Chargers-Raiders Success & Stop Rates
by Richard Wade on Sep 29, 2008 4:41 PM PDT
34 comments
I don't have time to write anything about the numbers just yet, but I finished compiling them and thought I'd put them up on their own for now.
Chargers Offensive Success Rate:
| Overall | 41.0% | 25/61 |
| Pass | 48.5% | 16/33 |
| Run | 32.1% | 9/28 |
| 1st Down | 37.0% | 10/27 |
| 2nd Down | 47.4% | 9/19 |
| 3rd Down | 35.7% | 5/14 |
| 1stPass | 53.8% | 7/13 |
| 1stRun | 21.4% | 3/14 |
| 2ndPass | 62.5% | 5/8 |
| 2ndRun | 36.4% | 4/11 |
| 3rdPass | 27.3% | 3/11 |
| 3rdRun | 66.7% | 2/3 |
| 1st Quarter | 18.2% | 2/11 |
| 2nd Quarter | 42.9% | 6/14 |
| 3rd Quarter | 47.6% | 10/21 |
| 4th Quarter | 46.7% | 7/15 |
| 1stPass | 28.6% | 2/7 |
| 1stRun | 0.0% | 0/4 |
| 2ndPass | 54.5% | 6/11 |
| 2ndRun | 0.0% | 0/3 |
| 3rdPass | 57.1% | 4/7 |
| 3rdRun | 42.9% | 6/14 |
| 4thPass | 50.0% | 4/8 |
| 4thRun | 42.9% | 3/7 |
Chargers Defensive Stop Rate:
| Overall | 59.1% | 39/66 |
| Pass | 57.8% | 26/45 |
| Run | 61.9% | 13/21 |
| 1st Down | 55.6% | 15/27 |
| 2nd Down | 47.8% | 11/23 |
| 3rd Down | 80.0% | 12/15 |
| 4th Down | 100.0% | 1/1 |
| 1stPass | 56.3% | 9/16 |
| 1stRun | 54.5% | 6/11 |
| 2ndPass | 30.8% | 4/13 |
| 2ndRun | 70.0% | 7/10 |
| 3rdPass | 80.0% | 12/15 |
| 3rdRun | N/A | N/A |
| 4thPass | 100.0% | 1/1 |
| 4thRun | N/A | N/A |
| 1st Quarter | 61.1% | 11/18 |
| 2nd Quarter | 50.0% | 7/14 |
| 3rd Quarter | 66.7% | 4/6 |
| 4th Quarter | 60.7% | 17/28 |
| 1stPass | 61.5% | 8/13 |
| 1stRun | 60.0% | 3/5 |
| 2ndPass | 57.1% | 4/7 |
| 2ndRun | 42.9% | 3/7 |
| 3rdPass | 60.0% | 3/5 |
| 3rdRun | 100.0% | 1/1 |
| 4thPass | 55.0% | 11/20 |
| 4thRun | 75.0% | 6/8 |
Don't forget to hit the Rec button.
UPDATE: Starting with the offense, the thing that jumps out at me is the drastically different levels of success passing on early downs versus passing on third down and the inverse seen with the run. It appears based on the numbers (I haven't re-watched the game yet) the issue was that the Chargers insisted on the run/run/pass formula which consisted of short run, short run, long pass attempt. Obviously that didn't work. However, when they changed things up and threw early, they were able to actually pick up yards. Also, they converted both third and short rush attempts (one a 2-yard pick up by Sproles and the other a nice 11 yard gainer by Tolbert).
I was also a little surprised to see that we had a success rate of at least 50% passing the ball in the final three quarters. Less surprising is that we did not have even one successful running play in the first half. The 18% success rate overall in the first quarter was just incredibly bad, but quarters two through three were at least respectable.
On the defensive side of the ball, what can you really say? They were outstanding. Outside of second down passes and second quarter runs, they stopped better than 50% of all other plays, perhaps most impressively the dominant 80% stop rate on third down. When you have a 60% stop rate in three of four quarters and a 50% or better stop rate in all four, you're probably going to win. I have nothing negative to say about the way the defense played except that Clinton Hart blew a coverage that led to a long pass TD. They really stepped up their play overall and they won this game.
This FanPost was written by a member of the Bolts From The Blue community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Bolts From The Blue editors or SB Nation.
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How are you defining "offensive success"?
… to determine the success rate.
I’m surprised rushing success is only 32%.
by CoastalBronco on Sep 29, 2008 4:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Success Rate
45% on first down, 60% on second down, 100% on third and fourth down.
Similarly, stop rate is less than 45, less than 60 and less than 100%.
by Richard Wade on Sep 29, 2008 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, I need more clarification
Just want to make sure I understand correctly. The percentages relate to yards to go? In other words:
Success is if the team gains greater than 45% of yards to go on 1st down (e.g. 4.5 yards for 1st and 10; 6.75 yards for 1st and 15)?
Apologies for being dense.
by CoastalBronco on Oct 2, 2008 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No need for apologies.
You understand correctly. Percentage of yards to go on each down.
Apologies for being unclear.
by Richard Wade on Oct 2, 2008 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Defense was Killer
Obviously
People the world over have always been more impressed by the power of our example than by the example of our power.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Sep 29, 2008 4:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
80% on 3rd Down
Daddy Like
People the world over have always been more impressed by the power of our example than by the example of our power.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Sep 29, 2008 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No kidding.
80% on 3rd down is just brutal.
by Richard Wade on Sep 29, 2008 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
All passes on 3rd down
I assume that indicates consistent 3rd and long for Oakland.
2nd down run defense was almost equally brutal at 70%.
by CoastalBronco on Sep 29, 2008 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oddly enough...
One 3rd & 1, fourth 3rd & 2, one 3rd & 3, three 3rd & 5, two 3rd & 6, two 3rd & 8, one 3rd & 11 and one 3rd & 13.
by Richard Wade on Sep 29, 2008 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
First Quarter
Supposed to be 61% not 137%
People the world over have always been more impressed by the power of our example than by the example of our power.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Sep 29, 2008 4:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
(Defense)
People the world over have always been more impressed by the power of our example than by the example of our power.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Sep 29, 2008 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gah. I don’t know what the hell I did there.
by Richard Wade on Sep 29, 2008 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, I typed 11/8 instead of 11/18.
by Richard Wade on Sep 29, 2008 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting Stats
I should be thanking you. :-)
"If two hitherto rival football teams, under the influence of brotherly love, decided to co-operate in placing the football first beyond one goal and then beyond the other, no one's happiness would be increased" Bertrand Russell
by Brian (DaBolts) on Sep 29, 2008 8:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks once again Richard.
Great stuff!
We're gonna dazzle you with our super play.
by soulSD on Sep 29, 2008 11:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
rec'd
Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you?
by Axion on Sep 30, 2008 11:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
On second thought
This feature needs a Bolt-related name.
Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you?
by Axion on Sep 30, 2008 11:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Sabrelectrics?
Homer: Ohhhh, The Denver Broncos.
Marge: Whats wrong with the Denver Broncos?
Homer: Marge you just don't understand football.
by Wonko on Sep 30, 2008 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking something electrical, using the word "ground" maybe
Grounding the Charge
Ground Rates
Terminating Circuit
Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you?
by Axion on Oct 1, 2008 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you guys come up with something I’ll change the title. Rather, if you guys come up with something good, I’ll change it.
by Richard Wade on Oct 1, 2008 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I don't have anything that really pops yet.
I’ll keep thinkin’ about it.
Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you?
by Axion on Oct 1, 2008 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smells Like Padres in Here?
People the world over have always been more impressed by the power of our example than by the example of our power.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Oct 1, 2008 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I inherited that title
And when I used the acronym, I really meant “Stinks” :D
Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you?
by Axion on Oct 1, 2008 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Name ideas
Sparks
Boltage Voltage
Volts from the Bolts
Electric Company
Electric Company Rates
Amped Up
Amperage Ratings
or any combination thereof.
by CoastalBronco on Oct 2, 2008 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Impressive
Most Impressive. But you are not a jedi yet.
People the world over have always been more impressed by the power of our example than by the example of our power.
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Oct 2, 2008 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or a Charger (war horse) related one...
by Richard Wade on Oct 2, 2008 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anti-cavalry!
Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you?
by Axion on Oct 2, 2008 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I knew you guys were going to hold it against me
But I figured I throw them in, anyway. You don’t even have to credit me if you choose one of ’em. :)
I’ll save the horse related ones for a different team…
by CoastalBronco on Oct 2, 2008 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha!
nothing horseshoe related comes to mind.
by CoastalBronco on Oct 2, 2008 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some other stats
-Rivers is 4th in both defense adjusted yards over replacement level (DYAR) and defense adjusted value over average (DVOA) with 397 DYAR and 35.1% DVOA. He’s being let down a little by his receivers, he has the 3rd lowest catch percentage (64.5) of anyone in the top 10. Only Sheli and Pennington have had more ball catching troubles.
-LT is 19th in success rate at 45
-LT is 9th in DYAR with 57
-LT is 14th in DVOA with 10.0%
-Michael Turner is #1 in DYAR, #8 in DVOA (Guess they like running with him), and 5th in success rate (53).
-Sproles doesn’t qualify for rankings (32 carries req’d) but has 28 DYAR and a 23.9 DVOA
-Tolbert has the 3rd most receiving DYAR for a RB with 68 and leads the league with a DVOA of 85.1!
-LT has struggled at receiving with a -26 DYAR and a -47.0 DVOA (ouch, stop dropping balls LT!)
-Tolbert has caught 91% of the balls thrown his way. LT only 77.
-Chris “Butterfingers” Chambers somehow has 71 DYAR (17th) and 27.0 DVOA (13th) despite only catching 40% of the balls thrown his way. That’s quite amazing consider nobody else with positive numbers has a catching % that low (TO has catch 47% and has positive DYAR and DVOA).
-Vincent Jackson has caught 60% of his passes, but is ranked 24nd with 61 DYAR and 22nd with 18.5% DVOA.
-Gates is 5th among TEs with 58 DYAR and 8th with 28.2% DVOA and is catching balls at 65%.
Homer: Ohhhh, The Denver Broncos.
Marge: Whats wrong with the Denver Broncos?
Homer: Marge you just don't understand football.
by Wonko on Sep 30, 2008 2:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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