% seems like a good line to draw

by Trendsearcher on Oct 22, 2009 9:08 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

What's the point?

Why do you guys want to to make the playoffs? It’s a situation similar to what ours was in Denver. Obviously Shanahan is a much more decorate coach and offensive mind than Norv Turner.. but perennially ‘almost’ getting it done and ‘just getting there’ is what kept lengthening Shanny’s leash.

Thankfully Bowlen finally manned up and took a big risk. He could have kept stealing the additional playoff revenue from fans, knowing full well it wasn’t a team capable of going deep.

Josh McDaniels has proven you can rebuild on the fly.. assuming you hire the right guy. Is the concern that AJ isn’t capable of upgrading? It’s hard to tank in the NFL, especially when you play in the AFC-W, but instead of rooting for a cheap playoff berth and first round ousting just to maintain some false sense of self.. why not blow it up?

I suppose when you have a guy like Rivers at QB, rebuilding is pretty taboo.. but Norv Turner sucks ass.

by ELGee on Oct 22, 2009 9:12 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

decorated*

by ELGee on Oct 22, 2009 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Chargers have been quite good in the playoffs the last two years, and have only lost because of injuries, luck or both. Although the Bolts have dug themselves into a little hole, Chargers fans would feel confident in this team and coaching staff if the team were to make it into the playoffs.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Oct 22, 2009 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs

Rec'd

Just because we always have started slow under Norv doesn’t mean we haven’t done well in the playoffs when we make it. Injuries have plagued this team and I really more wonder about conditioning and the training staff, seems every year in the playoffs we have an injury.

by Dude52089 on Oct 22, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

Hate to say it but I agree. It has become obvious that A J ain’t going to fire norv unless Dean forces him to. To save face, I think A J would keep norv and make the old injury excuse if the team even manages 8-8. The rest of the schedule might be weak enough to get into the playoffs. But then again it might NOT be. I haven’t seen anything so far to lead me to believe this team deserves a playoff spot. Face it, A J is basically throwing this season away to give norv and company a chance to prove themselves. I think norv has more than proved that he sucks as a head coach. This team has gotten worse under norv, not better. And, can anyone explain to me why when rivers is getting sacked and pressured into throwing it away that norv kept calling deep pass routes that take to long to develope? Wouldn’t quick slants to the tight end or quick outs have been a wiser choice to make? Denver may have stopped those as well, but at least rivers wouldn’t have gotten pounded as much. And, some of them might have worked and extended drives instead of three and out. As the saying goes, if it ain’t working try something else. Does our so called offensive genius only have 5 or 6 plays in his play book?

by irishlad on Oct 22, 2009 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If we're using Denver as an example

Then the only thing SD really needs is a good 3-4 DC and a couple of good FA pickups on defense. The Broncos have shown that a half-step down in offensive production is more than adequately compensated by a giant leap forward in defensive production. Even with injuries, SD’s offense is still capable.

by CoastalBronco on Oct 22, 2009 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don’t they have 8 new starters on defense? That’s hardly “a couple of good FA pickups”. That’s a level of risk that AJ Smith is not willing to take.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Oct 22, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

First, Denver was in much worse shape last year last than SD is this year, so I wouldn’t expect SD to be as aggressive.

Second, Denver has eight new starters, but two or three of those were backups last year. Apparently it’s about evaluating and maximizing talent as much as it is about signing new guys that fit the system… wonderful new concepts in Denver.

by CoastalBronco on Oct 22, 2009 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Please name for me the only team in the NFL the last two years to win a playoff game in both post-seasons?

by SJO on Oct 22, 2009 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

PICK ME!

Is it the Detroit Lions?!?!!

Seriously I know we have won a play off game for the past two years.

by Dude52089 on Oct 22, 2009 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And what was our record for those two years after 5 games?

by SJO on Oct 26, 2009 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What's the point?

If by some miricle we actually made it into the playoffs does anyone actually think we could beat the Steelers, Colts, Bronco’s, Patroits, even the Bengals???

We got whipped by the Bronco’s at home because our D cannot get off the feild, same story all year, embarrassing to say the least, wake up San Diego our D is the worst in the league

by alanbmx on Oct 24, 2009 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really think we could. This is a second half team and if we get Hardwick back with no other major injuries, this team will be much better than it has been the first few weeks.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Oct 25, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's a long season.

We look like crap now, but yes there is time for change. I’m not hoping for any miracles, just hoping, you know.

by SJO on Oct 26, 2009 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I noticed during the post game press conferences

That the background placard featured Coors Light logos.. I realize money talks, but wouldn’t you guys rather give the advertising space to a non-Colorado based company?

by ELGee on Oct 22, 2009 10:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Surely you jest

What could be better than having Colorodans paying Philip Rivers salary?

"Football is a physical sport, sometimes you have a disagreement on what's going on, and you have a discussion about it." Kris Dielman

by Brian (DaBolts) on Oct 22, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

MillerCoors is headquartered in Chicago

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
A kid who has a unicorn ranch in his room cannot call other people weird. Yes, we know about "Rancho Unicorno."

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Oct 22, 2009 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Random story

The best man at my wedding is the great great (great?) grandson of Adolph Coors, who started the Coors Brewing Company.

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Oct 22, 2009 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sooo...

If they ever stop making the commercials with the retired coaches, I can therefore blame you?

A much needed bye week; and two whole weeks to focus the inner hatred of UW even moreso than normal.

Locker...Welcome to my profile, You will be formally introduced by Juju at a later date, 10/23 to be more specific!

by CaDuck on Oct 22, 2009 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

sure

"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock

by John Gennaro on Oct 23, 2009 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Random

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
A kid who has a unicorn ranch in his room cannot call other people weird. Yes, we know about "Rancho Unicorno."

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Oct 23, 2009 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Football Outsiders

also predicted that the Chargers would win 12.5 games this season and had an %87 chance of winning at 11 or more games.

I bet by week 17 they will have a really good guess at the Charges win total this season.

by JeromeB on Oct 22, 2009 12:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

What they really did was say that their projection system averaged 12.5 wins, not that the Chargers would win 12.5 games.

by Richard Wade on Oct 22, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I understand

that they did not predict the team to win 12 games with a tie in the mix. My point was just that according to their advanced formulas it was just about a sure thing that we (the Chargers) were going to win 11 or more games, and be a play off lock.
Now their adjusted advanced formulas say the Chargers have a %25 chance of going to the play offs.
As I stated by week 17 they will probably have it right.
To me their advanced stats are a better guess than a casual fan, but not much better than somebody who really follows the game.

by JeromeB on Oct 22, 2009 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Their picks tend to be the most accurate each year when compared against other systems and experts. Also, I don’t think they were accounting for the team’s top two nose tackles being lost for the season.

by Richard Wade on Oct 22, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am curious

to see how their picks each week have stacked up against other systems and experts could you post me a link. I would appreciate it. I am not trying to be a smart ass, I really would appreciate it. I gamble on football each week (and do pretty well) but if they really are the most accurate way of predicting the results of games maybe I could do even better.
Also every team has injuries it is a part of the game. If they thought that the Chargers would go through this season without any injuries, then that is a flaw in their system.

by JeromeB on Oct 22, 2009 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m referring to pre-season picks. I’m not certain how well their week-to-week picks work out. Perhaps someone who has FO Premium could chime in on that.

by Richard Wade on Oct 22, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

these are ATS

High confidence: 2-2
Medium confidence: 11-15
Low confidence: 32-28

I don’t consultant them when I’m laying money down.

by CoastalBronco on Oct 22, 2009 4:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

reply to JeromeB

by CoastalBronco on Oct 22, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Textbook case of reply fail

A much needed bye week; and two whole weeks to focus the inner hatred of UW even moreso than normal.

Locker...Welcome to my profile, You will be formally introduced by Juju at a later date, 10/23 to be more specific!

by CaDuck on Oct 22, 2009 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Thanks CoastalBronco

Throw in the Vig and the Football Outsiders would be losing their cash if they put their money where their stats are. 45-45 doesn’t cut it.
I do much better than that without any secret formulas. And I do put my money on the line every week.

by JeromeB on Oct 22, 2009 9:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs