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Oakland Raiders - Offense

Jamarcus Russell was the number one pick in 2007 for Oakland, but due to a lengthy holdout didn't really see action until later that season.  His first start came against the Chargers when he mostly looked like a rookie, but he did throw one thirty yard dart for a TD.  In 2008 Russell has not been called on too much and has continued to make rookie mistakes.  In their last preseason game the Raiders tried to go to a passing attack, but neither Russell nor the offensive line held up very well.  The Raiders spent some money to bring in WR Javon Walker, but so far he has only caught two passes for 18 yards, that is about $850,000 per catch, nice work if you can get it.  Walker was assaulted in Vegas over the summer having his orbital bone broken; he has made some retirement talk and comes across as being unstable.  The Raiders are so hard up for wideouts that they have picked up Ashlie Lelie, a bust with the Broncos from way back.  Right now their leading receiver is Johnie Lee Higgins with one reception for 84 yards, but that was a short pass with broken tackles.  This team just does not have good targets or pass protection right now.  The Raiders are truly one dimensional on offense.

The Raiders offense ranks 30th in passing yards but second in rushing yards.  With a backfield that includes Darren McFadden and Michael Bush; they have the horses to run.  While the offense looked anemic against Denver, it roared back with 335 ground yards against KC.  They also put a pretty good Buffalo team on the ropes last week, before the Raider defense folded late and they came away 1-2.  McFadden reportedly has a bit of turf toe, so that may reduce his effectiveness and Justin Fargas is likely to be out with a groin injury.  Last week against Buffalo the Raiders managed only 98 rushing yards, but Buffalo has a fine defense.  The Raiders are averaging 20 points a game and 300 yards; the Bolts 37 points and 375 yards/game.

Despite running the ball well the Raiders offensive line is suspect in spots.  They picked up Kwame Harris at left tackle in the offseason, who had a pretty dubious time in San Francisco.  At center they have a second round pick, Jake Grove who sat out all 2007 on IR; the Raiders replaced Newberry with him this year.  Robert Gallery was the number two pick in the nation, but has largely been considered a bust; he is reportedly out to prove that wrong.  Tom Cable, a zone blocking guru has this unit run blocking pretty well, but they just don't stand up well in passing downs.

In the Tight End position, the Raiders must be filling a little weak because they just picked up Ben Troupe.  He had two good years when he broke in, but the last two seasons have been a bust.  He was released by Tampa Bay most recently.  Zach Miller is the Raiders blocking TE but doesn't seem to catch much.  From the Chargers standpoint the main concern is that the Raiders strength fits in pretty well with their weak run defense.  In this game the Raiders need to establish the run and keep the ball away from the Charger offense; they will also need to play mistake free football, both Bush and McFadden have already lost a fumble this year.

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This article is kind of backwards

Right now the Raiders passing offense is 8.4% above average (ranked 13) and their running offense is -8.4% (ranked 25th). The Raiders rushing yards are probably built of of useless long third down runs that don’t make first downs. The passing yards are probably pumped up by converting some unlikely third downs. They also run more than they pass so the overall offense is -2.7%.

If you adjust for opponents it’s probably even worse given the bad defenses in KC and Den.

Homer: Ohhhh, The Denver Broncos.
Marge: Whats wrong with the Denver Broncos?
Homer: Marge you just don't understand football.

by Wonko on Sep 25, 2008 1:31 PM PDT   0 recs

I'll disagree

They run a lot more than they pass because that is their strength. The Raiders are running for a whopping 183 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry; they are passing for a paltry 130 yards per game, good for 31st in the league. Their completion rate is a paltry 51%; I’m not seeing their passing attack being the main threat. They do have three TDs and no interceptions through the air, maybe that is what the stats are saying.

"If two hitherto rival football teams, under the influence of brotherly love, decided to co-operate in placing the football first beyond one goal and then beyond the other, no one's happiness would be increased" Bertrand Russell

by DaBolts on Sep 25, 2008 2:16 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Going by success rate, McFadden is 26th and Bush is 18th. That suggests that their high per carry average is bolstered by long-ish runs on third and second and long. Their lack of success running is probably due to teams knowing that they are a run first team and that they don’t really need to respect the pass. Other teams’ lack of respect for the pass is probably what has contributed to their above average production when they actually do throw the ball.

by Richard on Sep 25, 2008 7:06 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Correction

Bush is 22nd. The other Bush is 18th.

by Richard on Sep 25, 2008 7:07 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Their success rate

on third downs is around 25%; if we are saying they don’t convert many third downs and most fail on rush attempts I can agree with that. But I suspect the reason they don’t convert has as much to do with the weakness in their passing game and that they have to run. Against KC they put up 14 rushing first downs and 2 passing first downs. Now if they were 2/2 in passing first down attempts but only 12/24 on rushing third downs, I’m not sure how much that really tells you about the strength of their pass versus the strength of their run.

"If two hitherto rival football teams, under the influence of brotherly love, decided to co-operate in placing the football first beyond one goal and then beyond the other, no one's happiness would be increased" Bertrand Russell

by DaBolts on Sep 25, 2008 8:22 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think the real point is that their “strength” isn’t all that strong. I will concede that their personnel is stronger with regard to the running game, but it’s inarguable that their passing game has been more successful.

by Richard on Sep 25, 2008 9:37 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

OK

Maybe we aren’t so far apart. Let me ask this; if you have a team that throws one pass all season and it goes for a TD, and they run the rest of the season and are dead average; are these statistics going to say that their passing game has been phenomenally successful compared to the rest of the league? I would think a few things are distorting the stat in that instance, one is you don’t have a valid sample size, but secondly a team so completely oriented to the run is going to tend to catch folks off guard and statistically be more successful; however if they went to more passing and defenses were more prepared their statistical success could well melt away.

Looking on the outside football website, every time I go to the methods of calculation, it comes up ‘page not found’. Is there somewhere a description of exactly how these values are arrived at?

"If two hitherto rival football teams, under the influence of brotherly love, decided to co-operate in placing the football first beyond one goal and then beyond the other, no one's happiness would be increased" Bertrand Russell

by DaBolts on Sep 26, 2008 8:22 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

But

That would then show up in their total offense numbers. If you were just as bad running as you were passing and you did both equally your overall offensive numbers would go to 0. In this case, the Raiders try to run more than they pass and that shows up because their total is slightly negative, but the rushing and passing are equal and opposite. Stats may be sometimes subjective, but there is usually another that will counterbalance the subjectivity.

Obviously common sense has to play a roll. I think some of their effective passing game was garbage time in the Denver game against a bad defense. So their passing offense is probably not as good as it seems. But I don’t think it makes their running offense any better just because their statistically productive passing offense is an illusion.

Homer: Ohhhh, The Denver Broncos.
Marge: Whats wrong with the Denver Broncos?
Homer: Marge you just don't understand football.

by Wonko on Sep 26, 2008 10:14 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Football Outsiders calculations

They recently “upgraded” their site to a new format. Some of the pages haven’t been migrated yet. I’ll see if I can find some old links that show their methods.

Until then, some of the explanation is available on wikipedia.

Homer: Ohhhh, The Denver Broncos.
Marge: Whats wrong with the Denver Broncos?
Homer: Marge you just don't understand football.

by Wonko on Sep 26, 2008 10:17 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Page is back up

Methods for Stats.

Homer: Ohhhh, The Denver Broncos.
Marge: Whats wrong with the Denver Broncos?
Homer: Marge you just don't understand football.

by Wonko on Sep 26, 2008 12:32 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Thanks Wonko

For what its worth a lot of Raiders fans want to see Kiffin air it out more, their take is that he is being overly cautious with Russell.

"If two hitherto rival football teams, under the influence of brotherly love, decided to co-operate in placing the football first beyond one goal and then beyond the other, no one's happiness would be increased" Bertrand Russell

by DaBolts on Sep 26, 2008 1:20 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It would show their passing as above average and their rushing as average and that would be accurate. However, that’s free from context. The stats tell us what happened not why.

by Richard on Sep 26, 2008 3:09 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Raiders aren't going to score much on Sunday.

I’d say at most 14

People the world over have always been more impressed by the power of our example than by the example of our power.

by sdsuaztec4 on Sep 25, 2008 1:58 PM PDT   0 recs

Are we predicting soon?

I’d have to agree with two TD’s at most. How about our offense?

by The Kipper on Sep 25, 2008 2:25 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Just put up the prediction post.

"If two hitherto rival football teams, under the influence of brotherly love, decided to co-operate in placing the football first beyond one goal and then beyond the other, no one's happiness would be increased" Bertrand Russell

by DaBolts on Sep 25, 2008 2:34 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

i've said it before i'll say it again

McFadden absolutely frightens me.

that being said, we are going to walk over these bums because one player does not an NFL offense make. that single-star BS works in college, but not with the big boys.

www.wellbelowthemendozaline.blogspot.com

by justdave on Sep 25, 2008 2:31 PM PDT   0 recs

Yeah, he's scary good

I loved watching him while he was a Hog

by matto619 on Sep 25, 2008 4:13 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

he and Felix Jones in the backfield was almost unfair

especially when they ran the speed option with DMC as the QB and Jones at HB. just ridiculous. i think that game against SC that i attended he was responsible for like 370 yards of offense or something. let me look up the stats.

www.wellbelowthemendozaline.blogspot.com

by justdave on Sep 26, 2008 9:50 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

my bad

321 rushing yards. no mention of what Jones got on options that he started and i can’t find his passing yards from the game.

www.wellbelowthemendozaline.blogspot.com

by justdave on Sep 26, 2008 9:56 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

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