Can Pittsburgh be Beaten?

by Brian (DaBolts) on Jan 7, 2009 8:49 AM PST Comment 39 comments

The Steelers are going to be extremely tough to beat in their own stadium in January. The key to the Steelers is obviously an outrageously talented defense that defends well both against the run and the pass. How good are they? They didn't allow a single 100 yard rusher nor a three hundred yard passing game against them all year. They allowed only 223 points over the entire season, just under 14 points per game; when they played the Chargers this season the Bolts could muster only ten points. The Steeler offense is average; but coupled with the shutdown defense that is more than enough to notch a lot of wins.

Even with that stainless steel defense; the Steelers did lose four games over the course of the year. Philadelphia beat them early in the year 15-6. Philadelphia put monstrous pressure on Roethlisberger with 9 sacks and forcing three turnovers. The defensive scheme of the Eagles badly confused the Steeler offense who were not able to run or throw. The Eagle offense didn't achieve much, but didn't have to.

The second loss of the season was against the NY Giants. In this game the Giants knocked on the door repeatedly, but settled for four field goals. Roethlisburger was sacked five times and threw four interceptions. The Steelers were playing without a number of key players on defense and finally tired in the fourth quarter surrendering a touchdown through the air to pick up the victory 21-14.

Indianapolis was also able to beat Pittsburgh at home. It was a tough fight that again keyed off of Roethlisberger mistakes, he ended up throwing three interceptions and getting sacked twice. Manning was able to capitalize with one lucky deflected pass going long, but was able to pass for two other touchdowns, one late in the half, the other at the end of the fourth quarter. Indianapolis was particularly effective against Pittsburgh's running attack allowing just over two yards per carry.

Pittsburgh most recent loss was to the Titans who look to have blown the Steelers out 31-14. That is a little deceptive as Roethlisberger threw the pick six late in the game trying to come back. Roethlisberger was sacked five times and threw two interceptions. The other key was five fumbles, leading to two more turnovers. The Titans went +4 on turnovers and were the only team to gain more than 300 yards against the Steelers. They also put together an 80 yard drive for a TD that consisted mostly of rushes and passes to their tight end Crumpler.

After looking at these games a few themes emerge. Pressure on Roethlisberger is one key to achieving turnovers and getting a short field against this defensive unit. The one long drive I see was keyed off shorter passes up the middle to the tight end; I expect that Gates could be huge in this game. In these games Roethlisberger also didnd't play as well from behind; he threw a lot of interceptions when trying to forge a comeback. The Chargers can't turn the ball over when they are in field goal range; they have to take every point they can get. In three out of four losses Pittsburgh's running game was held to 3 or less yards per carry; shutting down the running game will be critical.

Teams do seem to catch Pittsburgh sometimes on deep plays later in the game; I would leave any gadget plays or stretch plays until the second half. The weather will also weigh against the stretch type plays. Scifres could end up being huge again if the Chargers end up swapping punts with Pittsburgh; if the Bolts can couple that with reasonable returns from Sproles the Chargers can gain a big field position advantage. Pittsburgh punt coverage is bound to be better than the Colts however. This is going to be a tough low scoring game; Pittsburgh in January is going to be a tough nut to crack.

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Good article that can be summed up with your one sentence: Pressure on Roethlisberger is one key to achieving turnovers and getting a short field against this defensive unit. I’d go so far as to say it is THE key.

A few corrections/quibbles:
You called our offense good. You’re a very generous person.
Roethlisberger plays very well from behind – especially this year, just not against TEN. The drive against SD in the 4th has been a staple.
Deep plays have not worked thus far this year early or late in the game against the defense. Two exceptions – tipped pass against colts, and one other this year I can’t remember.
We have the best ST coverage team in the league, and the worst at ST returns.

by steelguy99 on Jan 7, 2009 9:28 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Chargers offense

Was 5th best in the league in 2008. I’d say you can qualify 5th best as good.

1-10-DEN 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Castillo (95-S.Phillips) at DEN 18. 93-L.Castillo to DEN 14 for 4 yards (62-C.Wiegmann). 6-J.Cutler pouts ob to DEN 25 for 11 yards.

by Wonko on Jan 7, 2009 9:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

Wasn’t paying enough attention. Good, is definitely a generous term for the Steelers offense. 20th best in the league is average at best.

Plus, I was off on the Chargers anyway. They had the 3rd best offense. Today is not starting out well.

by Wonko on Jan 7, 2009 10:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Good Points

You called our offense good. You’re a very generous person.

Perhaps ‘good enough’ is better. This is a little hard to qualify; the Steelers were about 50-60 yards behind the Chargers per game; but over 100 yards better on defense.

Roethlisberger plays very well from behind – especially this year, just not against TEN. The drive against SD in the 4th has been a staple.

I shouldn’t have made sweeping statements based on the small group I looked like. But in these losses he performed badly when behind. Against the Eagles when behind in the fourth quarter he fumbled and took a deadly safety and then lost possession on downs. Against the Giants in the fourth quarter he fumbled for the safety, turned it over on downs and then threw the pick. Against Indy in the fourth quarter he threw the pick and had time expire on his final drive (to be fair he wasn’t behind when he threw the pick). Against Tennessee he had two punts and the pick in the fourth quarter (and one as the third was winding down).

Now all those teams have better pass defenses than the Chargers. In looking over situational stats though; he does have a better QB rating when behind than ahead; so clearly these games are not representative. I really appreciate your corrections; and the content and attitude of you and the Steeler fans in general.

"Football is a physical sport, sometimes you have a disagreement on what's going on, and you have a discussion about it." Kris Dielman

by Brian (DaBolts) on Jan 7, 2009 12:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think what you’re missing in your analysis of those four games is that Ben looked bad all game, not just when we were behind.

The eagles game was the hardest game of the year on this team. Ben was sacked 9 times while deep balls were constantly called by the OC, and the running game was a complete failure – when you are sacked all game, pressured when you aren’t, and haven’t scored all game, mistakes are going to happen.

Giants: I don’t remember him fumbling for the safety? I remember our backup long-snapper hiking the ball over the punters head. Ben threw four interceptions in this game, and three of them were when the steelers had the lead.

Indy: Ben threw three picks and fumbled once, three of them when we were ahead or tied and the last one in desperation as time expires.

Ten: Ben throws two picks and fumbles four times. The fourth quarter was not an outlier, just more of the same.

The above four games demonstrate how bad Ben can be, but the only statement of yours I disagree with is that Ben is bad when playing from behind. Ben (and the O-line!) were bad throughout most of the above games in terms of turnovers, it wasn’t the pressure that did it.

Now to contrast, there are quite a few games that were won in the last quarter this year by late game drives: SD, BAL, BAL again, JAC, DAL. He has something like 18 4th quarter comebacks in his career of 5 years, which puts him on the same pace as Elway (though there’s no way with our O-line he makes it that long or that I’m comparing the two beyond that stat). Ben has his problems, but coming back from a deficit is not one of them.

Our defense keeps us in almost every game this year long enough for Ben to get it together. This is also why the chargers have a very real chance of winning – the score is likely to be pretty close late.

by steelguy99 on Jan 7, 2009 12:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Turnovers

are going to be the only key to this game. If the Chargers are -2, they are done (unlike the Indy game). Even if they manage to tie the turnover battle, I think the Bolts will have a hard time winning this game. Pressure the QB and force bad passes, which in turn result in turnovers. One other thing, the defense needs to make good on those opportunities when they arise. I can’t even remember how many times balls have hit the Bolt’s secondary right in the hands, and then subsequently hit the ground. I guess that’s why these guys play D, and not O. Regardless, the Bolts D needs to step it up. We all know the Steelers D will be putting the pressure on all night.
And I agree with steelguy99, the Pitt O is really not that good either. Anything can happen in inclement weather though.

by Clip Show on Jan 7, 2009 9:43 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

great post

i have to agree with just about everything you wrote there. some of my early thoughts on what is sure to be a fantastic game: i don’t think LT is going to be a factor in this game due to his injury and i don’t believe sproles is going to be very effective against pitt’s run defense, though they’ve had fits defending little speedy backs out of the backfield on screens and swing plays. the chargers defense is better than the first time pitt faced them and its gonna be a struggle for the steelers to get their run game going if they can get it going at all. if ben turns the ball over more than twice – game over, chargers win. if harrison and woodley start getting to rivers consistently – game over, steelers win. its gonna be hard for scrifes to repeat his phenomenal performance against the colts at heinz – i personally think he used up all his mojo but nonetheless the winds there are ridiculous and unpredictable – hope for a still calm. i think pitt’s o-line HAS improved but that may well be like saying the bengals improved as the season went on.
enjoy the game – good luck to your team. i’m praying for bitter, bitter cold.

by SE7ENS on Jan 7, 2009 9:47 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

It won’t be hard for scrifes, he’s that good – the colts game wasn’t a fluke. Do you remember his punt after the safety? Jesus christ.

I don’t know about the chargers run D. I didn’t watch the last few games so it’s hard to say. By the stats teams were able to have good success, but the broncos having a good running day doesn’t mean crap because so much of it is situational. Same thing with KC, OAK, etc. The pass D, pressure and coverage, seemed decent against the colts, what can the chargers fan say about the run D as it stands now?

by steelguy99 on Jan 7, 2009 9:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Run D is working a little better

The key to the Chargers on defense this year is execution. They spent half the season being out of position and using terrible technique for tackling. When you combine that with the loss of a force like Merriman, the run defense was in shambles. Since the bye week the run defense has been the biggest improvement on the entire team. Even if you account for some of the bad run offenses the Chargers faced, they were still performing at a much higher level, mainly due to their execution. Tackling is better, guys don’t lose contain as much and there are even some run blitzes thrown in to disrupt the timing of the rushing attack. This is far and away the most improved part of the Chargers defense and it makes the pass defense look better because the opposing team ends up in less favorable situations.

by Wonko on Jan 7, 2009 10:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

This is a completely subjective question, but where would you rank the SD defense now in the run/pass/total out of 32 vs. where it is ranked overall?

by steelguy99 on Jan 7, 2009 10:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

IMO

This Chargers team is average against the pass (15th sounds about right) and stout against the run (7th or 8th). Overall I’d say Rivera’s defense would end up 12th or 13th in terms of total defense.

Here’s the one thing to remember about the Chargers….we ALWAYS play better in the second half. Especially the defense. This is why I go into every game saying “if we’re tied or winning at half time, we’re going to win.” Just something to keep in mind when you’re watching the game. If our defense is good enough to hold Pittsburgh to a tie with us at half-time, we’re probably going to come out with a great offense and a defense that shuts down Pittsburgh.

by John (obviousman) on Jan 7, 2009 10:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn’t bet on a second half comeback if only because you’re going against a team that is similar. The third quarter point differential for the steelers is enormous, and the fourth quarter is pretty good too.

by steelguy99 on Jan 7, 2009 11:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Based on the 2nd half numbers

The total defense was around 18th in the league according to DVOA. I’m not sure what the run defense was.

by Wonko on Jan 7, 2009 1:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

agreed...scrifes is damn good

but the odds of having a another performance like the last one AND doing it in the swirling winds of heinz….well, i don’t know what the odds are but they have to be pretty steep. not saying hes gonna have a paul ernster kind of day but i dont expect another ray guy performance…just sayin.

by SE7ENS on Jan 7, 2009 10:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

True, he did pretty well, but he has historically put together ridiculous performances back to back.

What’s the deal with scifres averages guys? How do you go from mid-50s average to mid-30s then back to mid-40s?

by steelguy99 on Jan 7, 2009 11:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Depends a lot on where on the field he’s punting from.

Bolts from the Blue // "Game over." - Jamal Williams
Bloody Elbow // "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." - H.L. Mencken

by Richard Wade on Jan 7, 2009 12:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What do you mean by that? I could see his average being a lot lower if he’s punting from the 50 every punt, but when you have a string of games where the average is sub-40 it seems strange to me.

by steelguy99 on Jan 7, 2009 1:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Kinda useless

But i would still put at around 14. We are playing great defense as of now, but our problems still exist.

Jamal Williams - "Game Over"

by soulSD on Jan 7, 2009 10:30 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

i think this game is strength/strength and weakness/weakness

1. The Chargers high powered offense vs the Steelers redonkulous defense. I’d have to give a slight edge to Pitt since they’re playing at home, but normally in a strength-strength matchup i’d give the advantage to the offense, since they at least know what they are going to run pre-play, and aren’t reacting. The difference here being that Polomalu might be the best read and react safety in the league. he is on the ball EVERY PLAY. Wild Card – Darren Sproles. say what you want about his size, but i think thats his biggest strength. he is next to impossible to practice for. the man is the strongest pound for pound guy on the team (he benches double his weight), and he completely disappears behind the O-Line.

2. The Steelers Offense vs the Chargers Defense. the steelers offense didn’t really wow me that much this year (trust me, with santonio on my fantasy team for the 2nd straight year i was watching in horror all of the 20 point games you guys were throwing around). however i think that plays right in to our defense’s weakness, which is holding up against he pass. with our inability to consistently pressure the QB, our CBs are left hanging out there for 5 seconds a pass. and that is almost physically impossible to defend against. our run defense is strong, your running game is strong.

i think its going to be a great game, that comes down to field position. there is one category where we have a decided advantage. i was at the game sunday, and i had never seen a punter win a game until then. mike scifres is in the zone right now, and i think that once again he brings us a W, in a very hotly contested game. i think its decided in the last two drives.

pooping not

www.wellbelowthemendozaline.blogspot.com

by justdave on Jan 7, 2009 1:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Anyone who had a pittsburgh steeler on their fantasy team was in trouble, but if you played the pit D…

It’s always easy to go back to the SD game vs. Pit to see what could happen. It seems like most people here believe that SD has improved dramatically since then. I agree they have improved. I will say though that we had one of our best games offensively against the chargers, both in the air and on the ground. The points didn’t show it which will of course need to change, but we moved the ball against SD better than just about every team we’ve played not from Ohio. I think we’ll find out on Sunday if the steelers can do that again or if the defense needs to hold SD to 0 points for the steelers to win.

by steelguy99 on Jan 7, 2009 1:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

good point

i do think that we are playing dramatically better football at this point, but its one of those things that you have to have been watching these guys for a while to see.

they are reaching for the first down marker instead of jumping out of bounds. the RBs are breaking one more tackle. the WRs are running crisper routes. Filthy Phil is making smarter throws (throwing away screens instead of taking sacks or heaving the ball up deep). our DBs are interfering less. Weddle figured out how to play. Scifres is unconscious.

it’s going to be a hell of a game. i can’t wait.

pooping not

www.wellbelowthemendozaline.blogspot.com

by justdave on Jan 7, 2009 1:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

X Factor = Playcalling/Gameplan

As many bad things as can be said about Norv, I really like how he saves some wrinkles for important games. I noticed this in the playoffs last year when I started seeing plays that I had never seen the Chargers run before.

The Chargers offensive gameplan against the Steelers was pretty good in the regular season. Execution was the big issue as a couple of deep balls were dropped that could have been big plays or touchdowns. Most teams will try to break down what a team is currently doing by looking at the last 4 games on film (I heard Rivers say this on Monday, I think Axion linked the interview in fanshots). That’s a problem for the Steelers since the Chargers have played 4 straight games against Cover-2 style defenses. I’m sure they’ll find some other film to look at, but if the lack of film hurts the Steeler D’s gameplan for the Chargers, then I like the offense’s chances.

by Wonko on Jan 7, 2009 1:24 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

Every single game we’ve tried to convince fans to not worry about breaking down their offense. This game hinges on the SD defense vs. the steelers offense. I’m not saying the SD offense can’t look good against the steelers, I’m just saying that it’s an awful lot more likely your defense will win you the game, regardless of how good your offense may be.

by steelguy99 on Jan 7, 2009 1:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

pooping not

www.wellbelowthemendozaline.blogspot.com

by justdave on Jan 7, 2009 1:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not worried about the Steelers offense

I’m pretty comfortable in saying that the Chargers D will hold them under 20 points. The question is, can the Chargers offense attack the Steelers D and stay away from turnovers enough to rack up 20 points (or whatever is needed). At least, that was the difference last time and finding an edge against the Steelers D is a sure way to start demoralizing them. I get the feeling that no matter how many times the Chargers sack or intercept Ben, it won’t affect their psyches too much.

by Wonko on Jan 7, 2009 3:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I see what you’re saying.

The only thing I’d say in response is that I’ve seen the steelers offense completely taken out of the game, but I’ve never seen that happen to the defense. If your offense can score more than 21 or so on the steelers, than the chargers deserve the AFCC.

by steelguy99 on Jan 7, 2009 5:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Damn Right!

by Wonko on Jan 7, 2009 5:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

We'd be in elite company with

Tennessee…

and who is that team we beat last week…
they had the MVP right…
it’s on the tip of my tongue…

by Wonko on Jan 7, 2009 5:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh come on, we all know that the MVP thing was a joke.

The titans I have no answer for – if the D plays like that it is game over. There are lots of excuses as to why the D performed like they did on BTSC, but bottom-line is it could happen again. I doubt it though.

by steelguy99 on Jan 7, 2009 5:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It’d help if you got 4 turnovers too.

by steelguy99 on Jan 7, 2009 5:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Field Position!!!

I think my Pittsburgh Defense will stop you guys a lot but the main thing in this game is “Field Position.” If your punter keeps giving us position at the 0-10 yd line then it will be a rough day because if we go three and out and our punter gives it to you at the 40-50 yd line then sooner or later you guys will rack up field goals.

Putting pressure on Ben is key to you guys’ game plan but Ben can scramble and can make good plays under pressure as well as bad ones. We need about 2-3 turnovers on you guys and I think we will win if Rivers makes bad decisions and Sproles is immobilized.

Last but not least, you guys won’t win this game if you don’t play 4 QUARTERS!! Not 3 or 3.5 but 4 quarters. Thats one thing I have faith in the Steelers this year for is that they play all quarters especially the 4th.

I expect this one to be close and low-scored.

by SteelChad88 on Jan 7, 2009 1:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

you can always count on the chargers to play the 4th quarter

its the 1st through the 3rd that are a little dodgy…

pooping not

www.wellbelowthemendozaline.blogspot.com

by justdave on Jan 7, 2009 1:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

good

cause we kinda suck coming out of the gate.

by Bleed-Black&Gold on Jan 7, 2009 1:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

ahh

strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness yet again

pooping not

www.wellbelowthemendozaline.blogspot.com

by justdave on Jan 7, 2009 3:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

hahaha i just looked at the injury report

Chaz Batch is on IR???

you guys are TOAST!!

pooping not

www.wellbelowthemendozaline.blogspot.com

by justdave on Jan 7, 2009 4:58 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Who's the backup

Maddox?

Brady Hoke, Al Borges, and Rocky Long. Aztec football is back!

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jan 7, 2009 6:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Leftwich!!!!!

by Wonko on Jan 7, 2009 7:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey guys, dolphin fan here, of course they can be beaten, especially by a team like you

Offensively you can put points on the board we all know that, even against Pit, the key is going to be what you do on the defensive side of the ball. If you play like you did against Indy, containing the run and trying to make them one dimensional and get pressure on Ben I think you got a shot.

by MauMontaV5 on Jan 7, 2009 7:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs