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Buffalo Rumblings and Ruminations

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1.  The Chargers ripped Deltha O'Neal pretty well, one of the reasons was the height mismatch.  I'm looking over your cornerbacks and seeing Terrence McGee at 5' 9".  It looks like he has two picks already this year, but does he have a problem with taller receivers in the league?  Also if you could go over how well your secondary is playing this year.

When you're playing the Bills, size doesn't matter in your receiving corps until you get to the red zone.  The Bills have struggled against teams that can make quick throws underneath and convert first downs off of those plays.  The Bills employ a predominant zone scheme, so they're built to prevent the big play.  They've done that well, but in game-planning that way, they've made themselves susceptible to a ball-control passing game.  The Cardinals worked that strategy beautifully.

I'm a firm believer that your pass defense is only as good as your pass rush.  The Bills got after quarterbacks well early this season, but their blitz packages haven't been as effective over the last few weeks.  Hopefully, two weeks to prepare for the Chargers will let them tweak their schemes and show San Diego some things they haven't seen yet.  If not, it won't matter how tall our corners are, because the Chargers will be in for a field day regardless.



2.  Your quarterback Trent Edwards is just returning from a concussion.  Do you expect that to affect his play at all?  Did you think it was a fair hit that Edwards took?

In most cases, I'd say that yes, playing two weeks after sustaining a pretty serious concussion would not bode well.  But the feeling all along has been that Trent will be good to go, and he basically affirmed that Monday in stating that he expects to play.

One of the small items holding Edwards back from being a top-flight signal caller is hesitancy.  He's remarkably decisive with the football considering the fact that he's only started 14 NFL games (the Bills are 9-5 in games he's started), but he's still prone to holding the football for a fraction of a second too long, particularly in the red zone.  I don't expect that hesitancy to be worsened by the concussion - and it's pretty minimal to begin with - but if there are going to be areas of Edwards' game that are easily effected by a concussion, this is one of them.

 

Star-divide

3.  When I think Buffalo, I'm expecting defense and a power running game.  Apart from the Cardinal game it looks like the defense is still there, but the Bills are averaging less than 100 yards per game rushing.  Is Lynch having an off year, or is there a new emphasis on the pass attack?

I wouldn't be so sure on the defense, first of all - because I'm not.  Yeah, the defense has been pretty solid, but we've played the Seahawks, Raiders and Rams, who are a combined 3-12 and have some of the worst offensive attacks in the league.  Competent attacks (Jacksonville, Arizona) have fared much better, and the Chargers are the team's stiffest challenge yet by far.

Buffalo is still a power running team, but they've been forced to get away from it because their run blocking has been infuriatingly inconsistent.  The Bills run what essentially amounts to a West Coast offense, so at the moment, they're throwing a lot of short stuff and taking chances deep to Lee Evans (27 yards per catch).  It's been effective in masking some of the issues in the running game, but it likely won't last.  Lynch himself is fine - he's still the same excellent back we saw as a rookie, and he's improved as a receiver - but the run blocking, particularly up the middle, is causing problems.  Obviously, we'd like to see that change ASAP.



4.  What do the Bills need to accomplish to beat the Chargers?

Time to bust out the boring football cliches, something I'm really good at.  If the Bills want to beat the Chargers, they need to control time of possession, win the turnover battle, stop the run and run the ball.  Sounds simple enough, right?  These cliches are cliches for a reason - they work, and they're essential when you're taking on an opponent as talented as San Diego.

Bottom line is this: the game is in Buffalo.  Good NFL teams win these types of games on their home turf.  We're coming off a bye week.  Taking a loss in this situation would be detrimental not in a standings sense, but in a fan psyche sense.  In my mind, this is a must-win.  And I think the Bills will find a way to get it done.



5.  In the draft the first round choice was Leodis McKelvin at cornerback.  We took Antoine Cason later in the round, who has looked terrific at nickel.  How has McKelvin done, and are there any other draftees that have impressed you?

I was a huge fan of Cason entering the draft, and am hardly surprised to hear that he's playing well.  McKelvin has looked like any rookie out of Troy would: lost at times, but really, really good at others.  Once he figures out how to eliminate the mental errors, he's going to be very good.  Until then, he's a liability.  Terrence McGee can't return to the lineup fast enough.

The only other rookies that have seen any playing time whatsoever are WR James Hardy (second round) and CB Reggie Corner (fourth round).  Corner only saw the field because of McGee's injury; otherwise, he's been inactive.  He didn't play a ton in Arizona.  Hardy, meanwhile, made a great TD grab in the fourth quarter in our 20-16 win over the Jaguars, but outside of that he's been highly non-existent.  It's Hardy that needs to produce as the season wears on; we saw some signs of that, as he grabbed three balls in Arizona.  We need more from the kid. 

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Buffalo fan here

Hi Bolters,

I post regularly on the Buffalo Rumblings site and pay particular attention to the Bills’ offensive line. In short, I watch what each linemen does on every play (even plays negated by penalty), see how often the Bills run against a stacked box, how often they are blitzed and so on.

Here’s a bit about the Bills-Cardinals game that might be of interest to Chargers’ fans:

Watching the game I thought the Cardinals blitzed far more often than they did. Would you believe they only blitzed on 7 of 31 (19.4%) of pass plays? It certainly seemed like they sent a lot more guys when I watched the game on Sunday afternoon. They generated pressure with 4 guys and did it largely by stunting. I think we can count on seeing the Chargers engage in the same sort of tactics next Sunday. Given that the Cardinals had as much, if not more, success stunting towards the right side of the offensive line as they did the left I don’t think we can hang this on Peters’ selfish actions this summer. It’s a problem that extends beyond any individual lineman.

As I suspected they would, the Cardinals stacked the box often. On 9 of 17 (52.9%) of run plays the Cardinals had at least 8 guys in the box. The Bills ran for 6 (!) yards on those 9 plays, or 0.7 yards per attempt. That’s beyond terrible. On the other 8 plays? 67 yards or 8.4 yards per attempt. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but I am expecting the Bills QB to check out of runs where San Diego has 8 in the box. Even with a FB/HB in the backfield and a TE on the line that leaves the Bills 1 blocker short. Turk needs to come up with some creative passes out of that formation when the box is stacked. We saw one against the Rams and Schouman picked up an important first down. Let’s hope Turk has more of those up his sleeves.

The Bills ran through the left c-gap 4 times for 17 yards (4.3 ypa), left b-gap 2 times for 2 yards (1.0 ypa) and a TD, 2 times through the a-gap for -4 yards (-2.0 ypa) largely due to the fumble by Lynch, 4 times for 14 yards (3.5 ypa) through the right b-gap and 5 times for 47 yards (9.4 ypa) through the right c-gap. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the ypa improves the farther away from Fowler the run goes.

So, expect the Chargers to get pressure by stunting instead of blitzing, stacking the box (which will give Evans opportunities to get open deep) to stop the run, and for your NT to have a Pro Bowl type performance against center Melvin Fowler. As you can see above, the Bills don’t run well up the middle—where 3-4 defenses are vulnerable to the run. This is due largely to Fowler’s inability to take on even run-of-the-mill DTs. There’s no reason why the Chargers’ defense shouldn’t dominate Buffalo’s offense on Sunday. Naturally, I hope that doesn’t come to pass but I’m bracing for a throttling.

by Ron From NM on Oct 16, 2008 12:04 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Great Post

Thanks, hopefully Jamal’s knees will show up on Sunday; he’s a Pro Bowler NT when they do but has been inconsistent this year. I’m very interested to see how much pressure the Bills can bring; and if Jammer can hold up against Evans. This should be a great game; though both teams are dinged up a bit.

"Football is a physical sport, sometimes you have a disagreement on what's going on, and you have a discussion about it." Chris Dielman

by Brian (DaBolts) on Oct 16, 2008 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

QB messing things up

It’s possible it seemed like the pressure was getting to the QB more often because the QB wasn’t the best at getting rid of the ball. I get the feeling that a QB who is capable of getting rid of the ball quickly by looking at shorter range targets (like Edwards) will have an easier time than a QB that only looks downfield for targets and ends up spending too much time in the pocket (like Losman). So while the Cardinals pressure was getting home, expectations for the Charger’s pass rush on Sunday should only be based off of San Diego’s pass rush ability and the Bills pass protection abilities prior to the AZ game. I consider any games where Losman plays the majority of snaps irrelevant when evaluating similar scenarios with Edwards back there. They are different QBs.

Homer: Ohhhh, The Denver Broncos.
Marge: Whats wrong with the Denver Broncos?
Homer: Marge you just don't understand football.

by Wonko on Oct 16, 2008 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Geesh Ron

Don’t you think the Bills will be fired up at home? I think that is one reason the Chargers D shouldn’t dominate Buffalo’s O. Intangables always play into an outcome. Also, Turk’s game plan might be enough to compensate for Fowler…it could happen…

I am bracing for an awsome game. I don’t mean to fill up BFTB’s thread. I know the bolts are due to win the big one. I will be happy to see it happen. But this Sunday could be a rad game. BTW, gotta say Ron From NM is great with the numbers analysis, see you back at Rumblings.

by the Uncommon Denominator on Oct 16, 2008 12:46 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Thx for the post

Ron. Some in-depth stuff. I hope you’re correct.

We're gonna dazzle you with our super play.

by soulSD on Oct 16, 2008 1:04 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Weather.com

Says this sunday in Buffalo will be in the high 50s. So no big weather advantage.

For the record, this is not my attempt to imply subtly that Belichick is nothing without cheating and Tom Brady. Seriously. I am straight-out saying: Belichick is nothing without cheating and Tom Brady ~ DJ Gallo

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Oct 16, 2008 1:57 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

a what and a what?

never heard of em.

We're gonna dazzle you with our super play.

by soulSD on Oct 16, 2008 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

C'mon

Skaters and surfers wear beanies. And people on TV wear scarfs. Don’t be silly.

Homer: Ohhhh, The Denver Broncos.
Marge: Whats wrong with the Denver Broncos?
Homer: Marge you just don't understand football.

by Wonko on Oct 16, 2008 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ive never seen

a surfer wear a beanie, seems like it would get all wet.

We're gonna dazzle you with our super play.

by soulSD on Oct 16, 2008 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

There you go

Homer: Ohhhh, The Denver Broncos.
Marge: Whats wrong with the Denver Broncos?
Homer: Marge you just don't understand football.

by Wonko on Oct 17, 2008 2:38 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jay Culter on Philip Rivers

Cutler doesn’t like Rivers. Here’s what he said on Best Damn Sports Show

http://myspacetv.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=vids.individual&videoid=44731688

"You gotta get up awful early to fool Mr. Furley." ~Ad Rock

by O's Before Ho's on Oct 16, 2008 5:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Who cares

Cutler also thinks he’s better than John Elway and Brett Favre. Culter failed to see where Rivers leads him in every passing catagory. And in record as a starter. And in proper blood sugar.

For the record, this is not my attempt to imply subtly that Belichick is nothing without cheating and Tom Brady. Seriously. I am straight-out saying: Belichick is nothing without cheating and Tom Brady ~ DJ Gallo

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Oct 16, 2008 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

The “proper blood sugar” line may have crossed a line. It was also hilarious, so I’m conflicted.

by Richard Wade on Oct 16, 2008 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If he had died from diabetes,

it would have been over the line. why so serious?

We're gonna dazzle you with our super play.

by soulSD on Oct 16, 2008 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

its called DIabetes not

CRYabetes.

www.wellbelowthemendozaline.blogspot.com

by justdave on Oct 16, 2008 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

snap

We're gonna dazzle you with our super play.

by soulSD on Oct 16, 2008 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Please move this off the Buffalo preview folks

"Football is a physical sport, sometimes you have a disagreement on what's going on, and you have a discussion about it." Chris Dielman

by Brian (DaBolts) on Oct 17, 2008 7:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

sorry

couldnt help myself

www.wellbelowthemendozaline.blogspot.com

by justdave on Oct 17, 2008 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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