Kyle Orton vs. Philip Rivers
by John (obviousman) on Oct 13, 2009 5:03 AM PDT
88 comments
I don't want to sound like a jerk, but I always liked Kyle Orton. Don't get me wrong, he's not Drew Brees, but when he was forced into starting 15 games for the Bears in his rookie season he led the team to a 10-5 record. His completion percentage wasn't high, and he threw more picks than he did TDs, but he did a very good job of managing the game. Especially for a rookie. I remember thinking to myself, "Well, the Bears have a decent QB for the next 5-6 years now." Then the Bears sat Orton and started Rex Grossman instead.
Neither QB was lighting the world on fire, but Orton just won games. Grossman won a few as well, but the difference between the two was that Orton was getting better. In his three years of playing with the Bears, his QB rating went from 59.7 to 73.9 to 79.6. His completion percentage went from 51.6% to 58.5% in that timespan, and you could argue that his receiving corps got worse as time went on. In short, Orton was getting better. He was getting more accurate. In 2008, for the first time in his career, he threw more TDs (18) than INTs (12). When the Bears became a possible trade partner for the Broncos, I'm sure Josh McDaniels looked at those improvements and saw a player that would flourish in a pass-happy spread offense with playmaking WRs, and that's exactly what has happened.
After the jump, we go deep into the stats to find out who is having the better season thusfar: Kyle Orton or Philip Rivers?
As it stands right now, Philip is not having a season on par with his 2008 season. However, he's dealing with zero running game instead of a halfway decent running game. Also, the defense (which was already bad) has regressed. Usually the first time Philip gets on the field he's already playing catch-up.
The biggest factor in Rivers' regression this season is the offensive line, or lack thereof. He's been sacked 10 times this season, and has thrown the ball away quite a bit while avoiding pass-rushers. If he's going to get better as the season goes along, he's going to need more protection and a better running game. A healthy Louis Vasquez and LaDainian Tomlinson goes a long way towards accomplishing that.
For as much as we've attributed the Broncos' success with a weak schedule, Orton has been going against some tough secondaries. The average ranking for passing defenses that the Broncos have gone up against is 17.8 in terms of yardage allowed and 16.6 in terms of points allowed. The average rankings for the Chargers opponents is 18.5 in terms of yards and 17.25 in terms of points. So, overall, Orton has faced slightly tougher secondaries than Rivers.
There's no denying that Orton is playing better football. Both players have scored the same number of touchdowns, Orton has thrown less picks and is completing a higher percentage of his passes. He's also been sacked less (1.6 sacks per game) than Rivers (2.5 sacks per game) and has generally had more time to pass.
The great equalizer here is everything besides the Quarterback. Orton may be posting better numbers, but he also gets to lean on the 5th ranked rushing offense and 2nd ranked defense (1st in points allowed). Philip Rivers gets to play with the league's worst rushing offense (32nd) and the 26th ranked defense (25th in points allowed), and is therefore under more duress.
To me, right now, I think they come out as equal. Kyle Orton has gotten better with each season he's played, and has found an offense that fits him perfectly. Rivers has gotten better with each season, but he needs more support from the rest of the team to keep the team competitive and to see improvement in his stats.
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Thats just it....
Orton has a better O-Line and Running game… and of course a good defense… and if anything Orton is getting all praise giving him confidence… If he didnt have all that he wouldnt be able to do what he’s doing right now. Rivers doesnt need confidence he’s a competitor he knows he’s good… all he needs is a good O-line and a running game… and a decent defense… Orton is good at short passes most of the time and thats what has made them successful w/ the pass… Rivers likes the deep passes and he’s very good at it w/ of course his Receivers… Ugh! I just hope the Chargers stop the Broncos!! Go Bolts!
" A finger or two in the air shows how much we care"
by ChargersWitch on Oct 13, 2009 5:18 AM PDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
If he didnt have all that he wouldnt be able to do what he’s doing right now
How come nobody was saying that about Matt Cassel last season?
Orton>Cassel
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John (obviousman) on Oct 13, 2009 5:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cause....
He was w/ the Patriots… Pats dont count… Notice how everything revolves around Brady??? Yeah they kept Cassel safe… and these QB rules are all cuz of Brady… Brady brady Brady…. Ive seen worse things happen to QB’s but noo when Brady gets hurt it becomes a headline and a rule. Totally oif subject lol
" A finger or two in the air shows how much we care"
by ChargersWitch on Oct 13, 2009 7:48 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
How good would Orton be....
If he played for us right now??? U think he’d be as successful as Rivers?
" A finger or two in the air shows how much we care"
by ChargersWitch on Oct 13, 2009 7:53 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
No
Different offenses. The Chargers offense is currently based around Rivers deep-passes, which Orton is pretty average with. Orton is better at short passes, because he can be accurate and throw low-risk passes, which is why he’s doing well in Denver’s offense.
With the Chargers, Orton would look just like he did with the Bears.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John (obviousman) on Oct 13, 2009 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which was still good....had a 21-12 in a system he was so NOT a fit for! But Rivers is a great fit for SD...
And, to be honest, I think Rivers could play in ANY system!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Oct 13, 2009 8:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly Different Offenses....
And thats what needs to improve and I love our QB… He is exciting to watch. He’s funny, his character is just so different and thats why I love him he’s real and tough as well. Oh and for comment below… Rivers is so good after being contacted that even when sacked, He just gets right back up again and makes plays… He just doesnt stop. Guess we’re gonna have to wait and see I feel Mondays game is gonna be a good one and Im gonna be there watching it!!!!! And they Better win, its my Burffday!!! I DONT WANNA GO AND HAVE TO BEAT A BRONCOS FAN!!! lol IM JoKing Go Bolts!!!
" A finger or two in the air shows how much we care"
by ChargersWitch on Oct 13, 2009 8:17 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
No....but nor would Eli Manning, Brady or Warner...probably not even Brees...
Rivers is ELITE….Orton will be VERY GOOD to excellent….I can just see Rivers getting blown up if you guys dont protect him…..and he will be feeling the heat this week. The Chargers have not seen as an agressive defense as this all season!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Oct 13, 2009 7:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baltimore’s not aggressive?
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John (obviousman) on Oct 13, 2009 8:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baltimore is CRAZY aggresive.
Hard hittn crazy talk aggressive… Rey Lewis alone is scary… See that hit with Ocho… Brutal!!!!
" A finger or two in the air shows how much we care"
by ChargersWitch on Oct 13, 2009 8:39 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Yep they are
" A finger or two in the air shows how much we care"
by ChargersWitch on Oct 14, 2009 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They are...
But not as good at CB as Denver. Baltimore has some problems on defense IMO….they are good for sure. Point taken. I just think Denver will bring as much if not more. Baltimore is the real deal though!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Oct 13, 2009 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tomatoes, tomaatoes
Boyd said “AS an aggressive defense as this..” And in that, he is correct. Take early stats for what you will, but Baltimore is ranked 26th against the pass versus Denver’s ranking of fifth. The Broncos have five more sacks than the Ravens and best them in interceptions, foced fumbles, and fumble recoveries.
And just to nip the so often used ‘but look who they’ve played’ argument… Denver has already beat two teams that the Ravens lost to. I would certainly say Denver fields the more aggressive defense and the better overall team.
by elvisalex on Oct 13, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He would be playing like he did at Chicago.
But with less ints than Rivers.
by Thnikkaman on Oct 13, 2009 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see some similarities between Rivers and Orton...
Both great leaders, both great competitors. Orton is calmer, Rivers has more fire….but they both compete.
Kyle Orton is the best leader we have had a quarterback since Elway….and is just getting better!
Rivers, IMO, is one of the Top 5 QB’s in the NFL, and this will inspire Orton, who is in the Top 10!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Oct 13, 2009 7:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he's becoming a leader
Then that’s a testament to McD alone. Orton was always known as the quiet, shy guy who wasn’t very good in the huddle. If McD has changed that then that is definitely a huge step for Orton.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
by Wonko on Oct 13, 2009 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What?
That is not what his team mates in Chicago said. Nor was that said about his time at Purdue. Even urlacher said they would miss his leadership.
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Oct 13, 2009 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know that I’d question what Wonko says about a Purdue QB…..
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John (obviousman) on Oct 14, 2009 4:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Huh, if only we ever had a stellar QB from Purdue on our team...
A much needed bye week; and two whole weeks to focus the inner hatred of UW even moreso than normal.
Locker...Welcome to my profile, You will be formally introduced by Juju at a later date, 10/23 to be more specific!
by CaDuck on Oct 14, 2009 8:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Better OL, better defense, lesser opposition...
… turns out better numbers, except YPA, which mostly has to do with the QB and WRs. Orton is a very likable QB: he doesn’t fit the heroic mold very well, and he gets it done with his head more than his arm, sort of an anti-Russell. I found myself quietly rooting for Chicago last year, and I’m a little bummed that we’ve lost our perfect villain.
In the big picture, this worries me very much, because those kinds of “game manager” guys we often have trouble with (yes, we ended Pennington and beat the bloody snot (literally) out of Garcia, but that was in part the years catching up to them and Orton doesn’t have to think about that so much yet). I still am glad we have Rivers and I think Rivers is a much better QB than Orton: as gamers they’re comparable, but Rivers is a vastly superior passer. Now he just needs a line that can keep him safe and give him a little running game to play off.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Oct 13, 2009 6:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Again....
Orton has faced better passing defenses this season.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John (obviousman) on Oct 13, 2009 7:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And has only really thrown a lot in one game. You will tend to get fewer picks and more wins when you play lesser teams. Even if those teams have better pass defenses, it won’t matter except to cause you to run the ball more and throw more safe passes, boosting PR.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Oct 13, 2009 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Broncos fan here
not here to talk smack but just wanted to say I feel for you. With all the injuries at RB last year we had to rely on culter to make the plays. It’s hard when your running game isn’t going. Your defense doesn’t help either. Talent wise you are certainly better on defense than the Bronco’s were last year. Get some of your guys healthy and I think you can make a push. I am routing for my team to win but then what fan doesn’t want their team to win.
Good luck on Monday
by papasteven on Oct 13, 2009 7:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Another Broncos Fan
Don’t want you to feel like we are invading your blog, but I just wanted to check out the competition. I wanted to let you know I thought this was a great article. Rec’d. It gave good insight and was even-keeled. Good job and good luck!
by RockyMountainThunder on Oct 13, 2009 7:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Denver had a 12th ranked rushing offense last year. The Chargers currently have a 32nd ranked rushing offense.
While it’s a very good comparison, I think Rivers may be slightly worse off right now than Cutler was last season. Things will get better if Merriman gets healthier and the young DTs progress further though.
By the way, I love non-trash-talking Broncos fans. You guys are awesome.
Side note: I have an uncle who is a HUGE Packers fan and has been for 40+ years. He also has a short fuse about sports that my family loves to set off. Two things that will set him off like no other are 4th & 26 and Elway’s “Leap”.
"I did not invent the wheel, I was the crooked spoke adjacent." - Aesop Rock
by John (obviousman) on Oct 13, 2009 7:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...but Rivers has a good brain and Cutler is devoid of one....
Thats what frustrated the hell out of some fans. You see Cutler vs Rivers and TALENT wise Cutler SHOULD be superior, but Rivers has TALENT and much better intangibles. And you cant coach intangibles like Rivers has.
Thats whay I am so happy we hav e Orton…has AWESOME intangibles, and a lot stronger arm than given credit for. The game on SUnday he was zinging them, and threw that Hail Mary 65-70 yards…so he can get it there!
Great post by the way John!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Oct 13, 2009 7:37 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Yeah.
I’d take Cutler over Orton maybe, but not by even one first-round pick, let alone two. But Rivers is Cutler-plus-Orton, ankle-deep in mud. And that’s what keeps this team in the debate as to whether they’re good or average as opposed to mediocre or stinky.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Oct 13, 2009 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d take either one over Romo.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Oct 13, 2009 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
True that.
I’d take almost anyone over Tony Oh-no.
John Clayton is the head Dean at Fail University (known as F.U. in short)
by Joe Medina on Oct 13, 2009 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We dig some good conversation with football fans
Heck…I was even talking to Dallas fans this year, and I hate Dallas almost as much as I hate the faders.
I agree with John’s point too…Denver had lots of injuries to the RB core last year, but they were fairly successful when they ran it. The bigger problem was the defense getting us in holes and then Bates translating that into throwing every down like a moron. But I digress….
Rec’d the article…great read and well written!
"Precipitation, which side are you on?
Are you on the rise? Are you falling down?
Let me know, Come on let's go, yeah
Got some if you need it!" -EV
by sadaraine on Oct 13, 2009 8:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know it was because of the scheme and the OL.
An RB would pile up 2-300 yards and then suffer a season ending injury. That happened what? … 6 or 7 times. But the scheme and the OL remained constant.
If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!
by Trinidad Jack on Oct 13, 2009 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks, we'll need it
I still say Norv sucks! I read after beating the pats McDaniel gave the players monday off for the first time all season.Don’t we have monday off every week? I also read where denver practiced for six hours on friday to get ready for the pats. Gee, imagine that, getting prepared for a game. I wonder if the chargers practice for six hours in a week. Also, all these injuries after norv takes over as coach, coincidence? Perhaps it’s because of a lack of conditioning. They were definetly overmatched by the raiders in the first game when most of the injuries occured. And, can anyone say they think the chargers are getting better each week? I can’t.
by irishlad on Oct 13, 2009 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes lack of conditioning
caused LT to get tackled from behind and his ankle rolled up on. As well as causing a Raider to blow up Hardwick on a dead play. It also caused Jamal and Bingham to tear their tricep and bicep muscles. This is a violent sport and injuries happen.
by Natrone Bomb on Oct 13, 2009 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
None of what you said made any sense.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Oct 13, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
does it ever?
A kid who has a unicorn ranch in his room cannot call other people weird. Yes, we know about "Rancho Unicorno."
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Oct 13, 2009 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not that I can recall.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Oct 13, 2009 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another...less respectful...Bronco fan here
Seriously, I wouldn’t be here but for the fact that your Chargers are just plain scary. Rivers is lights out as a deep passer, but also very immature (see: Cutler). Sproles is incredible, and we know it…look for a wall in front of him at all times. LT needs to step up in order for you to have a chance Monday. LT is your Ace in the hole…if he plays big, you have a shot.
But you better also find a way to slow down our juggrnaught Offense, as you all know we are weapon-heavy.
BRONCOS:24
CHARGERS: 14
BOOK IT!!
Vinny Gambino: "Ms. Devito, Can you tell the court what this is a picture of?"
Ms. Devito: "You know what it's of"
by Bronco_Fan_Tom on Oct 13, 2009 11:11 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don’t see this as being as close as the piece makes out for one reason. One player is carrying his team, one isn’t. Orton is doing well but give him a D, o-line and running game with the same quality as the current SD team and he’d be 0-4
by ramezes on Oct 13, 2009 11:16 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Thats what he had last year in Chicago and he went 9-7...should have been 10 -6 except for the last 5 second meltdown vs Atanta...
SO I am not sure I agree with you!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Oct 13, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chicago had the 7th best defense in the league last year. San Diego’s is 30th this year. That’s a slight difference.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Oct 13, 2009 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plus we’ve averaged 54 rushing yards per game so far this year @ 2.7 ypc. You can’t extrapolate that to compare it with Bears stats over the entire 2008 season because it wouldn’t be a true reflection, but unfortunately it is a true reflection of our inability to move the ball on the ground and the resulting pressure on the passing game this year
by ramezes on Oct 13, 2009 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bears were averaging 2.9 yards per carry. Forte carried a LOT though>
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Oct 13, 2009 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where did you get those stats from? NFL.com says it was 3.9 ypc and 105 ypg
Hardly ground breaking but grossly better than we’ve been playing – our running game has been an abomination this year. No-one has over 90 yards for the entire season and we’re 4 games in!
by ramezes on Oct 14, 2009 5:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry Ramezes...thats spose to 3.9...hit wrong key...one of those BAD one funger typers!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Oct 14, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No...they wre the 22nd ranked defense.
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Oct 13, 2009 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m going based off Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings not context-free total yards.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Oct 13, 2009 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good read John
I’m a long time Bronco fan, but I think I’d give Rivers the edge just based on talent. Plus he’s a gutsy player and I love that about him. Orton is just now coming into his own so to speak, mostly because the great coaching knows how to use his talents. It seems to me Rivers has been pressing a lot this year mostly due to an injured line and lack of the running game. When he and Vincent are on they are scarey good.
Well good luck to you and let’s hope for a competitive game on Monday.
by bchiper on Oct 13, 2009 2:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
nice write up.
As it stands right now, Orton is the better QB. If Rivers wins on Monday, then I’ll talk about equality. 5-0 does not equal 2-2 any day of the week. This isn’t your 2008 Broncos and you Charger fans had better ignore the MSM belief the Broncos are pretenders. I haven’t seen a defense like this in Orange and Blue since the early 80’s. Yes, even that 2006 unit that started out fast is not even close. The only simliarity there is pts given up…all the other categories the 2009 squad is dominate in whereas the 2006 squad were not. I wouldn’t expect you to hear that on ESPN though.
All things being equal, it is Monday Night and in San Diego….Broncos 23, Chargers 20 in a slugfest. Any more points scored, then I’d be more inclined to give the win to San Diego…the Denver O has yet to fill the shoes of its potential…but they are improving each week. Broncos on the upswing, Chargers on the downswing…this might be the last year the Chargers challenge for the division…unless you all get rid of Norv. :P
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
by Tim Lynch on Oct 13, 2009 2:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It seems like there is some confusion here
The Broncos are 5-0.
The Chargers are 2-2.
Kyle Orton is not 5-0. His team is.
Philip Rivers is not 2-2. His team is.
Try and be respectful of the other 52 guys on each team’s roster and not attribute a team’s record to the quarterback. It’s degrading to you, the sport, the QB and his team.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
by Wonko on Oct 13, 2009 2:30 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
Agree.
That’s something I hate hearing on the radio or seeing on television. A quarterback doesn’t get wins and losses, the team he’s on gets wins and losses. Does a quarterback help in both? Absolutely. But to be so arrogant as these people are and say that a QB is the only one who’s teams wins and losses should count for…well that’s just poor journalism, if you ask me.
For example, when Emmitt Smith was traded to Arizona, did he have a W/L column on his stat sheet? I doubt it.
John Clayton is the head Dean at Fail University (known as F.U. in short)
by Joe Medina on Oct 13, 2009 8:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
similar to pitchers in baseball
QBs have a greater impact on wins and losses than any other player on the field, and game success if often closely related to their performance. Although it may not be as big of a deal as some make it out to be, I disagree that wins and losses aren’t a valid stat for QBs.
by CoastalBronco on Oct 14, 2009 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So because they use a nonsensical stat in baseball
It makes doing it in football okay?
Good argument.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
by Wonko on Oct 14, 2009 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
you're so silly
Read the whole comment, captain sarcastic. Here’s the key bit:
“QBs [and pitchers] have a greater impact on wins and losses than any other player on the field, and game success is often closely related to their performance.”
Thus, wins and losses are one (not the only) reflection of QB (and pitcher) performance. Some QBs (and pitchers) win more than others, even with the same supporting cast.
by CoastalBronco on Oct 14, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They’re not a very good reflection, though. A quarterback can play poorly and still win. It’s a bad stat and it should be avoided when making a serious argument.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Oct 14, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I appreciate your clearly stated opinion, your lack of sarcasm, and your direct address of the issue, despite the finality in your exclusion of other perspectives.
You have a valid point, and of course the opposite is also true: a quarterback can play well and still lose. However, these occurrence even out over time. All stats benefit from more data, and wins and losses are no different.
The same can be said of any stat: a QB may have more or fewer TDs or INTs thrown in a select set of games, fewer or more yards, a higher or lower rating. A key point that seems to get missed win discussing the validity of wins is that any stat is affected by the performance of other players. For some reason, the argument that football is a “team sport” is limited to dismissing wins, when there is no statistic that isn’t affected by other players.
Because of a QBs significant impact on team performance, wins are a general reflection of how well a QB performs individually, while other stats measure the details. Wins have the additional benefit of including aspects that can’t be measured by other stats, such as leadership, game management, and decision making. I would expect that last sentence to drive a stat purist crazy.
Any stat is overvalued if other aspects of the game are ignored. Despite the opinion of some stat purists, wins are a perfectly reasonable consideration for evaluating QBs when viewed as one piece of the puzzle. And since I’ve gone there, statistics as a whole are really only one piece of the evaluation puzzle, as Orton’s TD pass to Stokley against the Bengals would indicate.
by CoastalBronco on Oct 14, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stat Purist?
Relating a team stat (wins) to one individual isn’t going to make sense no matter how much lipstick you put on that pig.
You try to poke at the people who are using stats, but you are using the win stat. You are so dedicated to this stat that you turn your back on all the logical arguments against it. All I ask is to find the information that best tries to prove something. If you are try to prove who is the best quarterback, you don’t use a stat that relies heavily on how the rest of the team plays. The proper, scientific way to go about it is to look at what aspects of quarterback lead to wins and use that to evaluate a quarterback. That way you can separate the team part from the individual part. If that requires a newer stat like DVOA or DYAR or something that hasn’t been invented yet, then so be it. If it requires a team of experts to evaluate performances to determine which QB does the most to win, then so be it. But, it most assuredly cannot be evaluated by looking at a highly context driven stat like a win that is reliant of 90+ individual players, a dozen coaches, a dozen referees, location, weather, wind conditions, and countless other factors.
I’m sorry, but you are the one too purist with your stat. The truth lies beyond the stat my friend. Knowledge is power.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
by Wonko on Oct 14, 2009 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
This is what I was getting at. Sure, look at all the stats, but don’t hang your argument on a lousy one when you have access to better ones.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Oct 15, 2009 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
e.g. Derek Anderson vs. the Bills, 10/11/09
A kid who has a unicorn ranch in his room cannot call other people weird. Yes, we know about "Rancho Unicorno."
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Oct 14, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I read the whole comment
trust me, it didn’t help your argument.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
by Wonko on Oct 14, 2009 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pass defenses faced by DVOA
Orton faced the 14th, 16th, 18th, 26th and 29th ranked pass defenses (Oak, Cin, NE, Dal and Cle respectively).
Rivers faced the 7th, 13th, 14th and 23rd ranked pass defenses (Bal, Mia, Oak and Pit respectively).
However, those were the numbers through week 4, but I don’t think they changed that much and unless they did, I don’t think I buy into the concept that Orton has faced better pass defenses.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
by Wonko on Oct 13, 2009 2:47 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Okay they updated it less than 10 minutes after I posted
I also think I may have transfixed some numbers. So here we go again:
Orton: 14, 17, 18, 21, 24 (Cin, Cle, Oak, NE, Dal) Avg DVOA = 17.7%
Rivers: 9, 18, 20, 25 (Bal, Oak, Mia, Pit) Avg DVOA = 16.1%
I’m comfortable in saying the Rivers has faced slightly better pass defenses. Bottom line though is that Rivers’ DVOA for the season (which accounts for pass defenses) is 18.8% and Orton is 26.6%. It’s a lot easier to just look at that and know that Orton is performing at a higher level than to go and average out some yardage and points scored by opponents where you are basically spending your precious time to figure out something that doesn’t help you prove the point. However, looking at what each QB has to work with, including the offensive line, the receivers and the time of possession are definitely important when trying to go beyond QB performance to understand which QB might be better.
One more though. Orton has yet to turn the ball over in any situation of consequence (hail mary’s at the end of the 1st half obviously don’t count) and Rivers has 3 interceptions and 2 fumbles. Those numbers alone are probably enough to show you why Orton has outperformed Rivers this year.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
by Wonko on Oct 13, 2009 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Philip Vs Kyle
kyle has a good quarterback teacher in Josh Mcdaniels but Philip is overall better buts lets see in Monday CHargers should be mad and kick denvers Ugly uniforms ass
by BFTB_zach on Oct 13, 2009 3:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I didn't even know there was a comparison to be made
Bewteen P.R and Orton. That is really not even close in my book.
P.R is WAAAAAY better than Orton.
A much needed bye week; and two whole weeks to focus the inner hatred of UW even moreso than normal.
Locker...Welcome to my profile, You will be formally introduced by Juju at a later date, 10/23 to be more specific!
by CaDuck on Oct 13, 2009 4:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
There's always this sort of intermingling of four concepts when comparing QBs
1. How good a season are they having?
2. How good a career have they had?
3. How good a quarterback are they?
4. How good a quarterback do they have the potential to be?
The first one seems to be what we are talking about here. However, it feels like swimming upstream to put Orton ahead of Rivers probably because the third concept feels like the one where Rivers should come out ahead. The second would seem to be all Rivers, which is probably why it feels like Rivers should win the third. The fourth is probably irrelevant for the conversation. I think we’ve probably seen the best of both QBs (although I’m sure some would argue that one or both will get better).
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
by Wonko on Oct 13, 2009 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dont agree...
I dont think we have seen the best of either QB.
Phillip Rivers is a Top 5 Qb…..Orton is currently a Top 10 QB.
Both have good records, with Orton having the best home record of any active QB at 18-2. His over all record is 26-12 which is pretty good.
I think the main difference is that people have already bought into Phil Rivers and rightly so.
People are now FINALLY giving Orton some cred and are “discovering” him, as is evidenced by winning AFC West Offensive Player of the Week.
Rivers is one year older, but both are still young! They still both have upside!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Oct 13, 2009 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dont think we have seen the best of either QB.
This. Both of these guys are still climbing the curve. Rivers is going to be a statistical monster for years to come, Orton is going to be the second coming of Chad.
by Neoplatonist Bolthead on Oct 13, 2009 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has a lot bigger arm than Chad, but would be stoked to have Chad's football smarts any day. Rivers is a smart cat as well!
Those that cant coach, compete!
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
All I want is 53 Rod Smiths. Is that asking too much????
"Peyton Hillis didn’t rip the sleeves off his jersey, they flew off out of fear."
Calijoefornia.
by boydy2669 on Oct 13, 2009 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's a cool picture.
admittedly, I like it.
I like Phillip RIvers’ style of play. I think he’s a solid quarterback. Of course the lovers quarrel between he and Jay Cutler left a sour taste in all of Broncos Countries’ mouth, it’s completely ignorant to say he’s not a good quarterback. I think Rivers deserved to be the number 2 QB in the Pro Bowl last year (behind P Manning). Cutler didn’t even deserve to go. That’s what I think.
John Clayton is the head Dean at Fail University (known as F.U. in short)
by Joe Medina on Oct 13, 2009 8:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Posts like this
make me cry.
Wisdom can not be cultivated through ignorance of information.
by Wonko on Oct 14, 2009 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sentient AIs can't cry.
Greg Maddux for manager.
by Zach (maestro876) on Oct 14, 2009 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
great read!
I, like a lot of Broncos fans, loved to hate Rivers when Jay was around, but that was pretty much all homerism and rivalry driven. Truth is, Rivers is an awesome quarterback who throws the absolute prettiest deep ball in the league. Comparing KO to Rivers — well, I love KO. Smart kid, careful, studious, he seems pretty unflappable. OK arm strength which is routinely underrated, but he is accurate and improving and coachable. Glad he is a Bronco. But Rivers is something else again. He can carry a mediocre team and on a good team he can take over a game. Kyle as abolt would struggle. Rivers with McD would be lights out.
by broncimo on Oct 13, 2009 10:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
As
always obviousman, a well written article. I too am a homer when it comes to the chargers, but Rivers definetly has the edge. Monday is a whole new season.
by GABOLT on Oct 13, 2009 10:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
PHILIP RIVERS FOR PRESIDENT!!!....of the local weblo's 14th district....YEAH!!!
Hey guys how’s it hangin’? Been workin a lot,just stopped to say waaazzzzzup!!!
Chance favors the prepared mind.......
by Gorditoe1 on Oct 14, 2009 2:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Good article John...Iam intrigued with the flow of traffic from all the Broncos fans...some are courtious and some SUCK...but nonetheless they are entitled to an opinion.
Chance favors the prepared mind.......
by Gorditoe1 on Oct 14, 2009 2:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But I digress......
Chance favors the prepared mind.......
by Gorditoe1 on Oct 14, 2009 2:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another Bronco fan
Though are allot of similarities between this years Chargers, and last years Broncos, I see one glaring difference. Rivers has been running for his life in and out of the pocket. He’s made some unbelievable throws under pressure too. However, last year Cutler had Ryan Clady, and had much better protection. Having said all that: I still think that SD is gonna give the Broncos a run for the AFC West title. Just like always……and even though I live in the SD area, I grew up in Denver, and will always root for the Broncos against the Boltz. It’s a great rivalry, one of the best in football, and I look forward to it every year.
by deepwater on Oct 14, 2009 3:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
To be honest, Last year our O-line still sucked massively
So he has been dealing with this predicament for some time now…
A much needed bye week; and two whole weeks to focus the inner hatred of UW even moreso than normal.
Locker...Welcome to my profile, You will be formally introduced by Juju at a later date, 10/23 to be more specific!
by CaDuck on Oct 14, 2009 8:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very good post, John (obviousman)
Although I thought you behaved like a jerk over at MHR, with your uncalled for scatological comparisons, this Post is as good as I’ve seen on the sbnation sites. Rec’d.
IT is, and it's impossible for IT not to be.
Parmenides (5th Century B. C. Greek)
by bradley on Oct 14, 2009 10:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Uncalled for scatological comparisons? Do tell!!
Well, if he said Jay Cutler plays like poop and Brandon Marshall is a piece of shit….well that’s just true.
A kid who has a unicorn ranch in his room cannot call other people weird. Yes, we know about "Rancho Unicorno."
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Oct 14, 2009 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd be happy if a fan from another team called Norv an asshole.
"He may look like an idiot and talk like an idiot but don't let that fool you. He really is an idiot" - Groucho Marx
by sdpads24 on Oct 14, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Norv's an asshole.
I’m not saying anything, I’m just sayin.
John Clayton is the head Dean at Fail University (known as F.U. in short)
by Joe Medina on Oct 14, 2009 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ROFL
We need to get rid of Norv in my opinion…. I dunno, I think we need a nice mix of Marty and Norv, Norv isn’t even giving the run a chance to be established, I am more than willing to sacrifice 1 or 2 3 and outs to try and get LT and sproles going. Also throw some more screens to Sproles already the man is a magician with a ball in his hands!!!!! GO BOLTS!!!!!!
Canada’s #1 Chargers fan
by HockeyFan on Oct 15, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure if your comment is serious...
Turner has been torn apart repeatedly for trying to establish the run when it “clearly” wasn’t working.
Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken
by Richard Wade on Oct 15, 2009 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rivers Might Be Better than Orton
but then again, that’s what everyone believes about Romo, Brady and even Carson Palmer. Nevertheless, we Broncos have won all of those games. This was actually a really good article and it’s nice to have AFC West dominance where it belongs again: in Bronco Country!
Brad James
by the Bradfather on Oct 20, 2009 2:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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